Extra-Systemic Conflict as a System Steering Solution: A Habermasian Analysis of State Sponsorship for Insurgency Movements

This article attempts to forward an alternative theoretical explanation of insurgency sponsorship to standard realist and neo-realist explanations for international violence. While not discounting issues of security and power, this study points out that ‘extra-rational’ motivations often lead states to sponsor violent movements in target states, even if this decision has no or negative effects on the sponsor state's security. Furthermore, extra-rational explanations, such as revenge, prestige or ideology typically lead to conflicts of greater violence and duration.     

Horizontal Inequalities and Sons of the Soil Conflict in China

Why are large population movements conflict-prone in some regions while they remain peacefully integrated elsewhere? I argue that clashes between ethnically distinct indigenous populations and migrants – i.e. ‘Sons of the Soil (SoS) conflict’ – erupt when there are large socio-economic and political horizontal inequalities between ‘dominant migrants’ and locals. A comparative case study of two Chinese minority regions based on ethnographic fieldwork and population data provides a vivid illustration of the mechanisms linking migration to SoS conflict. With fewer HIs between migrants and locals, Inner Mongolia avoided many of the violent clashes that were commonplace in Qinghai, a province fraught with disparities.     

SPH的两种并行计算方案及其在自由表面流动模拟中的应用

针对光滑粒子动力学(SPH)主要计算量是近邻粒子搜索这一特点,提出了一种基于粒子分解的SPH并行计算方案。利用该方案可以方便的将任意串行SPH代码并行计算,而且每一个时间步内的信息传递量只和粒子总数有关,而和粒子的分布无关,因而特别适合于自由表面流动等大变形问题的并行数值模拟。对一个粒子总数为40万的三维溃坝问题的模拟结果表明,此方案能达到的最大加速比约为16,这一结果可能比空间分解方案(不考虑动态负载均衡)更优。     

Successful or Failed Rebellion? The Casamance Conflict from a Framing Perspective

Empirical evidence and theoretical work suggest that conflicts over self-determination are particularly likely to escalate into very violent and protracted civil wars. However, the intensity of the secessionist conflict in Casamance, Senegal, remained low. As prevailing theories on armed conflicts fail to explain the limited escalation in Casamance, this article resorts to framing theory. Framing helps to include a micro-approach towards conflict studies in order to overcome deficits of macro-approaches. It reveals how movements interpret and construct their environment in order to mobilise potential followers to participate in their activities with the help of strategic communication. However, framing only leads to collective action, if it effectively resonates with the population addressed. The article shows that the movement's framing successfully initiated rebellion in Casamance, but did not broadly resonate with the population, which accounts for the limited intensity of violence.     

SPH并行计算方案及其在自由表面流动模拟中的应用

针对光滑粒子动力学主要计算量是近邻粒子搜索这一特点,提出了一种基于粒子分解的光滑粒子动力学并行计算方案。利用该方案可以方便地将任意串行光滑粒子动力学代码并行计算,而且每一个时间步内的信息传递量只和粒子总数有关,而和粒子的分布无关,因而特别适合于自由表面流动等大变形问题的并行数值模拟。对一个粒子总数为40万的三维溃坝问题的模拟结果表明:此方案能达到的最大加速比约为16,这一结果可能比空间分解方案(不考虑动态负载均衡)更优。     

极端暴力事件对警卫工作构成的潜在威胁及对策

目前我国极端暴力事件频发,对社会造成了极其恶劣的影响,对警卫工作带来了新的挑战和思考。依据发生极端暴力事件的原因和特点,分析和探讨警卫部门防御和处置极端暴力事件的原则、主要措施及提高警卫人员处置极端暴力事件能力的基本途径。     

Do Democracies Support Violent Non-governmental Organizations Less Than Autocracies Do?

This study draws attention to the question: Do democracies fight indirectly through material support to violent non-governmental organizations (VNGOs) which wage intrastate war against other states in general and against democracies in particular, or are democracies less warlike by proxy? The main conclusions are: democracies are less warlike by proxy than non-democratic states, and the more democratic the regime the lower the probability that it will support VNGOs waging war against other states, both in general and against other democracies in particular. The results do not unequivocally support both the monadic or dyadic argument of democratic peaceful behaviour     

Framing Political Violence: Success and Failure of Religious Mobilization in the Philippines and Thailand

How do religious civil wars evolve? Many violent conflicts are fought between groups of different faiths. The paper argues, however, that religious differences rarely directly lead to conflict onset. Rather, the apparent religious dimension of many civil wars is a consequence of successful religious framing. Political and military leaders offer religious interpretations designed to legitimize the use of force and to mobilize believers to violent action. Such framing processes can be more or less successful, depending inter alia on the authority of the political and religious leadership, on the coherence and appropriateness of the frames, on the existence of persuasive counter-frames, and on the availability of communication infrastructures that allow for effective dissemination of religious frames. Comparing violent conflicts in the Philippines and Thailand, the paper shows that religious mobilization can fail along the theoretically predicted lines.     

Evolutionary determinants of war

This paper considers evolutionarily stable decisions about whether to initiate violent conflict rather than accepting a peaceful sharing outcome. Focusing on small sets of players such as countries in a geographically confined area, we use the concept of evolutionary stability in finite populations. We find that players’ evolutionarily stable preferences widen the range of peaceful resource allocations that are rejected in favor of violent conflict, compared to the Nash equilibrium outcomes. Relative advantages in fighting strength are reflected in the equilibrium set of peaceful resource allocations.     

The National resistance army (NRA) as a guerrilla force

Africa has had no shortage of guerrilla movements since 1975. However, very few have been successful that have not fought against European colonial rule or white minority regimes. Fundamentally, without external support, these movements have been almost universally failures. One major exception to this rule was the National Resistance Army of Uganda, which overthrew the regime led by General Tito Okello in 1986. What made the National Resistance Army a success and distinct from other guerrilla armies were its sound leadership, its superior organization and its creative strategy.     

Unraveling the violence in Kazakhstan

There were several high-profile violent incidents in 2011 in Kazakhstan, including several bombings, shootings that targeted police, and a protest turned clash that resulted in a number of deaths. Some of the perpetrators reportedly had links with radical religious groups. An overlooked aspect of the violence is how it is reported in Kazakhstan. There are active, competent media in Kazakhstan, which are largely unknown in the West. An examination of these incidents using the media in Kazakhstan can provide a unique insight into what took place. While Western sources quickly blamed radical religious groups with international connections, media in Kazakhstan have found that there are other reasons for the violence.     

Walking a tightrope: the International Criminal Court and conflict prevention in Africa

Many African countries gained political independence in the 1960s. This era of independence came with promises and great expectations of economic, political and social development. Fifty years later, it is certain that the promises and expectations of independence have not been easily realised. Perennial violent conflicts have continued to ravage many countries in Africa, causing the catastrophic breakdown of law and order. Therefore, one of the major issues in conflict resolution discourse in Africa is how to develop functional mechanisms for the prevention of violent conflicts. This article examines the capacity of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to act as a mechanism for conflict prevention in Africa. Notwithstanding the doubts and uncertainties associated with the impact of law on conflict transformation, this article argues in the main that the ICC contributes to conflict prevention in Africa by expressing global norms of international law, challenging the culture of impunity in some countries, contributing to general deterrence, speedily intervening in some violent conflicts, and contributing to building some records of atrocities by identifying who did what.     

The African warlord revisited

To date, warlordism in Africa has been viewed solely negatively. This has come about, in part, because of the analytical lenses that have been used. Typically, warlordism has been examined at the state level; and behavioural traits, rather than definitionally necessary components, have been the focus. In effect, ‘warlord’ has been confused with other violent actors. I suggest here a reconceptualisation ‘from below’, which takes into account variation in types of warlordism, and which allows for both positive and negative effects of warlordism on society and the state.     

Territoriality of radical Islam: comparative analysis of jihadist groups' approach to territory

ABSTRACT

The paper compares political territoriality of selected jihadist violent non-state actors. Looking at selected groups that attempted to control territory (Afghan Taliban, Al-Shabaab, the Islamic State), it attempts to establish a generalization regarding the use of territory by this type of violent non-state actors. To this end, it analyses connection of territory to groups´ security provision, economic activity, and identity. Despite many differences among the groups, it concludes that these groups often utilize both territorial and personal characteristics. Territoriality of these actors is reactive as they are unable to present a sustained control in contested regions.     

Military autonomy: its origins,limits, and the politico-military dialectic of war

Military officers often oppose political interference in the conduct of war. Political leaders respond by citing Clausewitz’s contention that “war is the continuation of politics with the addition of other means.” Scholarship in security studies and civil-military relations argues that civilians are right to oppose military autonomy because it serves the parochial interests of the military. However, through the dialectical relationship between the violent essence of war and its political nature, Clausewitz provides an alternative explanation for military demands for autonomy. He shows that military and political leaders are prone to an incomplete understanding of war that can undermine strategy and policy.     

不同游戏方式下的暴力网络游戏对大学生攻击性的影响

目的:探讨不同游戏方式下的暴力网络游戏对不同攻击性特质大学生攻击性的影响。方法:采用攻击性特质问卷、词汇决策任务和竞争反应时任务对60名大学生进行问卷和实验研究。结果:在不同游戏方式下,被试表现出的攻击性认知和行为存在显著差异(F(2,52)=4.41,P<0.05;F(1,52)=50.06,P<0.001)。高、低攻击性特质者在游戏后的攻击性认知和行为上存在显著差异(F(1,52)=15.25,P<0.001;F(1,52)=82.35,P<0.001)。结论:不同游戏方式下的暴力网络游戏对大学生的攻击性存在不同的影响,相比竞争游戏和单人游戏,合作游戏是一种较好的游戏方式,可以在一定程度减少大学生,特别是高攻击性特质大学生的攻击性认知和行为。此外,暴力网络游戏对大学生攻击性认知和攻击性行为的影响存在一致性。     

Insurgency in amber: ethnic opposition groups in Myanmar

Multiple ethnic insurgencies have existed in Myanmar since independence. The military junta's response has been extremely brutal at the tactical level, but has shown some political astuteness at the strategic level, with a series of ceasefires with most of the ethnic groups. Despite these ceasefires – most of which have resulted in the continued existence of quasi-independent armed groups – other ethnic movements have continued their armed operations. The overall strategic picture is one of stalemate, with the ethnic movements continuing to exist, but with few realistic prospects of expanding their operations.     

Too little,too late: protecting American soft networks in COIN/CT

ABSTRACT

Assistance of local-national partners is necessary to the USA in order to protect its national security interests throughout the world. These partners, typically individuals who support USA diplomats, service members, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in non-combatant roles, form USA soft networks. Due to the nature of their work, many of these individuals associated with the policy and actions of the USA become vulnerable to violent threats from adversaries. In fact, adversaries have grasped that attacking USA soft networks is a logical approach for enemies fighting from positions of weakness. As a result, examination of other domains may yield best practices that build resiliency in USA soft networks, thereby cementing national security interests. Further, agency theory illuminates critical principles in the relationships between local-national partners and field practitioners, and informs policy development efforts as a result.     

Missile warfare and violent non-state actors: the case of Hezbollah

Over the last three decades, Hezbollah adapted its military strategy and the operational function conferred to its missiles. Starting in 1992, rocket warfare became one of the primary tactics of the group to compel Israeli Forces in Lebanon. After the Israeli withdrawal in 2000, the strategy evolved into a deterrence posture to support the Party’s objective to remain the primary military power inside Lebanon. Hezbollah’s posture could serve as a template for smaller terrorist groups. It would broaden the array of strategic options for violent non-state actors, allowing them to implement military postures that could be described as rudimentary and low-cost denial of access strategies. However, this scenario would require the same level of state support that Hezbollah currently enjoys from Iran, and that other non-state actors (Hamas, Houthi insurgents) do not at this stage.