基于故障率的舰艇维修备品备件优化配置

针对战时武器装备对抗强度大,对维修保障率要求较高的特点,建立舰艇维修备品备件资源优化配置模型。根据不同备品备件故障率分布,建立了舰艇装备保障率计算模型和备品备件保障费用约束模型,根据作战任务特点进行了多目标决策,通过案例分析,验证了模型的可行性和有效性,对提升舰艇装备保障率、保障舰艇作战任务的执行具有重要意义。     

备件消耗信息的鱼雷贮存可靠性评估

鱼雷服役后属于长期贮存装备,那么开展其贮存可靠性研究具有重要意义.针对鱼雷备件信息较易获得的现实,开展了其备件消耗数据结构的分析研究,提出了基于成败型数据处理鱼雷贮存失效数据的方法,并且结合ZIP模型的思想建立了鱼雷的备件统计模型,并利用矩估计方法对鱼雷贮存可靠性进行了评估.最后利用计算机进行了大量的数据仿真,通过与真值对比分析验证了方法的可行性,可以较为客观地评估鱼雷贮存可靠性.     

基于多目标优化模型的武器装备体系能力规划

武器装备体系能力规划是武器装备体系研究的重要内容.在武器装备体系能力空间描述的基础上,将规划时间和规划成本作为优化目标,建立了武器装备体系能力规划的多目标优化模型,提供了基于武器装备体系能力空间描述到能力规划模型的建模方法,采用多目标遗传算法对优化模型进行求解.在此基础上,提供了武器装备体系能力差距定量分析的方法,为武...     

基于模糊综合评判的武器装备体系运用风险评估

为实时有效地评价和跟踪武器装备体系(system of systems,So S)运用过程中的风险,对武器装备体系运用中的风险进行模糊综合评判。分析了武器装备体系运用风险的内容,并对武器装备体系运用风险内容进行了层次划分,建立了武器装备体系运用的风险评价模型,对武器装备体系运用风险进行了多级模糊综合评判。通过模型的建立,为武器装备运用风险的评判提供了一种简便实用的方法。     

基于UPDM的武器装备体系建模

从武器装备体系论证的特性出发,采用基于模型的系统工程方法对UPDM (Unified Platform for Defense Modeling)进行了系统分析,研究了基于UPDM的武器装备体系建模方法和建模过程.通过分析使命能力,确认与任务相对应的场景,建立基于时序的能力与任务描述模型,实现武器装备体系作战能力所需的指控过程与多个杀伤链场景,并对模型的时序逻辑进行形式化的测试与验证.建模方法具备武器装备体系模型验证能力,为武器装备体系的作战性能和作战效能评估提供了支持.     

武器装备备件需求量计算的方法研究

从武器装备的综合保障工作出发,概述了武器装备备件的涵义及分类,分析了武器装备综合保障的重要参数及影响战备完好性的重要参数战备保障率,并针对几种典型备件类型,提出了与之对应的备件需求量预测数学模型。     

备品备件需求确定方法探讨

分析了备品备件需求确定的重要性,探讨了结合现有的国家军用标准进行备品备件需求确定的程序与方法,对现有方法存在的问题进行了分析并提出了建议.     

基于排队系统的GERT模型的故障装备数量预测

针对排队维修系统的故障武器装备数量预测的难点,提出了利用GERT随机网络模型对故障武器装备数量进行预测,GERT随机网络模型是一种针对随机变化的系统的一种网络描述,恰好能解决故障武器装备数量的预测问题,准确的故障装备数量预测是武器装备科学管理的一个重要环节。通过实例验证表明,GERT随机网络模型是解决故障武器装备数量预测的一种有效手段和方法。     

一种快速确定导弹火力需求量的方法

快速火力需求分析是武器装备使用与保障所面临的重要问题.基于打击单目标情况,首先引入毁伤概率作为导弹火力需求指标,提出了考虑射程影响时的3种CEP快速计算模型,并利用概率论与飞行器试验统计的相关知识建立了一套比较完善的确定导弹火力需求量的方法.最后的计算结果表明该方法是行之有效的.     

武器装备体系建设风险分析及评估模型研究

分析了武器装备体系建设风险的内涵及特点,在此基础上构建了武器装备体系建设风险模型,并运用风险矩阵和网络层次分析法对武器装备体系建设风险模型进行分析,通过算例验证了模型的可行性,为制定科学合理的武器装备体系建设风险管理提供了依据。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Panjwai: a tale of two COINs in Afghanistan

The US Army has two approaches to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan. One is hard, or combat-focused, and the other is soft, or development-focused. This study examines two US Army task forces deployed to Panjwai District, Afghanistan from 2012 to 2013. CTF 4-9 and 1-38 offer a meaningful comparison because they pursued these contrasting approaches among the same population and against the same enemy at the same time and place. The study compares each unit’s approach and finds that neither approach was successful absent the other. The article concludes by recommending further research into combining the approaches at the operational level.