The Demand for Military Expenditure in Europe: The Role of Fiscal Space in the Context of a Resurgent Russia

A variant of established work on the demand for military expenditure is developed based on a practical concept of fiscal space from the perspective of short-term government choices concerning public expenditures. A new indicator, referred to as fiscal capacity, is defined and used as a candidate explanatory variable in an empirical model of European defence spending over the 2007–2016 period. Fiscal capacity is found to outperform simpler measurements of economic conditions, notably GDP growth forecasts, in explaining changes in defence spending efforts as a share of GDP. Regarding security environment variables, the results suggest that Russia has recently come to be seen as a potential military threat by European nations, leading to defence spending increases, the more so the shorter the distance to stationed or deployed Russian forces, and particularly so by those European nations that have a land border with Russia. A prospective exercise is then carried out in order to assess the capacity of EU member states that are also members of NATO to reach NATO’s 2% goal for defence spending over a mid-term horizon.     

Excess procurement strategies by a dominant buyer under constrained supply

Supply chains are often characterized by the presence of a dominant buyer purchasing from a supplier with limited capacity. We study such a situation where a single supplier sells capacity to an established and more powerful buyer and also to a relatively less powerful buyer. The more powerful buyer enjoys the first right to book her capacity requirements at supplier's end, and then the common supplier fulfills the requirement of the less powerful buyer. We find that when the supplier's capacity is either too low (below the lower threshold) or too high (above the higher threshold), there is no excess procurement as compared to the case when supplier has infinite capacity. When the supplier's capacity is between these two thresholds, the more powerful buyer purchases an excess amount in comparison to the infinite capacity case.     

数字化部队作战能力评估指标体系构建

探讨了数字化部队作战能力评估的指导思想和原则,从现代战争系统模型分解图的指标构建思想出发,以系统科学与工程理论为指导,构建数字化部队战争系统模型分解图,将现代战争系统分解成部队与武器子系统、电子信息子系统、指挥决策子系统和综合保障子系统,并分别对各子系统的能力指标内涵进行了详细解释,用信息系统描述了各指标体系的能力构成。     

白炽灯对棉质材料的引燃性能研究

通过对不同功率白炽灯引燃100％棉质材料的研究，分析了白炽灯引燃棉质材料引发火灾的危险性。利用半导体点温计分别对不同功率白炽灯表面及棉布的温度进行记录，根据温度随时间的变化情况、可燃物被引燃情况，分析了不同功率白炽灯对棉布的引燃性能。     

弹(箭)体级间连接结构准静载失效实验与数值预示

级间螺栓法兰连接是导弹(火箭)常见的连接方式,但破坏了整体结构连续性,且承载能力薄弱,在外荷载作用下易发生失效而使整弹(箭)结构强度丧失。根据实际导弹(火箭)连接结构特点,简化设计并制作了一组原理性实验件,设计了准静载加载实验测试系统和螺栓响应信号传感器,进行了两次准静载失效实验,并利用ABAQUS软件建立了对应的有限元仿真模型。根据实验效果和实测数据,分析了连接结构在准静载荷载作用下的失效机理,并对比验证发现有限元模型数值模拟效果和精度与实验吻合较好。研究结论可为弹(箭)体级间连接结构承载能力和失效实验设计提供参考。     

Capacity expansion under a service‐level constraint for uncertain demand with lead times

For a service provider facing stochastic demand growth, expansion lead times and economies of scale complicate the expansion timing and sizing decisions. We formulate a model to minimize the infinite horizon expected discounted expansion cost under a service‐level constraint. The service level is defined as the proportion of demand over an expansion cycle that is satisfied by available capacity. For demand that follows a geometric Brownian motion process, we impose a stationary policy under which expansions are triggered by a fixed ratio of demand to the capacity position, i.e., the capacity that will be available when any current expansion project is completed, and each expansion increases capacity by the same proportion. The risk of capacity shortage during a cycle is estimated analytically using the value of an up‐and‐out partial barrier call option. A cutting plane procedure identifies the optimal values of the two expansion policy parameters simultaneously. Numerical instances illustrate that if demand grows slowly with low volatility and the expansion lead times are short, then it is optimal to delay the start of expansion beyond when demand exceeds the capacity position. Delays in initiating expansions are coupled with larger expansion sizes. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

基于Floyd算法的常规导弹连续波次作战运输规划

为提高常规导弹连续波次作战效能，对常规导弹连续波次作战运输规划问题进行研究。以Floyd算法为基础，首先生成了作战机动区域的交通网络最短路径、距离矩阵；其次将常规导弹连续波次作战运输过程分解为不同阶段，以运输过程中的整体暴露时间最短为目标，构建了初始规划方案0-1整数规划模型；然后考虑道路通行量及地域容量限制，对初始规划方案中存在的地域容量超过限制及单行道路中会车、超车情况进行逐步循环优化，以得到最佳运输规划方案；最后选择了一个作战案例想定，通过Matlab编程对案例进行了求解，得到了针对此案例的最佳运输规划方案，验证了模型的正确性和算法的有效性。     

指挥院校英语课堂团队教学策略的实验研究

培养指挥类军事院校学员的团队精神，强化团队意识，把建立有效的激励机制等方法贯穿于教学的各个环节中。团队教学方法不仅可以提高指挥类军校学员的团队协作精神，同时团队教学策略又能显著提高指挥类军校学员的英语口语能力。     

集团军跨域应急作战装备保障能力建设研究

加强应急作战装备保障能力建设,是提高战斗力的重要组成部分。本文针对新体制、新形势下的军队战争形态、使命任务和训练要求,分析了集团军跨域应急作战装备保障的主要特点和当前装备保障存在的不足,并在此基础上,从构建理论体系和装备保障平台、人才队伍建设,装备保障模式以及装备保障实战化训练五个方面给出了集团军跨域应急作战装备保障能力建设和应对措施。     

More military base closure? Considering the alternatives*

Despite multiple base closing rounds, the United States Department of Defense still has excess base capacity, and thus President Trump and high-level Defense Department officials are calling for more base closure through the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process. However, another BRAC may not be the optimal solution, because simple base closure is not an efficient way to reduce surplus base capacity. Thus, Defense Department officials should consider other methods to reduce surplus capacity, including reduction in base size, leasing excess base property, or transferring it to another government agency for a variety of alternative uses. The surplus capacity issue also offers an opportunity to DOD to reassess base utilization, to update base requirements with current and future force structure. While BRAC focuses on American military bases, the process and alternatives also have international applications.