军队成品油市场多阶段重复博弈分析

讨论了军队成品油市场面临的竞争环境,分析了市场主体的行为特点,构建了军队成品油市场的完全信息单阶段博弈寻租模型和不完全信息下多阶段重复博弈模型,提出了减少企业寻租行为的政策建议。     

布什：笑到最后能否笑得最好

1998年我国开始进行原油、成品油价格与国际接轨的探索。对成品油而言,目前的办法是根据国际上月成品油价格,定出国内本月成品油价格。1月13日,根据国际市场油价变化,我国成品油价格再次下调。     

燃油税开征给汽车市场传递四大信号

日前，根据公布的《成品油价税费改革方案（征求意见稿）》，中国将在不提高现行成品油价格的前提下，将汽油消费税单位税额由每升0．2元提高到1元，柴油由每升0．1元提高到0．8元，取消公路养路费等六项收费。这意味着，困扰我国多年的燃油税问题将以增加成品油消费税的方式加以解决。那么，即将开征的燃油税给汽车市场传递哪些信号？笔者认为有如下四个方面。     

基于博弈论的民营企业在军品市场中的利益分析

对民营企业进入军品市场进行博弈分析,有利于解决军民融合深度发展中存在的矛盾与问题。分析了军品市场博弈主体的行为和动机,构建了民营企业进入军品市场的博弈经济模型,对民营企业与军品市场中各主体之间的博弈关系进行了定性和定量分析,揭示了政府通过合理地设置准入门槛可以保证军品市场最优的经济规模,提高民营企业获得军品订单的概率可以减少寻租情况的发生,以及以军方需求偏好为导向可以增加订单量等客观规律。     

武器装备市场现状及价格工作对策分析

我国武器装备市场通过供需双方之间的博弈,近年已发生了较大的变化。本文通过分析我国武器装备市场的现状,提出对策建议,即应适应武器装备市场的变化,制定切实可行的价格政策,同时紧盯单一来源采购价格管理,发挥军方主导价格作用,进一步推进武器装备采购市场竞争,提高武器装备价格工作的有效性。     

国防研发中的团队激励机制设计

国防研发是一种典型的团队工作,个人的研发行为具有外部性、信息不对称、技术垄断等特点,这直接导致国防研发中普遍存在市场失灵。文章运用博弈理论对国防研发中个人行为的选择进行分析,提出了建立国防研发团队激励机制的政策建议。     

军品市场准入与政府管制的产权研究

非公有制企业进入与退出军品市场,实际上是国防产业结构和产业组织内生的动态演进过程。在这一过程中,军品市场的约束条件和军品价格起着十分重要的作用。用现代产权理论和军品价格理论来分析,厂商与军方的交易关系,在本质上是产权交易。如果产权交易成本太高,交易双方难以达到产权博弈均衡点,这就需要政府进行社会性管制。正确界定政府对军品市场的社会性管制边界,对于降低交易成本,增加交易者的选择空间,减少市场失灵的干扰,提高市场效率和管制效率具有重要意义。     

装备采办中一级密封招标的博弈均衡分析

针对装备采办中的一级密封招标问题，分析了招标过程中的博弈特点，给出了一维贝叶斯均衡的求解方法和解析表达式，论证了在军工企业的最优战略是选择博弈的贝叶斯均衡，军方的选择是增加竞标者的人数。然后，重点分析了招标过程中的多维博弈问题，给出了多维贝叶斯均衡的一般求解方法，并针对特定的事例进行了多维均衡分析。最后，在多维博弈的框架下对一维博弈和多维博弈的均衡结果进行比较分析，结果表明：在一级密封招标过程中，多维博弈均衡是军工企业的最优战略。     

国际市场军品采办思考

本文阐述了国际市场军品采办的总原则，分析了国际军品市场的新发展及其新特点，提出了国际市场军品采购的几点思考。     

准入国防工业的民营企业的融资壁垒——基于非对称信息的分析

文章着眼于关乎市场进入者生存的融资问题，从准入的民营企业与银行之间的融资博弈、准入的民营企业与原军工企业的融资竞争两大方面，分析了准入国防工业的民营企业融资的信息壁垒，并运用模型分析给出了消解融资壁垒的政策建议。     

战役野战油库油料输送力量优化分配研究

如何科学、合理分配战役野战油库油料输送力量是战时油料保障必须面临的一个实际问题。首先根据战役野战油库运油车分配模型得到一个运油车初始分配方案,然后运用计算机模拟技术对分配方案进行模拟,并根据模拟结果不断调整,直至得到优化的分配方案,为制定战役野战油库油料输送计划提供决策依据。     

Probabilistic resource pooling games

We study a setting with a single type of resource and with several players, each associated with a single resource (of this type). Unavailability of these resources comes unexpectedly and with player‐specific costs. Players can cooperate by reallocating the available resources to the ones that need the resources most and let those who suffer the least absorb all the costs. We address the cost savings allocation problem with concepts of cooperative game theory. In particular, we formulate a probabilistic resource pooling game and study them on various properties. We show that these games are not necessarily convex, do have non‐empty cores, and are totally balanced. The latter two are shown via an interesting relationship with Böhm‐Bawerk horse market games. Next, we present an intuitive class of allocation rules for which the resulting allocations are core members and study an allocation rule within this class of allocation rules with an appealing fairness property. Finally, we show that our results can be applied to a spare parts pooling situation.     

The effects of customer rebates and retailer incentives on a manufacturer's profits and sales

In some industries such as automotive, production costs are largely fixed and therefore maximizing revenue is the main objective. Manufacturers use promotions directed to the end customers and/or retailers in their distribution channels to increase sales and market share. We study a game theoretical model to examine the impact of “retailer incentive” and “customer rebate” promotions on the manufacturer's pricing and the retailer's ordering/sales decisions. The main tradeoff is that customer rebates are given to every customer, while the use of retailer incentives is controlled by the retailer. We consider several models with different demand characteristics and information asymmetry between the manufacturer and a price discriminating retailer, and we determine which promotion would benefit the manufacturer under which market conditions. When demand is deterministic, we find that retailer incentives increase the manufacturer's profits (and sales) while customer rebates do not unless they lead to market expansion. When the uncertainty in demand (“market potential”) is high, a customer rebate can be more profitable than the retailer incentive for the manufacturer. With numerical examples, we provide additional insights on the profit gains by the right choice of promotion.© 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

油料洞库油罐通气管道设计分析

油料洞库油罐通气管道是油罐进行大呼吸、小呼吸的通道，使油罐气体空间的正负压力处于规定的压力范围，达到保护油罐安全的作用。通过计算油罐阻火器和油罐通气管道的压力损失，结合油罐呼吸阀的压力等级、油罐收发油流量等参数，分析了不同油罐通气管道管径对油罐内正负压力的影响，提出了油罐通气管道管径的选择原则。最后就油罐通气管道内油气的燃爆特性，提出了油罐通气管道的材质要求及其附设的抗爆振性要求。     

细水雾抑制淬火油火灾的实验研究

由于淬火油的特殊理化性质,传统的水灭火方式不适用扑救淬火油火灾。迄今为止,虽然有人对淬火油的火灾防治进行了研究,但用细水雾扑灭淬火油这类粘度较大,热值较高的矿物油火的研究还不是非常深入。从淬火油的燃烧特性出发,通过模拟真实的火灾场景和对比实验,评估细水雾对此类火灾的控制、抑制和扑灭的过程。     

基于黏度和介电常数的柴油机机油质量监测研究

对某重型柴油机机油在使用过程中混入柴油、冷却液、烟炱等污染的情况进行模拟试验,在纯净的机油中分别混入柴油、冷却液和烟炱并搅拌均匀,配成不同百分比的模拟污染油液,利用油品传感器FPS(Fluid PropertySensor)测量模拟污染油液的黏度、介电常数和温度。试验表明:当机油中混入柴油、冷却液和烟炱时,机油的黏度或介电常数随着混入的百分比变化而变化;试验得出了它们之间的定量关系式。通过实车机油质量的检测认为:该方法可以用于机油的在线监测,为机油的按质换油提供监测方法和手段。     

如何做好社会主义市场经济条件下的思想政治工作

思想政治工作是社会主义精神文明建设的重要手段,是社会主义市场经济发展的有机组成部分.做好社会主义市场经济条件下的思想政治工作,必须认识思想工作的新环境,解放思想,转变观念,帮助人们确立市场取向的改革意识,增加思想政治工作的适应性.     

萃取-絮凝组合精制再生废润滑油

根据溶剂精制再生废润滑油环保、经济、高效的特点,采用单因素实验方法,应用极性溶剂为萃取剂、乙二胺为絮凝剂,组合精制再生废润滑油。最佳工艺条件为:萃取剂为正丁醇,精制时间为15 min,精制温度为25℃,剂/油质量比为5∶1,絮凝剂添加比例为1.0%。以该精制工艺操作,再生油性能指标得到明显改善,黏温指数达130以上,闪点达200℃,酸值为0.05 mg.g-1,灰分质量分数降低到0.01%以下,金属元素含量显著下降,再生油产率为80.6%,各项性能基本上符合HVI150基础油指标,表明该精制工艺再生废润滑油可行,应用前景广阔。     

The Effects of Terrorism on Turkish Financial Markets

Abstract

In this research, we analyzed how Turkish financial markets and foreign investors in the stock market reacted to the terror attacks in Turkey. Our analysis, which was performed using the terror index for the stock market and the foreign exchange market, revealed that returns, abnormal returns, and cumulative abnormal returns were not affected by the terror attacks; however, foreign investors in the stock market were affected. When the geographic regions of the terror attacks were analyzed, the findings showed that foreign investors were negatively affected mainly by the terror attacks that occurred in southeast Anatolia. Attack type and target type were important only for foreign investors. An evaluation of the interaction between the terror attacks and the markets with the involvement of the terrorist organizations indicated that only the foreign investors in the stock market were affected by Al-Qaeda and PKK-linked terror attacks. An evaluation of the effect of terror attacks in foreign countries on Turkish financial markets revealed no effect on the domestic stock market and foreign exchange markets. We also examined the volatility spillovers from the terror index to the stock market and found that terrorist attacks increased the volatility of the stock market.     

某加油车液压系统的温升控制

温升控制是液压系统设计的重要内容，其效果好坏直接影响着液压系统工作的可靠性。针对某加油车液压系统连续工作时间长、结构紧凑等特点，设计了一种新型的“油冷蛇形管”式液压油温控制系统，即将加油车自身输转的柴油导入液压油箱内的冷却管，对液压油实施强制冷却。经试验验证，取得了良好的温控效果。该方法取消了冷却水源，简化了结构，并达到了控制油温的目的，对类似系统的设计具有较好的借鉴意义。