Warranty claims modeling

A company wishes to estimate or predict its financial exposure in a reporting period of length T (typically one quarter) because of warranty claims. We propose a fairly general random measure model which allows computation of the Laplace transform of the total claim made against the company in the reporting interval due to warranty claims. When specialized to a Poisson process of both sales and warranty claims, statistical estimation of relevant quantities is possible. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing automobile sales and warranty claims data from a large car manufacturer for a single car model and model year. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

基于排队论的反舰导弹突防概率研究

根据水面舰艇对海导弹攻击中作战指挥的需要,提出了基于排队论中随机服务理论的反舰导弹突防概率解算模型.综合研究了目标舰艇编队采用各种手段进行抗击帮助条件下,反舰导弹突防概率的计算问题,并且结合想定装备参数进行了算例分析.为指挥员实施导弹攻击提供辅助决策和量化支持.     

几类特殊多叶函数的极值点和支撑点

设S(p,α)、C(p,α)及K(p,α)分别表示α阶的p 叶星像、凸像和近于凸函数族。本文对这些函数族的支撑点和S(p,α)的从属函数族的极值点和支撑点进行了研究,推广了Grassmann 和Perera 等人的结果。     

Estimating the point availability with right‐censored data

The point availability of a one‐unit system at a specified time is defined as the probability that the component is operating at that time. When both operating time and repair time are subject to random (right) censorship, we propose an asymptotic nonparametric approach for constructing confidence intervals for the point availability of the system. The technique is based on the fact that a product limit estimator converges to a Gaussian process. The method is also extended to finding confidence intervals for the point availability of a complex system using the δ‐Method. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 119–127, 1999     

基于磨损量的数学模型及其数值模拟与分析

通过建立及讨论摩擦片磨损量的数学模型,用随机数学的方法给出了该模型的概率分布,并初步讨论了该分布的一些基本特征,通过数值模拟还给出了其独特的分布特征,如与正态分布的关系与区别,从而也为摩擦片失效分析提供了新的模型与方法.     

Attrition through a partially coordinated area defense

An area defense consists of several groups that act independently, i.e., do not communicate with each other. Each group has a fixed number of defenders and a controller that allocates these defenders optimally against the individual attackers comprising an attack. We analyze the effectiveness of this partially coordinated defense against a simultaneous attack of known size in which all attackers are considered to be equally lethal. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

侵入和不变流型的坦克炮控伺服系统研究

针对坦克炮控系统未知齿隙及摩擦,设计了基于性能的新型控制器.提出了基于侵入和不变流型(I&I)的未知参数估计率的构造方法,使调节函数的选取及I&I估计率的设计变得直接简便.由于未知齿隙及摩擦被充分的描述成有界扰动与非线性动态项的组合,从而避免了将其简单的考虑成“总扰动”所造成的被控系统性能的损失.该控制器可有效抑制负载扰动及参数变化所带来的影响.同时通过快速准确的估计系统参数实现了对指令信号快速精确的跟踪.     

作战准备车辆装备质量分层抽样方法研究

针对当前我军车辆装备质量全面技术普查过程中存在的问题，探索一种新的作战准备车辆装备质量评估方法——抽样评估法，综合运用简单随机抽样和分层抽样，提出作战准备车辆装备质量抽样的样本量确定方法和子样本量分配方法，最后示例说明该方法的应用。     

Network reliability assessment in a random environment

In this paper we consider networks that consist of components operating under a randomly changing common environment. Our work is motivated by power system networks that are subject to fluctuating weather conditions over time that affect the performance of the network. We develop a general setup for any network that is subject to such environment and present results for network reliability assessment under two repair scenarios. We also present Bayesian analysis of network failure data and illustrate how reliability predictions can be obtained for the network. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 574–591, 2003     

二维连续型随机变量函数的分布的线积分算法

本文给出用线积分计算二维连续型随机变量(X,Y)函数的概率密度的一般公式。与通常方法相比,具有方法简单、计算量少的优点。