舰船生命力评估方法初探

本文根据系统可靠性工程和可靠性数学的理论,提出了一种类似可靠性中的“故障树”的分析方法,即适合于舰船生命力评估的一种新方法—损伤树分析法(Damage Tree Analysis),简称DTA法。为解决舰船及各子系统在各种战损情况下生命力的评估问题,提供了一种较简便、通用的方法。     

第二次世界大战期间的舰船损害管制训练

1.前言第二次世界大战期间中国和美、英、苏等国是同盟国,共同对德、日、意诸法西斯轴心国作战。1945年初欧洲战场进入决战阶段,太平洋战区盟军虽已占优势,但战斗十分激烈,舰船损失严重,我就在这时以中国海军造船人员赴美服务团成员身份,参加了美国海军在费城建立的损害管制学校为期三周的学习。第一周主修舰船浮性与稳性原理在舰船损害管制(以后简称损管)中的应用要旨,以后两周学习舰上设备系统的损管工作,包括一些实际操作训练。     

非接触爆炸作用下舰船动力系统生命力的研究方法

分析非接触爆炸作用下舰船动力系统中主要设备的破坏模式 ,建立了动力设备的冲击响应模式 ,并给出了在非接触爆炸作用下用于舰船动力系统生命力评估的系统破坏概率计算机仿真计算方法。     

基于实际案例的导弹装备战斗损伤评估

指出了基于实际案例的通用导弹装备战斗损伤评估内容及特点,提出了战斗损伤评估的量化标准,定义了战损率的概念;采用向量夹角余弦方法综合出了导弹装备各级组件的战损率及车辆的战损量化值,并通过实例证明了该方法具有所需信息量小、主客观综合性强、评估方法易于仿真实现等优点.     

模糊综合评判在战斗损伤评估中的应用

应用模糊综合评判对某型火炮的试验数据进行了初步分析,通过聚类分析得出了该型火炮的易损部件(战斗损伤),以及参加试验的6门火炮的损伤等级。计算结果表明,在战损评估中应用模糊数学的方法是可行的。     

舰船不沉性计算数学模型

为研制损管教练仪,首先要解决利用计算机计算舰船破损进水后的浮态和稳性问题,本文就是为达到这一目的而提出的不沉性计算数学模型,着重于解决不沉性问题的数学根据和物理实质。不沉性计算工作量较大,以往都是采用简化的计算方法。在运用计算机后,就有可能用本文所介绍的较精确的计算方法求解不沉性问题。这种方法我们已经在TRS—80微型机上得到实现,证明是完全可行的。     

蓝镜头

美国新型两栖船坞登陆舰完成海试美国新型两栖船坞登陆舰"新奥尔良"号(LPD18)2006年12月4日至7曰成功接受了海试,诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司舰船系统分公司验证了该船主动力装置、舰艇控制、作战、损管控制和人员支持等系     

基于物元贝叶斯网的舰船损伤定位

在分析了物元理论和贝叶斯网理论的基础上,提出了结合主观概率信息和客观状态信息的物元贝叶斯网模型,并给出了物元贝叶斯网在损伤定位中的推理算法.舰船损伤定位的案例分析表明,该方法可以更加全面地融合战损装备的状态信息,使损伤定位结果更为准确.     

舰船推进轴系设计方案的综合评估

探讨了将多目标决策理论应用于舰船推进轴系设计方案综合评估的方法 ,建立了推进轴系设计方案的多层次评估模型 ,讨论了基于层次分析法评估指标权值确定的矢量计算方法 ,给出了运用模糊隶属函数的底层典型定量指标的确定方法 .文中论述的方法对舰船推进轴系设计方案的科学评估决策具有实用价值     

老龄舰船总纵强度状态评估可行性研究

针对老龄舰船船体结构评估问题,首先引入了中国船级社2011版《现有船状态评估程序指南》;然后,论述了老龄舰船的腐蚀特点及腐蚀程度测定方法,并给出了剩余剖面模数计算方法。再以某舰船为例,依据该指南对其典型舱段总纵强度状态进行了评估;最后,运用ABAQUS有限元软件直接对该舱段的现有状态总纵强度进行了计算并与《现有船状态评估程序指南》得出的总纵强度状态评估结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:该指南对于老龄舰船技术状态评估具有良好的可行性和适用性。     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.