Attributing Cyber Attacks

Who did it? Attribution is fundamental. Human lives and the security of the state may depend on ascribing agency to an agent. In the context of computer network intrusions, attribution is commonly seen as one of the most intractable technical problems, as either solvable or not solvable, and as dependent mainly on the available forensic evidence. But is it? Is this a productive understanding of attribution? — This article argues that attribution is what states make of it. To show how, we introduce the Q Model: designed to explain, guide, and improve the making of attribution. Matching an offender to an offence is an exercise in minimising uncertainty on three levels: tactically, attribution is an art as well as a science; operationally, attribution is a nuanced process not a black-and-white problem; and strategically, attribution is a function of what is at stake politically. Successful attribution requires a range of skills on all levels, careful management, time, leadership, stress-testing, prudent communication, and recognising limitations and challenges.     

针对军事集群目标的YOLOv3改进算法研究

YOLOv3目标检测模型对于巡飞弹作战中的军事集群目标存在可能漏检紧邻目标的问题.改进算法以YOLOv3为基础,对其候选框选择算法采用的非极大值抑制(NMS)引入惩罚函数,实现soft-NMS,从而减少紧邻目标识别边框被误删的概率.同时针对军事目标数据稀缺的情况,对数据的预处理采用k-fold交叉验证策略,抑制过拟合现象,充分训练模型.实验结果表明,改进算法后对集群目标的检测效果要好于原YOLOv3,其准确率提高了3.14％,召回率提高了17.58％,符合巡飞弹作战中对目标检测精度指标的要求.     

人工智能技术在决策支持系统中的应用

首先分析了决策支持系统(DSS)和专家系统(ES)的局限及两者的区别,然后提出了专家支持系统(ESS)的概念,并详细阐述了ESS的系统结构。     

使用多Agent模型求解N－难题的新方法

借鉴多Ａｇｅｎｔ模型思想给出了求解Ｎ－难题的新方法。将Ｎ－难题分成多个Ａｇｅｎｔ,赋予每个Ａｇｅｎｔ以算法,利用Ａｇｅｎｔ之间的协作和交互有效地进行问题求解。该方法将前人的指数时空复杂度降为多项式时空复杂度,实际实现结果表明了该方法可行、高效。     

尾流自导鱼雷攻击规避机动水面舰艇研究

研究了尾流自导鱼雷攻击水面舰艇的主要影响因素,分析了水面舰艇各种机动规避方式对尾流自导鱼雷弹道的影响,利用仿真分析方法确定了水面舰艇规避机动参数对尾流自导鱼雷跟踪过程的影响程度,分别确定了水面舰艇和尾流自导鱼雷对抗的有关原则,研究结果为尾流自导鱼雷作战使用和水面舰艇规避机动提供了依据。     

射流角度和壁面曲率对撞壁液膜的影响

射流角度和壁面曲率是空间液体火箭发动机液膜冷却设计的重要参数,通过实验研究了入射角和壁面曲率半径对射流撞壁液膜形态和液膜厚度的影响;实验中液膜厚度的测量采用探针法法测量。对射流撞壁的溅射现象进行的分析表明,射流由壁面附着状态转变为液滴飞溅状态的临界We数为214.1,射流撞壁后由附壁状态转变为溅射状态的临界入射角度为23.1°,根据液体火箭发动机冷却的需要可以选择合适的射流角度。     

BANKING ON NONPROLIFERATION

In the past decade, governments have increasingly relied on financial sanctions to counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. By targeting not only individuals and entities involved in illicit activities, but also banks that allow transactions to occur, financial sanctions were expected to stanch the flow of funds that support proliferation and compel compliance with international law—notably by Iran. Ten years later, Iran's nuclear program has advanced, calling into question the effectiveness of financial sanctions. Previous research evaluating the effectiveness of financial sanctions has focused on the impact of sanctions on the targeted country or on the enforcement of sanctions by the international community. Little attention has been devoted to their implementation by banks and government agencies. Based on interviews with US and European bank and government representatives, this article argues that the inefficiency of financial sanctions is due to shortcomings in training and information support from governments to financial institutions; governments on both sides of the Atlantic have provided little or no assistance to enable banks to identify patterns of proliferation financing and implement the sanctions regime. To transform financial sanctions into effective nonproliferation tools, governments need to play a greater role in their implementation.     

PTL 证明器的实现技术

基于文［１０］中的理论,我们用Ｔｕｒｂｏ─ｐｒｏｌｏｇ编程,在３８６微机上成功地实现了命题时态逻辑定理的证明器。该证明器在处理ｎｅｘｔ幂次、归纳、归结、◇（ｘ∧ｙ）、ｕｎｔｉｌ　等方面,均有独到之处。这些方面,克服了以往工作的不足。证明器界面友好、速度快、能力强。     

A (Q,R) inventory model with lost sales and erlang-distributed lead times

The exact expression is derived for the average stationary cost of a (Q,R) inventory system with lost sales, unit Poisson demands, Erlang-distributed lead times, fixed order cost, fixed cost per unit lost sale, linear holding cost per unit time, and a maximum of one order outstanding. Explicit expressions for the state probabilities and a fast method of calculating them are obtained for the case of Q greater than R. Exponential lead times are analyzed as a special case. A simple cyclic coordinate search procedure is used to locate the minimum cost policy. Examples of the effect of lead time variability on costs are given.