共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 31 毫秒
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Yoram Friedman 《海军后勤学研究》1977,24(3):507-510
Various models of stochastic duels with round dependent hit probabilities have appeared in the literature [1]. However, none of them analyzed the effect interfiring times will have on the hit probability. In this paper we formulate a model for a marksman versus a passive target where the probability of a hit at a given round is a function of the interfiring times. We show how to solve for the optimal interfiring times and prove that under certain assumptions the optimal rate of fire is a non-decreasing function of the round fired. 相似文献
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C. J. Ancker Jr. 《海军后勤学研究》1984,31(3):363-371
The fundamental stochastic duel considers two opponents who fire at each other at either random continuous or fixed-time intervals with a constant hit probability on each round fired. Each starts with an unloaded weapon, unlimited ammunition, and unlimited time. The first to hit wins. In this article we extend the theory to the case where hit probabilities are functions of the time since the duel began. First, the marksman firing at a passive target is considered and the characteristic function of the time to a hit is developed. Then, the probability of a given side winning the duel is derived. General solutions for a wide class of hit probability functions are derived. Specific examples of both the marksman and the duel problem are given. 相似文献
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A simple stochastic-duel model, based on alternate firing, is proposed. This model is shown to be asymptotically equivalent, for small hit probabilities, to other known models, such as simple and square duels. Alternate firing introduces an interaction between opponents and allows one to consider multiple duels. Conditions under which concentrated firing is better or worse than parallel firing are found by calculation and sometimes by simulation. The only parameters considered are the combat group sizes (all units within a group are assumed identical), the hit probabilities and the number of hits necessary to destroy an opposing unit. 相似文献
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《防务技术》2010,(1)
The wind effects on steady-state scan characteristics and hit probability of terminal-sensitive projectile were discussed in this paper. Considering wind as the constitutions of the average wind and the impulsive wind, a simplified wind field model was established for the ballistic calculation of the steady-state scan phase; under the windy condition, the effects of the range wind and the beam wind on the steady-state scan characteristics of the terminal-sensitive projectile were analyzed in detail and its hit probabilities for a certain armored target were calculated. The calculated results show that, when the wind speed exceeds a certain value, the hit probabilities of terminal-sensitive projectile drop rapidly; the wind effects must be considered in the application of the terminal-sensitive projectiles. This paper provides some theoretical references for the fire wind speed correction and the global structure optimization of the terminal-sensitive projectile. 相似文献
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通过对出现脱靶弹情况下的散布特征参数估计方法的研究 ,建立了正态双边截尾样本均值和方差估计数学模型 ,并给出了数值计算方法 ,为坦克火控系统首发命中概率试验脱靶弹数据处理提供了理论依据。 相似文献
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坦克稳像火控系统射击精度分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
从射击准备和射弹散布两个方面,对坦克稳像火控系统射击误差进行了较全面地分析,提出了射击误差的计算方法,并在此基础上对坦克使用稳像火控系统射击时的首发命中概率进行了计算 相似文献
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根据射击毁伤理论和概率统计学,在现有点目标毁伤概率求解方法基础之上提出考虑目标定位误差的解析法和仿真法.计算结果表明2种方法均准确可行.通过对比分析得出不同弹药量、不同目标特性条件下,定位误差对毁伤概率的影响程度.运用解析法得出点目标的单发命中概率服从χ2分布,通过大量仿真得出目标定位误差可忽略的条件为WmaxRCEP/ω. 相似文献
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基于炮口雷达的初速综合预测技术 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
初速对火炮的"首发命中"影响较大.因而,预估初速的各种方法纷纷出台.从发射药、火炮两个不同角度分别测算初速偏差是以往的主要方法.初速综合预测技术首次以炮口测速雷达的测量数据为基础预测初速,预测效果和使用等问题被普遍关注.本着应用原则,从工程实现中的焦点问题出发,提供了在现有指挥平台上应用的方法. 相似文献
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火炮火控系统命中解的分布和存在性 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
定义了火控系统中问题联立方程应满足的“基本假设”,从理论上讨论了在“基本假设”条件下诸命中解的分布特性 ,证明临近的命中解 (如果存在的话 )是唯一的 ,给出了临近解存在的充分必要条件。用一个简单的实例表出不同目标速度下诸命中解分布的实验数据 相似文献
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为研究装药命中角对防护结构口部爆炸毁伤的影响规律,对直墙拱结构进行了一系列爆炸模拟分析,得到了直墙拱结构拱顶、拱脚和直墙底3个位置的爆炸应力和位移时程曲线。通过分析这3个位置的应力峰值和位移峰值,发现随着装药命中角的增大,拱顶处竖直方向荷载减小,而拱脚处水平方向荷载增大;随着装药命中角的增大,拱顶处竖直方向位移变形减小,而拱脚处水平方向位移变形增大。模拟分析得到的命中角对防护结构口部爆炸毁伤的影响规律,可供防护工程设计时参考。 相似文献
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对目标打击概率的数学模型及分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
通过分析识别跟踪攻击目标的过程,建立了攻击目标打击概率的数学模型和基本算法,通过计算机采用蒙特卡罗法模拟计算了不同条件下对目标的打击概率,以此研究影响打击概率的因素.计算结果表明,武器系统的作战半径和威力半径两个因素对打击概率影响较大,误差因素在一定范围内影响较小,各参数之间存在优化匹配的空间. 相似文献
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为了便于更准确地进行编队卫星碰撞检测和预报,对影响星间碰撞概率的因素进行了归纳和讨论.给出了编队卫星碰撞概率计算公式,并从Hill方程推导了离散差分方程,建立Kalman滤波器,用于估计编队飞行状态.在此基础上,对引起编队卫星发生碰撞的模型误差、测量误差、故障和意外因素四个方面进行了分析.最后,针对各因素设置了典型仿真想定并进行了仿真,仿真结果显示控制器常开故障是影响最大的因素,工程应用中需要针对它进行专门的防碰撞方案研究. 相似文献
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阐述了模型校核的意义和作用。对属于模型校核范畴的仿真中的系统状态不连贯问题的基本概念通过乒乓球的下落和反舰导弹攻击目标舰艇的例子进行了说明。介绍了已有的解决系统状态不连贯问题的三种方法,并进行了优、缺点分析。给出了反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断模型。指出,反舰导弹仿真中的目标命中判断问题是一个系统状态不连贯问题。为解决该问题,提出并应用了一种新方法预测法。利用预测法,最多进行两步最小步长仿真,就能够以要求的精确度检测到任何一个系统状态不连贯。相对于以前的三种方法,在提高仿真效率的同时,预测法还能够避免对系统状态不连贯问题的漏检。 相似文献
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Soung H. Kim 《海军后勤学研究》1985,32(4):647-651
The Markov assumption that transition probabilities are assumed to be constant over entire periods has been applied in economic and social structures, for example, in the analysis of income and wage distributions. In many cases, however, nonstationary transition probabilities exist over different periods. Based on causative matrix technique, this study shows a binomial approximation for obtaining nonstationary interim transition probabilities under undisturbance when the first and the last transition matrices are known. 相似文献
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