THE PEACE DIVIDEND EFFECT OF TURKISH CONVERGENCE TO THE EU: A MULTI‐REGION DYNAMIC CGE MODEL ANALYSIS FOR GREECE AND TURKEY

This paper examines the peace dividend effect of Turkish convergence to EU membership. By employing a multi‐region dynamic CGE model, we examine the prospect for conflict resolution if Turkey becomes an EU member. The model allows us to analyse several scenarios that imply varying amounts of reduction of the military expenditure/GDP ratios. On the one hand, this change will cause a decrease in sectoral demand for military expenditures, while on the other hand, reallocation of the reduced expenditure on (i) education, (ii) tax decrease, and (iii) infrastructure, should have a huge growth impact. Our dynamic CGE simulation experiments emphasize the economic gain for all parties involved.     

基于节点映射的武器装备需求生成方法

针对目前武器装备需求分析过程中,作战任务域向装备功能域映射方法可操作性不强的问题,研究了基于＂作战节点＂向＂系统节点＂映射的武器装备需求分析方法。该方法通过分析确定作战节点和系统节点,完成作战节点向系统节点映射、作战节点连接线向系统接口映射,最终得到装备系统需要的功能子系统及功能,较好地解决了需求映射过程中的随意性问题。     

四元数在火控中的应用

介绍了四元数的定义、代数运算、三角形式和指数形式以及球面表示形式;综述了四元数在刚体姿态控制,计算机三维图像旋转,彩色图像处理和信号处理分析等实际应用中表示的物理含义,着重探讨了四元数理论在火控领域中应用方法,并对比传统欧拉角火控模型,分析了应用四元数火控模型的优点。最后从理论上得出,四元数理论方法在常规兵器火控系统有广阔的应用前景。     

Equitable bandwidth allocation in content distribution networks

Applications for content distribution over networks, such as Video‐on‐Demand (VOD), are expected to grow significantly over time. Effective bandwidth allocation schemes that can be repeatedly executed must be deployed since new programs are often installed at various servers while other are deleted. We present a model for bandwidth allocation in a content distribution network that consists of multiple trees, where the root of each tree has a server that broadcasts multiple programs throughout the tree. Each network link has limited capacity and may be used by one or more of these trees. The model is formulated as an equitable resource allocation problem with a lexicographic maximin objective function that attempts to provide equitable service performance for all requested programs at the various nodes. The constraints include link capacity constraints and tree‐like ordering constraints imposed on each of the programs. We present an algorithm that provides an equitable solution in polynomial time for certain performance functions. At each iteration, the algorithm solves single‐link maximin optimization problems while relaxing the ordering constraints. The algorithm selects a bottleneck link, fixes various variables at their lexicographic optimal solution while enforcing the ordering constraints, and proceeds with the next iteration. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Bayesian strategies for dynamic pricing in e‐commerce

E‐commerce platforms afford retailers unprecedented visibility into customer purchase behavior and provide an environment in which prices can be updated quickly and cheaply in response to changing market conditions. This study investigates dynamic pricing strategies for maximizing revenue in an Internet retail channel by actively learning customers' demand response to price. A general methodology is proposed for dynamically pricing information goods, as well as other nonperishable products for which inventory levels are not an essential consideration in pricing. A Bayesian model of demand uncertainty involving the Dirichlet distribution or a mixture of such distributions as a prior captures a wide range of beliefs about customer demand. We provide both analytic formulas and efficient approximation methods for updating these prior distributions after sales data have been observed. We then investigate several strategies for sequential pricing based on index functions that consider both the potential revenue and the information value of selecting prices. These strategies require a manageable amount of computation, are robust to many types of prior misspecification, and yield high revenues compared to static pricing and passive learning approaches. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

The impact of demand uncertainty on product line design under endogenous substitution

The existing product line design literature devotes little attention to the effect of demand uncertainty. Due to demand uncertainty, the supply‐demand mismatch is inevitable which leads to different degrees of lost sales depending on the configuration of product lines. In this article, we adopt a stylized two‐segment setup with uncertain market sizes and illustrate the interplay between two effects: risk pooling that mitigates the impact of demand uncertainty and market segmentation that facilitates consumer differentiation. Compared to downward substitution, inducing bidirectional substitution through product line decisions including quality levels and prices can yield greater risk pooling effects. However, we show that the additional benefit from the risk pooling effect cannot compensate for the reduced market segmentation effect. We demonstrate that the presence of demand uncertainty can reduce the benefit of market segmentation and therefore the length of product lines in terms of the difference between products. We also propose three heuristics that separate product line and production decisions; each of these heuristics corresponds to one particular form of demand substitution. Our numerical studies indicate that the best of the three heuristics yields performance that is close to optimality. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 143–157, 2015     

震灾应急物资动态需求预测模型研究

为提高应急物资需求预测方法的实用性,同时考虑提前期和需求的不确定性,采用安全库存理论构建震灾应急物资动态需求预测模型,以观测得到的实际到货量、实际消耗量和实时剩余库存量等信息来动态预测当前时刻应急物资的需求量。应用算例表明,所建模型不仅能够准确反映需求量与被保障人员总数的正相关关系,而且还能实时体现被保障人员总数的变化情况。因此,该模型能够为震灾过程中应急物资需求量的确定提供科学决策依据,具有一定的实用价值和应用前景。     

日本防卫产业发展潜力问题分析

日本自卫队追求能力提升和活动范围扩大的努力受到其防卫产业发展的局限。防卫预算的有限直接导致防卫产业的市场规模狭小。部分核心技术自主研发的缺失限制了防卫产业独立发展的能力。融合式发展模式在成本核算、劳动生产率提升和产业发展稳定性等方面限制了防卫产业发展的潜力。