“萨德”入韩引发的地缘政治危机及中国的对策

2016年年初以来,朝鲜先后进行了第四次、第五次核试验,在此背景下,韩国国防部宣布,韩美同意在韩国部署末段高空区域防御系统——"萨德"导弹防御系统,朝鲜半岛地区风云再起。美韩此举使原本不安的东北亚局势更加紧张,诱发并恶化着东北亚地区大国家间潜存的"安全困境"。韩国决定部署"萨德"不仅严重僵化了中韩的国际关系,使得原本对峙局面下的朝韩两国局势更加紧张,更破坏了东北亚军事战略均衡,地区"新冷战"格局逐步形成。     

Expansion of Chinese maritime power in the Indian Ocean: implications for India

This paper examines the ongoing expansion of China’s maritime power in the Indian Ocean region and analyses its potential impact on the extant balance of Sino-Indian maritime power in the region. It posits that the expanding Chinese maritime power in the Indian Ocean could seriously challenge India’s geostrategic advantage in the near future and that India can no longer take for granted its strategic location at the centre of the Indian Ocean nor the strength of its historical ties with the various regional states. It further argues that the current Indian maritime strategy for the Indian Ocean region, to be the “net security provider” for the entire region, is unsustainable and thus needs to be reviewed and rebuilt leveraging the geographic advantage enjoyed by India over China in the Indian Ocean.     

Perspectives for the development of key industrial capabilities for Canada’s defence sector

With the Canada First Defence Strategy, Canada has put forth a major opportunity to reconcile national security imperatives and industrial policy. The Jenkins Report (2013) set out to examine ways to use that procurement effort to foster key industrial capabilities (KICs) that would put the Canadian defence industry at an advantage both nationally and internationally. The Canadian defence industry should then develop highly focused capabilities with a view to moving up global value chains. As such, KICs that hold the best potential should be selected. They should be sustained through a range of strategies that are however contingent on the elimination of policy gaps. This leads to a balancing act between the need to control intellectual property assets versus accessing them in a world where national boundaries are eroded. Canada’s industry should target opportunities outside North America while continuing to focus on better integration with the North American industry.     

Drone Strikes and Grand Strategy: Toward a Political Understanding of the Uses of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Attacks in US Security Policy

This article analyzes the political utility of US drone strikes theoretically and deductively. Placing strikes within the context of the theorized political functions of force and considering how they fit into two grand strategies, restraint and selective engagement, I argue that these strikes buy the United States relatively little in the way of political effects assuring its own security because the terrorism threat they are intended to combat is a limited one within the skein of US global interests. Furthermore, their contribution to counter-terrorism efforts is likely to diminish with the adoption of armed drones by non-state actors. Drone strikes can, however, provide leverage over recalcitrant US client states while reassuring liberal partners and giving them some leverage over US choices. In addition, within the counter-terrorism sphere, drone strikes are less likely to inflame popular opinion than are alternative uses of force. This analysis contributes to an increasingly rigorous examination of the strikes’ role in US foreign and security policy.     

射频隐身反隐身E&V系统的设计与实现

针对战机射频隐身性能很难评估的现实问题,提出一种射频隐身反隐身实验与验证半实物仿真系统的设计与实现方法。该系统不仅能对战机的射频隐身性能进行验证,同时还可以对飞机的隐身波形、辐射策略等设计提供理论依据和实验支撑。在分析辐射信号模型以及截获模型的基础上,详细介绍了该系统的各功能组成和结构框图。该系统可以开展对于射频隐身的作战需求、管控模型、使用准则等方面的定量研究,对于提高战机的生存能力、突防能力和作战能力具有重要的意义。     

策略不确定条件下基于高阶超博弈的军事对抗决策方法

军事对抗决策中面临的一个主要问题是难以确定敌方的策略集。基于超博弈分析策略不确定条件下的军事对抗决策问题。在分析超博弈中信念迭代原理的基础上,提出了基于高阶超博弈的对抗决策方法。将高阶信念中的结果反思到低阶信念,并最终反思到一阶信念中,将己方的决策建立在对敌方可能决策的分析的基础上。使得己方的决策具有针对性且更加合理。以二战中西线战役为例验证了方法的可行性和有效性。     

航天器在轨防碰撞自主规避策略

论文提出了航天器与空间目标距离较近时的自主规避策略。分析了航天器与目标的相对运动模型,将相对运动分解为视线瞬时旋转平面内的运动与该平面的转动。对视线瞬时平面内的运动进行了分析,推导了航天器的最佳规避方向。探讨了在三维惯性空间中该方向的确定方法。通过仿真分析,对比了航天器具有不同规避加速度和不同探测距离时,通过机动所得脱靶量的大小,验证了航天器近距离自主规避策略的有效性。     

大学生问题行为及对策浅析

本文从心理学的角度分析了大学生常见的问题行为,对问题行为的性质、外部表现、心理特征及应对措施作了详尽分析,集中讨论了人格不适、失恋、考试焦虑及人格障碍等方面的问题,以期有助于大学生问题行为的处理。     

基于分合粒子群算法的多无人机任务重分配

多UAV在执行任务过程中,战场环境以及UAV编队状态的改变将导致原有的分配计划失效或效率降低,因此有必要重新分配任务。针对多无人机任务重分配问题,首先建立了相应的数学模型。其次运用分组基础上的任务重分配策略进行任务分配,提出了改进的K均值聚类算法进行初步分组,再在分组的基础下,提出了分合粒子群优化算法进行组内任务分配。最后进行实验仿真。实验结果与分析表明基于分合粒子群算法的任务重分配方法能有效地满足多变的战场环境要求。     

一种改进的SIR粒子滤波方法

SIR粒子滤波算法在重采样无法进行时可能失效,详细分析了算法失效的原因,并针对此问题提出了基于PSO的改进方法,该方法利用PSO的智能寻优机制引导重要性抽样的粒子移向高似然区,从而确保重采样过程的顺利进行。仿真试验表明,提出的改进方法可以有效解决SIR算法因重采样无法进行而导致的失效问题。