Why did Sudan Lose a small war in Southern Sudan?

ABSTRACT

When on the wrong end of an asymmetry in the projection of hard power, weaker sides countenance the grim arithmetic of avoiding direct and massed confrontations. Invariably, insurgents have over the ages tended to employ indirect tactical methods to render their stronger opponents ineffective. Ultimately – interest asymmetry, regime type, asymmetries of strategy, and external intervention – combine in a complex interplay and pattern, to militate against a strong side. In Sudan, these factors interacted throughout the civil wars to produce regional autonomy and finally an independent South Sudan in 2011. Similar strategic logic had confronted many large African states battling insurgencies in Ethiopia, Angola, Nigeria, Zaire, and apartheid-era South Africa. Oftentimes, weakening public resolve has caused these governments to accommodate, capitulate or withdraw even if they try not to blink. Notwithstanding the regime type, it can be concluded that the majority of strong actors are prone to fail in a protracted, asymmetric conflict. Hence, the notion of linking victory in counterinsurgency to the degree of openness (democratic polyarchies); or closeness (totalitarianism) – is still valid but highly contestable in the case of Africa’s large dysfunctional states.     

刍议抛锚式教学策略在教育学课程教学中的应用

抛锚式教学把学生设于真实的情境中,让学生达到认知冲突,让学生自己去分析问题、学习解决该问题所需的知识,逐步地解决问题。作为教师职前教育的一门重要的基础课程教育学,其教学效果一直不尽如人意。而抛锚式教学法为教育学的教学模式改啦提供了一种新的思路。     

Market entry strategy in the presence of market spillovers and efficiency differentiation

Firms form various alliances or use brand extensions to enter new markets in order to improve their operational efficiency and create a positive spillover. However, they do not always know the implications of these strategies for market entry and multimarket competition because the sale of products in one market can have negative spillover effects on product sales in other markets. We present an analytical framework to examine whether and how (i.e., by choosing alliance entry or independent entry) competing firms should enter a market in a situation where market spillovers occur when a firm enters a spillover-producing market to sell products that may increase or decrease the consumers' willingness to pay for products in the primary market. Our analysis shows that the operational efficiency (or quality differentiation ability) of firms in a spillover-producing market varies, and hence, the impact of market spillovers differs for firms. We identify the key factors, such as bargaining power, brand value difference in the primary market, and the extent of efficiencies and spillovers, that determine the firms benefitting from the different entry strategies. Specifically, we show that firms would be more willing to choose an alliance strategy to enter a spillover-producing market if the negative spillover is small and alliance efficiency is high. In contrast, if an alliance entry is not favored, the firms' relative operational efficiency is crucial for them to decide whether to enter the market independently under moderate spillover conditions. Finally, we show the implications of market entry strategies for managers.     

众包标签的双重置信度推断算法

标记者的知识水平、评价标准等均具有显著差异,导致收集到的标签质量参差不齐,提高标签和学习模型的质量对众包标签中学习起着关键作用。针对众包标签推断问题,提出了一种双重置信度推断算法,分别从数据分布特征及标签信息两方面计算得到标记者置信度,再通过此置信度推断数据集的集成标签,以此提高集成标签的质量。实验结果表明,与其他仅使用标签信息的推断算法相比,所提算法可以得到更优结果。     

含脉冲负载的综合电力系统储能优化配置研究

考虑到舰船环境限制和高能脉冲负载对储能的需求,有必要对储能装置进行合理的选型和优化配置,来提升综合电力系统性能。为此,基于带权极小模理想点法和层次分析法,提出了一种储能装置性能评价函数,并以其为优化目标,进行储能装置优化配置。所提出的评价函数充分考虑系统需求和脉冲负载特性,以储能装置体积、质量和经济性作为评价函数主要组成部分,同时考虑功率、能量、电压、荷电状态等约束,建立优化配置模型,并采用差分进化算法进行求解。以高性能锂电池和超级电容器为例,对所提模型进行求解计算,结果表明在所给权重系数下锂电池性能更优,更适用于综合电力系统,并给出了优化配置后的指导方案。     

Strategy selection: an info-gap methodology

The evaluation and selection of military strategy requires consideration of myriad factors – social, historical, political, geographical and technological – together with vast uncertainties encompassing all these domains. Info-gap decision theory is a conceptual framework that can support these deliberations and that has substantive implications for the formulation, evaluation and selection of strategic goals and of the means to attain them. In particular, while the analyst may desire to reliably achieve the best possible outcome, info-gap theory provides a critique of, and alternative to, the paradigm of optimizing the outcome of a decision. In selecting between strategy alternatives, the analyst must sometimes choose between one alternative that is purportedly better than another, but also more uncertain. Such a choice is a dilemma whose resolution requires the analyst to balance between the different predicted qualities of each alternative and their different vulnerabilities to uncertainty. The dilemma can be managed with the info-gap methodology of robustly satisfying critical requirements.     

全球治理视角下奥巴马政府太空战略解读

作为重要的全球公域范围与全球治理对象之一,太空既面临着日益严峻的资源、环境与安全问题,又不断彰显着其极具地缘政治意义的战略地位,攸关国家利益与安全。自进入太空时代以来,争夺和维持太空领域的领先地位一直是美国不懈追求的目标。美国的经济、军事等国家实力越来越依赖太空,同时其太空资产的脆弱性也愈发凸显。面对新的国际国内形势与外空态势的复合挑战,奥巴马政府适时调整了美国的太空战略。文章以全球公域和全球治理为切入视角,在分析太空领域全球治理现状的基础上,从太空活动行为准则的制定、太空国际合作的深入、太空军备竞赛的规制三个层面解读奥巴马政府的新版太空战略,并探讨其深层次的动因与影响,进而为中国参与太空领域的全球治理提供有益的理论支撑与现实参考。     

装备保障综合演练风险分析

采用工作结构分解(Work Breakdown Structure,WBS)和风险结构分解法(Risk Breakdown Structure,RBS)对装备保障综合演练全过程的风险及其风险因素进行了系统分析,得出了装备保障综合演练过程中存在的7类风险、24种风险因素;运用网络层次分析法(Analytic Network Process,ANP)对各种风险及其风险因素进行了评估,得出了其对装备保障综合演练风险影响的权重及排序。研究结果可为装备保障综合演练顺利开展,确保人员、装备安全提供参考。     

空投设备气囊缓冲系统的缓冲特性分析与匹配方法

采用解析分析法,根据排气口流量方程和载荷运动方程建立了无量纲的空投设备气囊缓冲过程数学模型,并根据此模型构造了气囊的匹配设计图。讨论了排气口面积、气囊高度、着陆初速度、载荷质量、气囊底面积及排气口开启压力等参数对气囊缓冲性能的影响,提出了空投设备气囊缓冲系统的参数匹配设计方法,为空投设备气囊缓冲系统的匹配设计提供了技术支持。     

山水自在 筑鉴非凡——重庆商务职业学院新校区规划设计

介绍了重庆商务职业学院新校区的校园规划策略。基于生态保护进行校园规划,通过建筑布局与地形环境的协调共生形成山水校园,结合历史人文营造个性化校园空间。同时,从生态保护、规划分区、建筑布局、景观空间等方面探讨文化内涵与个性校园的规划设计策略,得出自然山水形成了丰富的地域景观,并由此创造出具有个性的地区文化的结论。旨在为山地校园建设起到借鉴作用。