基于小世界网络模型的“梅特卡夫定律”反思

为了真正认清“网络中心战”的理论价值,对按照作为其理论支撑的“梅特卡夫定律”所规定的网络连接方式进行反思,定性分析了其带来的复杂性,并且应用小世界模型（WS）建立了复杂网络价值增益模型并进行了综合分析,发现实际网络不能够按照“梅特卡夫定律”的要求组网,指出“网络中心战”的理论缺陷,对我军信息化建设有一定的启示。     

How do wars end? A multidisciplinary enquiry

ABSTRACT

The cessation of military confrontations rarely coincides with the end of war. Legal and political matters continue after the last shot has been fired, civilians driven from their homes try to rebuild their houses and their lives, veterans need to adapt to their new role in civil society, and the struggle to define the history and the significance of past events only begins. In recent years, in particular, the changes in the character of contemporary warfare have created uncertainties across different disciplines about how to identify and conceptualise the end of war. It is therefore an opportune moment to examine how wars end from a multidisciplinary perspective that combines enquiries into the politics of war, the laws of war and the military and intellectual history of war. This approach enables both an understanding of how ‘the end’ as a concept informs the understanding of war in international relations, in international law and in history and a reconsideration of the nature of scientific method in the field of war studies as such.     

Reconsidering the Legal Equality of Combatants

ABSTRACT

The legal equality of combatants (LEC) is a fixture of international law and just war theory. Both scholars who embrace and those who reject the moral equality of combatants seem committed to the legal equality of combatants. Their reasons usually include pragmatic worries about unjust combatants committing even more harm if they were to be simply prohibited from fighting. In this article I argue that this sweeping commitment to the legal equality of combatants is mistaken and that it is often grounded in a misunderstanding of the way international law governs behavior.     

国外战储法规建设及启示

为贯彻落实依法治军、依法治储要求,推动战备物资储备工作法治化,提高我军战备物资储备法规体系建设的科学化水平,本文探讨了加强战备物资储备法规体系建设的必要性,深入分析了美国、日本、俄罗斯战储法规制度建设情况以及立法特点、实践经验。结合我军战储建设实际,借鉴他国的立法思路,在法规体系建设上提出基于立法规划、法规制订、立法研究、立法队伍建设等方面的措施建议,对建立适应我军新的编制体制和战储建设实际的法规制度具有重要作用。     

关于军事立法原则的思考

军事立法原则是军事立法中的重要理论问题。目前,我国军事法学著作对这一问题存在着理论上的分歧。我国军事立法原则应当包括:维护国家军事利益原则;保障高度集中统一原则;军事法制统一原则。     

对当前建立和完善消防监督管理法律制度的思考

分析当前消防监督管理法律规范存在的问题,提出建立和完善消防监督管理法律制度应遵循的基本思路,指出在市场经济条件下应当建立和完善的主要消防监督管理法律制度及措施。     

Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

大噪声背景下的纯方位导引方法

线导鱼雷攻击时对目标参数解算依赖小 ,这一特点有利于远距离隐蔽快攻和提高舰艇的作战和生存能力。在鱼雷发射后边解算边导引实时修正雷达误差 ,可以提高鱼雷自导发现目标的概率 ;导引过程中进行人工干预 ,可以提高鱼雷抗干扰能力。在无目标运动要素的条件下 ,对线导鱼雷攻击水面目标的纯方位导引法进行研究 ,提出一种较为有效的导引方法     

军事装备采购邀请招标的对象数量法律规范研究

招标采购因其管理规范性和采购过程的透明性,逐渐成为我国军事装备采购的主要方式之一。国家军事法规和规章规范了公开招标和邀请招标两种军事装备招标采购方式。本文对我国部分军事法规和军事规章中的军事装备邀请招标相关法律规范进行了梳理,并通过与我国招标投标法、招标投标法实施条例等法律法规的对照分析,发现目前我国相关军事法规和军事规章中关于军事装备邀请招标采购的对象数量的相关规定与我国招标投标法存在不一致之处,其规定本身也存在不尽完善之处。最后,根据我国立法体系,提出应按照招标投标法的规定,进一步完善我国军事法规和军事规章中邀请招标的相关法律规范,以更好地提升军事装备采购的质量,推进我国国防和军队现代化建设。     

现代海洋法与我国边防管理工作

现代海洋法对建立世界海洋新制度、维护海洋新秩序发挥了积极作用,对我国海上边防管理工作也带来了深刻影响。为应对这种影响,需要进一步创新工作机制,规范出海船舶的许可和查验措施,健全海上航行船舶的监控识别制度,增加海上巡航监管的力度,及时防范和打击各种违法犯罪活动,以维护我国海洋权益和海洋安全稳定。