惯导速度信息辅助的被动雷达导引头量测误差抑制方法

针对被动雷达导引头由于受空间限制测角精度不高的问题,提出了一种基于弹目信息状态变量的扩展卡尔曼滤波方法。通过弹目信息状态变量(弹目距离、弹目视线方位角、弹目视线俯仰角)描述弹目相对位置信息,利用惯导速度信息构建基于弹目信息状态变量变化率的弹目相对运动模型。所提方法充分利用信息资源,抑制导引头量测随机误差,对于提高导弹的打击精度和攻击效果,具有重要的实际应用价值,仿真试验证明该算法的有效性。     

基于主观综合评判的作战仿真可信度评估方法研究

可信度是作战仿真的生命线,对作战仿真系统建设全生命周期进行校核、验证与确认(verification,validation and accreditation,VVA)是确保其可信度的重要途径。合适的评估方法是进行可信度评估的前提条件。在全面分析与比较已有可信度评估方法基础上,针对作战仿真可信度评估中突出主题专家作用的特点,提出了一种基于主观综合评判的可信度评估方法,重点设计了基于专长权的主题专家权重定量计算方法。这些方法都被应用于"××作战仿真系统"的可信度评估工作中。实践表明,本文的研究对于作战仿真系统等复杂仿真系统的可信度评估非常有效。     

军用飞机改进改型研制费用的参数估算法

首先分析并建立了军用飞机改进改型研制的费用分解结构,阐明了与新研飞机在各分项费用上的差别。基于当量工程的概念提出了用减缩系数来估算改进改型研制的费用修正和各分项费用的减缩系数的估计方法,结合现有成熟的参数估算模型建立了相应的改进改型研制的费用估算模型。最后,以某型飞机的改型研制费用为例进行了实例分析,结果表明方法与模型具有较好的有效性和实用性。     

新型伪噪声雷达波形研究

研究一种新型伪噪声雷达信号波形,该波形采用了多个脉冲组,每组脉冲中调相的伪码相同,相邻组内的脉冲调相所用的伪码捷变,同时每个脉组内的各脉冲频率捷变。理论推导和仿真分析了这种雷达信号波形的模糊函数,仿真结果表明这种信号具备良好的距离和速度分辨力及低截获概率,能测高速和远距离目标,工程上也易于产生和处理,具备良好的应用前景。     

Deterrence under nuclear asymmetry: THAAD and the prospects for missile defense on the Korean peninsula

The 2016 decision to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korea has generated multitude of intensely politicized issues and has proved highly controversial. This has made it challenging to alleviate, let alone clarify, points of analytical and policy tensions. We instead disaggregate and revisit two fundamental questions. One is whether THAAD could really defend South Korea from North Korean missiles. We challenge the conventional “qualified optimism” by giving analytical primacy to three countermeasures available to defeat THAAD–use of decoys, tumbling and spiral motion, and outnumbering. These countermeasures are relatively inexpensive to create but exceedingly difficult to offset. Second, we assess the optimal way to ensure South Korean national security against North Korean missiles. By examining the balance of capability and issues of credibility/commitment, we show that the U.S. extended deterrence by punishment remains plentiful and sufficiently credible even without enhancing the current defense capability.     

线性模型的海基制导系统误差分离方法性能分析

利用传统制导工具系统误差线性回归模型,对Bayes估计、主成分分析以及正则化分析三种改进的分离方法进行了比较,分析了它们在工程应用上的优缺点,给出了实际应用时的限制因素;同时结合海基导弹特有的初始状态误差,设计了整体估计、分段估计以及迭代估计三种估计策略,给出了相应的分离步骤。仿真结果表明,文中给出的三种误差分离方法在不同的评价标准下具有不同的实际应用意义;而在弹道差评价标准以及方差评价标准下,分段估计和迭代估计策略下的误差分离结果要明显好于传统整体估计结果。     

系统复杂性及度量

复杂性是科学技术面临的挑战之一,研究系统复杂性有着重要意义。综述系统复杂性基本语义研究背景,分析国内外历史上对复杂性的界定及不同定义;针对复杂性的分类,以本体论和认识论分类为基本框架,吸纳最新的复杂性分类定义成果,重新对复杂性进行归类。在此基础上,对复杂性的度量指标进行分类阐述,对相应的数学工具进行归类说明。设计案例说明了复杂性概念分类及度量的有效性。     

【专栏】军事计量测试设备国产化发展构想

军事计量测试设备是武器装备计量保障体系的重要物质基础。为解决军事计量测试设备领域受到发达国家严重制约的问题,本文通过梳理军队计量测试设备国产化的现状,分析制约军队计量测试设备国产化的各种因素,提出了军事计量领域计量测试设备国产化发展的综合考虑和发展思路,即需求生成发布机制、联合攻关机制、设备定型机制、计量应用考核机制、推广应用机制和国产化审核机制等六种推进机制,同时从强化顶层谋划、加强资源统筹、加大经费投入及强化持续推进四个方面提出了措施建议,对推进军事计量测试设备国产化进程有一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。     

Direct ink writing of 3D-Honeycombed CL-20 structures with low critical size

3D-Honeycombed CL-20 structures with low critical size of detonation have been fabricated successfully for intelligent weapon systems using a micro-flow direct ink writing (DIW) technology. The CL-20-based explosive ink for DIW technology was prepared by a two-component adhesive system with waterborne polyurethane (WPU) and ethyl cellulose (EC). Not only the preparation of the explosive ink but also the principle of DIW process have been investigated systematically. The explosive ink displayed strong shear-thinning behavior that permitted layer-by-layer deposition from a fine nozzle onto a substrate to produce complex shapes. The EC content was varied to alter the pore structure distribution and rheological behavior of ink samples after curing. The deposited explosive composite materials are of a honeycombed structure with high porosity, and the pore size distribution increases with the increase of EC content. No phase change was observed during the preparation process. Both WPU and EC show good compatibility with CL-20 particles. Apparently high activation energy was realized in the CL-20-based composite ink compared with that of the refined CL-20 due to the presence of non-energetic but stable WPU. The detonation performance of the composite materials can be precisely controlled by an adjustment in the content of binders. The 3D honeycombed CL-20 structures, which are fabricated by DIW technology, have a very small critical detonation size of less than 69 μm, as demonstrated by wedge shaped charge test. The ink can be used to create 3D structures with complex geometries not possible with traditional manufacturing techniques, which presents a bright future for the development of intelligent weapon systems.     

An approach for predicting digital material consumption in electronic warfare

Electronic warfare is a modern combat mode, in which predicting digital material consumption is a key for material requirements planning (MRP). In this paper, we introduce an insensitive loss function (ε) and propose a ε-SVR-based prediction approach. First, we quantify values of influencing factors of digital equipments in electronic warfare and a small-sample data on real consumption to form a real combat data set, and preprocess it to construct the sample space. Subsequently, we establish the ε-SVR-based prediction model based on “wartime influencing factors - material consumption” and perform model training. In case study, we give 8 historical battle events with battle damage data and predict 3 representative kinds of digital materials by using the proposed approach. The results illustrate its higher accuracy and more convenience compared with other current approaches. Taking data acquisition controller prediction as an example, our model has better prediction performance (RMSE = 0.575 7, MAPE (%) = 12.037 6 and R² = 0.996 0) compared with BP neural network model (RMSE = 1.272 9, MAPE (%) = 23.577 5 and R² = 0.980 3) and GM (1, 1) model (RMSE = 2.095 0, MAPE (%) = 24.188 0 and R² = 0.946 6). The fact shows that the approach can be used to support decision-making for MRP in electronic warfare.