9/11: WHAT DID WE KNOW AND WHEN DID WE KNOW IT?

In February 1998, Osama Bin Laden published a signed statement calling for a fatwa against the United States for its having ‘declared war against God’. As we now know, the fatwa resulted in the unprecedented attack of 9/11. The issue of whether or not 9/11 was in any way predictable culminated in the public debate between Richard Clarke, former CIA Director George Tenet and the White House. This paper examines whether there was any evidence of a structural change in the terrorism data at or after February 1998 but prior to June 2001, controlling for the possibility of other breaks in earlier periods. In doing so, we use the standard Bai–Perron procedure and our sequential importance sampling (SIS) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for identifying an unknown number of breaks at unknown dates. We conclude that sophisticated statistical time‐series analysis would not have predicted 9/11.     

The defence industry supply chain: Linkage patterns in the south west of england 1

In this paper, new data from the south west of England are used to illustrate that defence dependent firms are likely to purchase more inputs locally than less defence‐dependent firms. The results confirm that the defence industry's supply chain has unusual characterises and that defence industrial restructuring is therefore, likely to produce different outcomes to previous rounds of manufacturing restructuring.     

THE 2005 NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE

The 2005 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) failed to produce any agreed action plan for addressing nuclear disarmament or proliferation. Detailed discussions and negotiations on such a plan were much curtailed because of procedural wrangles. This article describes the evolution of the conference and argues that changes in the international political environment and problems inherent in the revised NPT review process agreed at its 1995 Extension Conference contributed to the meager outcome. The main issues raised by delegations in their plenary statements, working papers, and the limited time available for interactive discussion are summarized, and three perspectives are offered on the reasons for the lack of any substantive product. Finally, the implications of that failure for the NPT, its review process, the wider regime for international nuclear governance, and nuclear disarmament, nuclear nonproliferation, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy are examined.     

改进的笛卡尔遗传编程组合电路演化设计

利用笛卡尔遗传编程进行电路演化时,存在收敛速度慢、收敛时间波动较大等问题．对笛卡尔遗传编程中的可编程单元模型进行改进,增加与目标函数相关的逻辑运算,去除无关的逻辑运算,从而提高演化算法命中目标的概率．利用改进的笛卡尔遗传编程方法分别对电机换相电路和乘法器等组合电路进行演化设计．结果表明,改进后的方法明显缩短了电路演化生成的时间,且收敛时间波动较小．     

远海作战装备供应链体系架构

信息化使战争的节奏加快,如何满足快节奏战争对装备的需求,无疑是军事保障领域值得研究的一个问题.供应链思想被引入军事物资保障系统后,已在多个领域发挥了显著的效用.建立装备供应链网络对提升远海作战装备供应能力既有现实意义又是可行的,这是因为：一方面信息化条件下远海作战需要更有效率的装备供应体系,另一方面企业供应链为装备供应链提供了可以借鉴的模式.本文通过对远海作战装备供应链目标和特征的分析,参照企业供应链和美军海上供应链建设的情况,建立了远海作战装备供应链网络,并对供应链流程进行了说明.     

FP GA软件测试过程及管理

船舶领域的FPGA软件测试严重滞后于应用增长的速度,部分型号甚至未将其纳入测试范畴。在研制过程中,由FPGA故障导致的修改调试已成为影响进度和增加成本的瓶颈。因此,针对FGPA软件特点及其测试的现状,对其测试过程、测试模型和过程管理进行研究,并给出完整的过程管理体系。通过采用规范化、有序化、系统化、面向工程的、面向任务的文档及配套管理手段进行正确引导、组织和实施测试活动,持续改进测试流程中各个阶段工作质量和效用,及早及时地发现和关闭开发过程中存在的缺陷,提高设计和测试的沟通效率,最终保证FPGA产品的质量,提升客户的满意度。     

A mathematical formulation and efficient heuristics for the dynamic container relocation problem

The container relocation problem (CRP) is concerned with emptying a single yard‐bay which contains J containers each following a given pickup order so as to minimize the total number of relocations made during their retrieval process. The CRP can be modeled as a binary integer programming (IP) problem and is known to be NP‐hard. In this work, we focus on an extension of the CRP to the case where containers are both received and retrieved from a single yard‐bay, and call it the dynamic container relocation problem. The arrival (departure) sequences of containers to (from) the yard‐bay is assumed to be known a priori. A binary IP formulation is presented for the problem. Then, we propose three types of heuristic methods: index based heuristics, heuristics using the binary IP formulation, and a beam search heuristic. Computational experiments are performed on an extensive set of randomly generated test instances. Our results show that beam search heuristic is very efficient and performs better than the other heuristic methods.Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 101–118, 2014     

Bicriteria multiresource generalized assignment problem

In this study, we consider a bicriteria multiresource generalized assignment problem. Our criteria are the total assignment load and maximum assignment load over all agents. We aim to generate all nondominated objective vectors and the corresponding efficient solutions. We propose several lower and upper bounds and use them in our optimization and heuristic algorithms. The computational results have shown the satisfactory behaviors of our approaches. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 621–636, 2014     

基于抽象隐马尔可夫模型的CGF路径规划识别

路径规划识别是一种以位置信息为输入的在线识别。为了使CGF能在仿真中识别对手的路径和终点目标,在分析路径规划层次的基础上引入了抽象隐马尔可夫模型的识别框架。针对标准模型在对手更改终点目标和自上而下规划时无法识别的问题,提出了一种顶层策略可变的抽象隐马尔可夫模型。为模型的顶层策略增加初始分布和策略终止变量,更改了策略终止变量间的依赖关系,使下层策略能被强制终止。给出了改进后DBN结构,并通过推导条件概率更新和RB变量抽样流程实现了模型的近似推理。仿真实验表明,改进模型能准确识别给定环境下的各类典型航迹,不仅在终点目标不变时能较好地维持标准模型的识别准确率,在提供足够的观测数据后还能很好地解决变目标识别问题。     

可变速率调制器研究及其FPGA实现

提出了一种变速率调制系统的设计方法。基于现场可编程门阵列(FPGA),在硬件系统中实现了新方法。所设计的系统能够处理(13.5~300)Mbps连续变化的比特速率。通过将整个可变速率范围分成若干小段,分别经过不同倍数的采样滤波,保证了所有符号速率对应的数据能够被调制到数模转换芯片(DAC)处理范围内。给出了系统整体设计结构,分析了硬件实现时的难点,论述了并行采样滤波与并行载波生成等设计方法。硬件实现结果表明,所提出的设计方法能够实现对较宽范围内连续可变速率信号的调制。系统的易扩展性也保证了所设计结构能够处理更宽的变速率范围。