The effect of deployment on first‐ and second‐term re‐enlistment in the US active duty force

Why should deployment affect re‐enlistment? In our model, members enter the military with naïve beliefs about deployment and use actual deployment experience to update their beliefs and revise their expected utility of re‐enlisting. Empirically, re‐enlistment is related to the type and number of deployments, consistent with the learning model. Non‐hostile deployment increases first‐term re‐enlistment but hostile deployment has little effect except for the Army, where the effect is positive. Both types increase second‐term re‐enlistment. Interestingly, first‐term members with dependants tend to respond to deployment like second‐term members. In addition, deployment acts directly to affect re‐enlistment, not indirectly through time to promotion.     

Aid versus sanctions for taming oppressors: theory and case study of the Iraqi Kurds

We model an oppressor aiming at victimizing an excluded group in his country, with two main variants. A foreign power affects his behaviour using either conditional aid, subject to the dictator’s participation constraint, or the threat of sanctions, broadly defined, subject to the credibility constraint. The choice between the two is either determined by the latter, or by their relative cost. Aid is preferred when the threat of sanctions is ineffective, and sanctions are too expensive. Sanctions might be imposed, if the threat is ineffective. A case study of the Iraqi Kurds after Iraq was subject to sanctions is presented.     

TERRORISM: FACTS FROM FIGURES 1

If international terrorism is on a rising trend, an important source of confirmation or refutation of this is time‐series data on terrorist activity. Using chiefly data collected by the RAND/MIPT consortium we show using basic statistical analysis that in the period 1968–2005 the yearly number of all international terrorist incidents shows no trend over time, but fluctuates year on year in a random manner. On the other hand some indicators do show a definite trend over time, principally the steady rise in the number of incidents that are death‐dealing in nature. A further conclusion is drawn, showing that the proportion of these incidents leading to deaths above a given level is virtually fixed.     

The view from above: how the Royal Air Force provided a strategic vision for operational intelligence during the Malayan Emergency

It has long been held that the Federation of Malaya’s counter-insurgency campaign during the First Malayan Emergency (1948–60) was determined by the use of intelligence. Special Branch — the Federation’s primary intelligence agency — dominates the prevailing paradigm of how the insurgent threat was tackled. Conversely, the role of the Royal Air Force (RAF) within this paradigm is very limited. Most observers simply dismiss the role of photoreconnaissance or airstrikes as being largely inconsequential to the counter-insurgency effort. This is perhaps understandable: the Emergency was after all a ‘policing action’ and the insurgents were largely hidden under Malaya’s jungle canopy and amongst the Chinese community. However, further scrutiny reveals that the RAF made a much more significant contribution to the intelligence element of the counter-insurgency campaign than previously realised. First, the RAF decided to locate their Advanced Headquarters with the Army’s General Headquarters. This led to the creation of the Land/Air Operations Room, through which intelligence, tasking and resources were coordinated. Moreover, the RAF put its intelligence teams into the field to provide a practical link between local units and theatre-level assets. Second, with the support of the Army, the RAF established at the beginning of the Emergency the Joint Air Photographic Intelligence Board (Far East). This coordinated all photographic intelligence requirements throughout the Emergency, which was then delivered via the Joint Air Photographic Centre (Far East). Hence, via Joint Operations Centre and JAPIB (FE), the RAF provided both the practical means for effective joint intelligence operations at theatre level throughout the Emergency.     

基于压缩估计的单星观测定轨方法研究

分析了单星观测模式下的天基测控系统的可行性,并针对该观测模式下轨道确定中法矩阵的特点,提出了一种基于压缩估计的定轨方法,该方法对法矩阵进行变换,避免了法矩阵奇异造成的误差传递。证明了当满足一定条件时,该压缩方法的估计精度要高于传统的定轨方法。并结合单星观测的特殊性,提出了误差传递因子,设计了单星观测下的压缩估计定轨算法。最后以单星模式下的天基测控系统作为仿真背景进行了仿真试验。结果表明,该压缩估计可有效提高单星观测模式下的轨道确定精度。     

精密加工过程切削用量和表面粗糙度关系的模糊化处理方法

在金属切削原理中,用切削用量可以估计理论表面粗糙度。由于切削过程的复杂性,实际加工表面粗糙度和理论表面粗糙度有较大差距。本文采用模糊模式识别方法,对切削用量和表面粗糙度的关系进行了实验研究。本人介绍的理论方法、实现技术路线和实验结果,为以后开展ＦＭＳ或ＣＩＭＳ中智能化质量监控技术的进一步研究打下了基础。     

交通场景行人穿越检测方法进展研究

随着自动驾驶和计算机视觉技术的飞速发展,人们对交通安全的重视程度越来越高。其中,交通场景中行人穿越检测问题是研究的热点与难点之一。对行人穿越检测这一领域进行了综合评述,并对未来研究进行了展望。按照行人试图穿越、正在穿越及穿越预测三个阶段进行分析,首先分析了基于行人姿态穿越意图的研究进展(试图穿越),包括人体姿态、数据驱动和高斯动力学模型三个方面;其次讨论了基于轨迹跟踪的穿越行为检测方法(正在穿越);然后概括了基于轨迹预测的行人穿越检测方法(穿越预测);最后总结了现阶段比较新颖的多传感融合、车路协同、车联网等研究角度,并对未来该领域需重点发展的方向提出建议。     

多传感器多机动目标跟踪方法研究进展

讨论了多传感器多机动目标的研究现状,分析了几种跟踪滤波器的性能,着重探讨了交互多模型(IMM)算法的发展状况和应用。同时还研究了多传感器跟踪多机动目标过程中的数据关联方法。最后指出,寻求采用自适应变结构的IMM算法,研究模型切换过程中算法的过渡性能,以及在数据关联中引入混沌、遗传算法等智能控制方法,将是未来多传感器多机动目标研究的方向。     

履带车辆转向性能指标分析及实验研究

转向性能是评价履带车辆机动性的重要指标之一.文中针对转向角速度、转向半径和转向消耗功率3个指标,分别在不考虑履带滑转滑移的理想条件下和考虑履带滑转滑移的实际情况下,对履带车辆的转向性能进行了讨论和分析,对2种条件下履带车辆的转向性能的变化进行了比较.为了对履带车辆在转向过程中履带的滑转和滑移程度进行定量的分析,定义了履带的滑转和滑移系数.通过实车实验,对分析结果进行了验证.     

van der Pol 振子在负反馈作用下的动力性态分析

本文从非线性振动理论和反馈控制论的角度研究了ｖａｎｄｅｒＰｏｌ振子在负反馈作用下的动力性态,用中心流形法和形式级数法分析了ｖａｎｄｅｒＰｏｌ振子的局部稳定性和Ｈｏｐｆ分叉行为,用Ｒｕｎｇｅ─Ｋｕｔｔａ法给出了仿真结果。