Icons Off the Mark

In two landmark articles, longtime scholars Kenneth N. Waltz and Thomas C. Schelling have re-emphasized the utility of nuclear deterrence over nuclear nonproliferation (Waltz) and nuclear disarmament (Schelling). While the thrust of the articles is seemingly different, both are rooted in the same intellectual ground: an epistemology that assumes problem-free inferences, drawn from past experiences, are applicable in future scenarios; a foundational rooting in strategic rationality that entangles them in unsolvable contradictions concerning comparable risks of different nuclear constellations, namely deterrence versus proliferation and disarmament; and a bias in framing the empirical record that makes nuclear deterrence more conducive to security than nuclear disarmament. The common normative-practical denominator, then, is to let a nuclear weapon-free world appear both less desirable and less feasible than it might actually be.     

The Importance of Safeguards Culture

International safeguards is the system of measures put in place by the International Atomic Energy Agency and states to ensure nuclear programs remain dedicated to peaceful purposes. This international safeguards system consists of agreements, inspections, and evaluations that have never considered the safeguards culture of a state or facility. Neither a common definition nor an understanding of safeguards culture is internationally recognized. This article provides an analysis of the concept of safeguards culture and gauges its value to the international safeguards community. The authors explore distinctions among safeguards culture, safeguards compliance, and safeguards performance, and suggest possible indicators of safeguards culture and methods to promote a strong, positive safeguards culture.     

Deterrence in the Gulf War

A recently published collection of captured Iraqi records offers an opportunity to better understand Saddam Hussein's perception of US and Israeli deterrence signals, affording innovative insights into the reasons behind Iraq's restraint from using weapons of mass destruction against Israeli targets during the 1991 Gulf War. This article tests a wide range of suggested hypotheses, and suggests that US and Israeli deterrence played only a minimal role in dissuading Iraqi use of WMD. The article concludes with some thoughts on the practical implications, particularly on the effectiveness of a “no-first-use” nuclear policy.     

ESCAPE FROM NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

Since the post-World War II genesis of nuclear deterrence, two presidential initiatives have been presented to deliver humanity from the threat of its failure. The first was the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), a constellation of space- and ground-based systems that President Ronald Reagan envisioned would render nuclear weapons “impotent and obsolete.” The second is President Barack Obama's roadmap to “a world without nuclear weapons,” commonly referred to as “Global Zero.” While these proposals appear to have little in common, deeper investigation reveals a number of provocative similarities in motivation and presentation. Moreover, both generated fierce debate, often with ideological overtones, about their strategic desirability and technical feasibility. We use these parallels, as well as prominent dissimilarities, to draw lessons from the SDI experience that can be applied to the debate over Global Zero.     

DIVERGING NUCLEAR PATHWAYS IN SOUTH ASIA

Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb, by Feroz Hassan Khan. Stanford University Press, 2012. 544 pages, $29.95.

Managing India's Nuclear Forces, by Verghese Koithara. Brookings Institution Press, 2012. 304 pages, $59.95.     

THE MYTH OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

Nuclear deterrence is sometimes treated as a known quantity—a definite thing that keeps us safe and ensures our security. It has also often been used as a justification for possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear deterrence, however, is based on an unexamined notion: the belief that the threat to destroy cities provides decisive leverage. An examination of history (including recent reinterpretations of the bombing of Hiroshima) shows that destroying cities rarely affects the outcome of wars. How is it possible that an action that is unlikely to be decisive can make an effective threat? Recent work on terrorism suggests that attacks against civilians are often not only ineffective but also counterproductive. And a review of the practical record of nuclear deterrence shows more obvious failures than obvious successes. Given this, the record of nuclear deterrence is far more problematic than most people assume. If no stronger rationale for keeping these dangerous weapons can be contrived, perhaps they should be banned.     

基于高压脉冲等离子体技术的TNT废水处理研究

针对报废弹药处理过程中产生的TNT废水毒性大、处理难的特点,分析TNT废水的特性和当前处理方法现状,提出基于高压脉冲等离子体技术的TNT废水处理方法;分析脉冲等离子体对废水的处理降解机理,给出双向窄脉冲电源和气液固三相反应器的设计方案．研究表明,利用脉冲放电等离子体技术可提高TNT废水的处理效率,有效解决报废弹药TNT废水处理难题．     

调频Costas编码信号成像算法研究

结合Costas编码信号和线性调频信号进行波形设计,建模分析了这种信号的成像方法,从参数设置的角度研究了抑制距离像泄露和栅瓣效应的方法．根据采样频率的变化,研究了细化距离像的冗余问题,并通过距离像拼接算法实现所有距离单元成像,通过脉压阶段的加窗使距离单元的非均匀加权问题得到改善,对这种信号形式的抗干扰性能进行了仿真分析．     

基于最短拦截时间的异面拦截机动轨道设计与优化

本文构建了单脉冲机动在燃耗约束下的最短时间拦截轨道设计模型与求解方法,将用数学泛函求边值问题转换为高次代数方程的求解计算,并用牛顿迭代法进行快速寻根,仿真结果表明模型及算法准确、有效,满足精度要求。     

脉冲幅度特性分析的相控阵雷达识别技术

为有效识别相控阵雷达,提出了一种基于截获脉冲幅度特性分析的识别方法。该方法根据相控阵雷达与常规机械扫描雷达的扫描方式存在很大差异的特点,建立侦察设备截获脉冲的幅度模型,并通过仿真得到不同体制雷达被截获的脉冲幅度特性。然后求得不同体制雷达被截获的脉冲序列幅度特性与正弦序列幅度特性的相似系数,以此为依据来识别相控阵雷达。最后,通过比较实验证明了该方法的有效性。