Analysis of artillery shoot‐and‐scoot tactics

Firing multiple artillery rounds from the same location has two main benefits: a high rate of fire at the enemy and improved accuracy as the shooter's aim adjusts to previous rounds. However, firing repeatedly from the same location carries significant risk that the enemy will detect the artillery's location. Therefore, the shooter may periodically move locations to avoid counter‐battery fire. This maneuver is known as the shoot‐and‐scoot tactic. This article analyzes the shoot‐and‐scoot tactic for a time‐critical mission using Markov models. We compute optimal move policies and develop heuristics for more complex and realistic settings. Spending a reasonable amount of time firing multiple shots from the same location is often preferable to moving immediately after firing an initial salvo. Moving frequently reduces risk to the artillery, but also limits the artillery's ability to inflict damage on the enemy.     

Inventory management with advance capacity information

An important aspect of supply chain management is dealing with demand and supply uncertainty. The uncertainty of future supply can be reduced if a company is able to obtain advance capacity information (ACI) about future supply/production capacity availability from its supplier. We address a periodic‐review inventory system under stochastic demand and stochastic limited supply, for which ACI is available. We show that the optimal ordering policy is a state‐dependent base‐stock policy characterized by a base‐stock level that is a function of ACI. We establish a link with inventory models that use advance demand information (ADI) by developing a capacitated inventory system with ADI, and we show that equivalence can only be set under a very specific and restrictive assumption, implying that ADI insights will not necessarily hold in the ACI environment. Our numerical results reveal several managerial insights. In particular, we show that ACI is most beneficial when there is sufficient flexibility to react to anticipated demand and supply capacity mismatches. Further, most of the benefits can be achieved with only limited future visibility. We also show that the system parameters affecting the value of ACI interact in a complex way and therefore need to be considered in an integrated manner. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于随机时间影响网络的联合火力打击方案评估

联合火力打击方案评估是作战筹划和指挥决策的核心问题之一,对于打击手段的选择、战法的运用等具有重要的影响,其难点是在不确定条件下有效地建立作战方案到使命目标达成效果之间的映射关系.作战仿真方法往往存在突出的低效率问题,而解析模型的方法难以充分反映目标体系的内部联系和整体效果.目前概率推理模型广泛应用于军事领域的作战方案评...     

随机共振用于非周期信号处理的仿真

介绍了双稳系统及其数学模型,给出了该系统应用于非周期信号处理的应用模型,进行了仿真实验并给出了实验结果。在此基础上,对非周期随机共振信号处理的物理机制进行了分析。结果表明,非周期随机共振信号处理与传统的周期随机共振信号处理的机制类似,也是信号、噪声和双稳系统共同作用的结果。     

基于Langevin型随机共振的水中目标线谱检测

将Langevin型双稳态随机共振系统应用于水声时变线谱信号的检测,提出了设计水声线谱检测系统可以利用的外在参数。在水听器端建立了时变线谱模型,考查了随机共振系统对水声环境的适应能力。实验发现在信噪比变化、声压起伏、线谱漂移等情况下,系统都能较好的工作,为水声领域新型线谱检测系统的设计提供了依据。     

Dynamic order acceptance and capacity planning on a single bottleneck resource

We present a tactical decision model for order acceptance and capacity planning that maximizes the expected profits from accepted orders, allowing for aggregate regular as well as nonregular capacity. The stream of incoming order arrivals is the main source of uncertainty in dynamic order acceptance and the company only has forecasts of the main properties of the future incoming projects. Project proposals arrive sequentially with deterministic interarrival times and a decision on order acceptance and capacity planning needs to be made each time a proposal arrives and its project characteristics are revealed. We apply stochastic dynamic programming to determine a profit threshold for the accept/reject decision as well as to deterministically allocate a single bottleneck resource to the accepted projects, both with an eye on maximizing the expected revenues within the problem horizon. We derive a number of managerial insights based on an analysis of the influence of project and environmental characteristics on optimal project selection and aggregate capacity usage. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Modeling and analysis of a mixed‐model assembly line with stochastic operation times

We consider a mixed‐model assembly line (MMAL) comprised a set of workstations and a conveyor. The workstations are arranged in a serial configuration. The conveyor moves at a constant speed along the workstations. Initial units belonging to different models are successively fed onto the conveyor, and they are moved by the conveyor to pass through the workstations to gradually generate final products. All assembling tasks are manually performed with operation times to be stochastic. An important performance measure of MMALs is overload times that refer to uncompleted operations for operators within their work zones. This paper establishes a method to analyze the expected overload times for MMALs with stochastic operation times. The operation processes of operators form discrete time nonhomogeneous Markov processes with continuous state spaces. For a given daily production schedule, the expected overload times involve in analyzing the Markov processes for finite horizon. Based on some important properties of the performance measure, we propose an efficient approach for calculating the expected overload times. Numerical computations show that the results are very satisfactory. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Estimation of average backorders for an assemble‐to‐order system with random batch demands through extreme statistics

We investigate inventory management for a large‐scale multi‐product, multi‐component Assemble‐to‐Order system with general random batch demands. Results from extreme statistics theory are applied in developing approximation schemes for a widely used performance measure, customer backorders. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

一类多维双重时序 AR(1)-MA(q) 模型的平稳性

讨论了一类多维双重时序ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（ｑ）模型的二阶平稳性问题。通过导出一组线性方程组，给出了这类模型二阶平稳的显式充分条件和必要条件，为验证模型的二阶平稳性提供了一个可行的途径。     

环形区域极点/协方差约束下的模型简化设计

提出离散随机系统模型简化的一种新方法,即环形区域极点／协方差约束下的模型简化方法。这种设计方法的基本思路是构造指定维数的降阶模型,使其匹配给定的环形区域极点和稳态协方差参数,在系统的动态特性和稳态特性方面逼近给定的满阶模型。文中导出了期望的简化模型的存在条件及解析表达式,并提供了一个数值算例。