基于BP神经网络的导弹作战方案评估方法

构建了一般的机动发射式导弹作战方案评估的指标体系,通过BP神经网络模型对拟制的导弹作战方案进行了评估,得到了评估结果,为导弹武器作战时快速优选作战方案创造条件。     

常规导弹作战评估研究现状及展望

区分常规导弹作战效能评估、作战能力评估、作战方案评估3个方面,系统梳理了常规导弹作战评估指标体系、评估方法、评估模型等研究现状,分析了存在的问题,探讨了需研究的重点和方向,可为后续研究常规导弹作战评估提供参考借鉴.     

陆基导弹武器系统生存能力研究

导弹武器系统的生存能力是一个关键的战技指标.国内外对导弹武器系统生存能力的分析评估十分重视,已开展了许多研究工作.介绍了研究陆基导弹武器系统生存能力的重要性,对其概念、定性评估模型、解析评估模型、仿真评估模型和提高生存能力的途径等几方面的研究进行了综述和分析,并就相关问题提出了一些看法.     

弹道导弹列车遭核攻击下的生存能力建模分析

弹道导弹列车生存能力评估是一项重要的课题,长期以来无系统的成熟方法,各方评估结果也往往争议颇多。对此提出作战想定驱动下定性与定量相结合的方法,对导弹列车生存能力影响因素进行定性分析,提取主要因素并作合理的限定和简化。建立导弹列车生存能力计算的基础模型,并给出几种典型攻击想定下生存能力计算模型。最后根据计算结果,绘图对比分析形成结论。为弹道导弹列车生存能力评估问题提供方法和模型的参考。     

机动导弹武器系统生存能力评估分析

分析了机动导弹武器系统生存能力的影响因素,建立了机动导弹武器系统的生存能力指标体系,针对其中的指标分别提出相应的定量分析模型:建立多种侦察设备的发现概率模型,进行空面导弹引战配合分析及引信系统压制性干扰分析,在对机动导弹武器系统进行目标特性分析的基础上,建立了空面导弹对机动导弹武器系统的毁伤概率模型,最终探讨出一种在遭受空面导弹攻击条件下机动导弹武器系统生存能力的评估方法。仿真结果表明该方法将对机动导弹武器系统生存能力的提高和生存能力设计产生积极的影响。     

基于云理论的导弹作战体系生存能力评估

针对导弹作战体系生存能力评估的复杂性,提出了基于云理论的导弹作战体系生存能力评估方法,建立了相应的导弹作战体系生存能力评估指标体系,通过求各指标的云模型表征及各指标参数的权重,实现了导弹作战体系生存能力评估。仿真实例表明,该方法简单易行,可操作性强,可为同类作战体系效能评估提供参考。     

轻型反坦克导弹生存能力分析

本文详细论述影响轻型反坦克导弹生存能力的因素,并从作战的角度出发,建立轻型反坦克导弹生存能力的评估模型。     

防空导弹武器生存能力的综合量化评估

结合防空导弹武器的实际情况 ,给出了影响其生存能力的指标体系 ,提出并建立了防空导弹武器生存能力的综合量化评估模型。利用AHP与Delphi相结合的方法对指标的权重进行确定 ,在一定程度上克服了专家赋权时的主观因素。最后 ,通过实例表明 ,利用该模型进行评估切实有效     

基于HLA的机动导弹武器系统生存能力仿真评估

通过计算机仿真对生存能力进行评估是一种有效的分析评估手段.利用HLA架构下的仿真理论设计了基于未来战场环境的机动导弹武器系统生存能力仿真评估软件系统,并根据总体设计框架给出了机动导弹武器系统在两次连续打击模式下的生存能力评估作战联邦实例,联邦设计具备扩展到评估敌我双方实施多武器攻防的能力,便于全面考察机动导弹武器系统在复杂真实战场环境下所具备的生存能力.     

作战方案效能评估指标研究

针对作战方案效能评估问题,分析了当前作战方案效能评估的现状,从信息能力、决策能力、资源消耗和方案自身结构链路关系四个方面提出了作战方案效能评估指标体系。指标体系中的每个指标都给出了定量的动态定义,可以对作战方案效能信息进行实时跟踪,还给出了作战方案评估模型的设计思路和接口。     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.