中国人民解放军设计未来战争研究的源起及其影响

20世纪70年代末80年代初,在世界新技术革命浪潮中,新军事技术成群涌现、新军事理论暗下交锋,战争形态演变、作战样式更新的速度明显加快、幅度显著增大.人民解放军审视自身军事技术、军事理论与现代战争发展的差距,开始把研究战争的视角投向未来,把运筹战争的方式由被动应对转为主动设计.从1983年开始,以《解放军报》开设的"未来战场设计""超越型"研究专栏为代表,全军掀起了设计未来战争研究的热潮.通过早期的未来战争设计研究,人民解放军对未来战争环境变化、作战力量发展及战法更新进行超前预测,创新思维方式,加快转变过时的战争观念,开启了面向未来的战争视野,推动了军事革新与发展.     

高技术条件下战争成本与战争收益模式分析

文章在阐述战争成本与战争收益理论内涵的基础上,着重分析了高技术条件下战争成本与战争收益之间的相互关系,构建了二者比较分析的四种理论模式,阐明了对战争成本和收益的预测、比较和判断在未来战争决策中所发挥的重要作用。     

谈战争财力消耗的科学预测

战争财力消耗的科学预测,可为战争财力准备、编制作战经费预算以及作战经费支出总结等提供依据。预测战争财力消耗,应充分考虑预测范围的全局性、预测因素的重要性,以及预测方法的简便性。在具体方法上,应合理设计预测模型,建立系统数据库,并开发系统功能模块。     

未来十种全新作战大预测(一)——虚似对抗战

当今信息社会,高新科学技术潮流急进,武器装备日新月异,战争样式不断更新。发达国家普遍注重以超前的科学预测设计未来战场,明确战争需求,创新作战理论,牵引军事和国防建设发展,提高全民国防素质,以保持战略上的主动地位。同样,加强未来战争预测,对于推动高技术条件下我军作战理论的创新和全民的国防教育,具有不可或缺的作用。本刊从这一期开始,将陆续发表“未来十种全新作战大预测”系列文章,把您带进科学构想的未来神奇军事世界。     

借鉴历史经验 加强军事预测研究

军事预测已成为当今各主要国家军事科学界研究的热门课题。它主要包括对本国和敌对、潜在敌对国家的军事理论、军事学术、武装力量建设、军事技术的发展前景,以及对未来战争形式、进程和结局所作出的分析判断;为本国在未来战争中的战略目标,兵力部署和作     

未来战争形式预测（一）——虚拟对抗战

当今信息社会,高新科学技术潮流急进,武器装备日新月异,战争样式不断更新。发达国家普遍注重以超前的科学预测设计未来战场,明确战争需求,刨新作战理论,牵引军事和国防建设发展,提高全民国防素质,以保持战略上的主动地位。本刊从这一期开始,将陆续发表“未来全新作战大预测”系列文章,把您带进科学构想的未来神奇军事世界。     

战争工程理论基础 系统思想

战争工程将战争看成是各组分相互作用的复杂适应系统,整体上对战争进行科学研究.其理论基础是以系统科学理论和系统工程方法为代表的系统思想.在新三论、老三论这些传统理论基础上,以复杂适应系统理论、复杂网络理论、人工生命理论为代表的新理论,进一步丰富了系统思想的内容,为战争工程研究提供了新理论和新方法.本文着重阐述了战争工程中的系统思想与理论基础,以及这些理论在战争工程中的应用.由军事科学、系统科学、信息科学、复杂性科学等多学科交叉渗透构成的战争工程,必将为信息化战争研究提供新思维和新方法.     

向打仗聚焦 提高党委的快速决策能力

提高党委班子预判于前的能力。一是加强班子成员对信息化战争的研究。只有对信息化战争进行研究,才能了解现代战争的特点、找准对手的弱点、发现自己的优势,才能拥有灵敏的战争嗅觉。二是加强班子成员超前思维训练。班子成员要学会从战役战斗与战争全局、各战役之间的联系上来考虑问题,立足整体,统筹全局,分析预测战争形势发展方向,进行超前思维,以便早计划、早决策,掌握战争的主动权。     

毛泽东的战争预测思想初探

毛泽东的战争预测思想初探胡哲峰预测是对未知事物和过程的判断。战争预测是对未来战争全局和运动过程作出的超前判断,是一项探求未知战争领域和战争趋势的活动,是战争决策的前提,是进行战争指导的基础。在长期的革命战争实践中,毛泽东主席坚持马克思主义的认识论和方...     

军事元宇宙的应用与发展方向研究

本文在分析元宇宙概念和相关技术的基础上,提出了针对应用场景构建一体化、标准化的完备军事生态系统。在分析军事元宇宙生态系统概念和主要构成的基础上,提出了通过集成运用数字空间、虚拟/现实深度融合交互、构建网络信息体系等高新技术和重大工程建设智能化军事应用体系的思路;预测了研究新的战场理论、新的战争形态和新的军事技术应用等的可行性。最后,在分析和运用虚拟/现实相关军事应用的基础上,对具有智能化特征的未来信息化战争的作战方式与特点进行了预测,以期为提高网络信息体系下的联合作战理论水平和保障能力提供参考。     

公安现役部队非战争军事行动训练面临的挑战与对策

当前,边境安全形势复杂、训练理念陈旧、部队勤训矛盾突出、训练内容与安排不合理、训练保障能力有限等主客观因素,制约着公安现役部队非战争军事行动训练的开展,对公安现役部队形成非战争军事行动战斗力构成了挑战。树立科学的非战争军事行动训练指导思想与理念,创新训练方法和手段,优化训练内容,加强教员队伍建设和训练基地建设,是改进非战争军事行动训练的有效对策。     

关于法律战的若干问题研究

在军事斗争中,我军应准确把握法律战的含义,使军事斗争与法律战有机结合。在信息化战争条件下,法律战正面临着前所未有的挑战。法律战只有与舆论战、心理战相结合,才能发挥出“三战”整体效益。军事优势是法律战获胜的前提和关键。武警部队应结合军事工作的基本特点,努力提高法律战的作战能力。     

What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of civil war on military expenditure. We employ two measures of military expenditure: the share of military expenditure in general government expenditure and the logarithm of military expenditures. We would reasonably expect a priori that military expenditure as a share of general government expenditure increases during a civil war and that such increases would taper off over the duration of a civil war. We also explore whether the termination of a civil war induces a decline in the share of military expenditure as a share of the general government expenditure in the short-run. We find evidence the of share of military expenditure increases during a civil war and falls in the year succeeding the end of a civil war, and, in particular, if a war ends in a peace treaty. The level of military expenditures, however, rises during civil wars and does not appear to decline in the short-term after the end of a civil war.     

毛泽东军事思想对古代兵学文化的传承与发展

毛泽东军事思想植根于中国古代兵学文化的土壤,它的战争观、军事伦理价值观、战争谋略法等思想,与中国古代社会"仁战"、"义战"、"以民为本"、"以奇制胜"、"以礼治军"等战略方法、战略思想一脉相承,同时也是对古代兵学文化的创造性发展,是中国革命战争实践、马列主义军事思想和古代兵学文化相结合的产物。     

A Typology of War Ethics

Interdisciplinary communication on war is impeded by doctrinal gaps concerning its morality, immorality, and amorality. Much is written on ad bellum ethical standards for military force by states, mainly in the fields of international politics and religious studies. However, a necessary first step in comparing these different approaches to war ethics with each other is to develop a system for classifying them. The classification system offered in this paper places war ethics on a grid with two scales. One axis of the grid ranges from permissiveness to restrictiveness. The other axis ranges from regard for self to regard for others. Twelve forms of war ethics are assigned points within the grid, including pacifism, just war, holy war, UN Charter obligations, several variants of realism, cost–benefit analysis, isolationism, and various ideological war ethics such as communist and fascist approaches. In doing so, this paper lays the groundwork for “quantifying” war ethics, to enable measurements of their effects against other state-level characteristics and outcomes of interaction.     

破解军队“两个不够”问题的措施建议

文章就习主席提出的"两个不够"问题——打现代化战争能力不够及指挥现代化战争能力不够,提出了在全军实行《岗位资格认证制度》和《岗位轮换制度》,在全军院校实施"教学名师工程",以及进一步加强部队训练与考核大纲体系建设三点措施建议。     

试论构建我军遂行非战争军事行动的科学机制

我军拥有丰富的遂行非战争军事行动理论总结和实践经验,但总体来说,还缺乏一个遂行具体任务的科学机制。从构建我军遂行非战争军事行动的操作机制、运行机制和保障机制入手,构建我军遂行非战争军事行动的科学机制,为新形势下我军更好地遂行非战争军事行动提供理论指导。     

吴起战争观浅议

吴起是战国时期伟大的军事家,他在继承前人兵学理论、总结当时战争经验的基础上,系统地论述了其战争观念,并形成了许多新的见解。其战争观丰富了中国古代的兵学理论,在中国兵学发展史上具有重大的意义。     

Fighting a Just War in the Midst of an Unreasonable International Strife: World War I and the Collapse of the Central European System of the Triple Imperial Dominion

ABSTRACT

This article constitutes an attempt to demonstrate the complexity of factors affecting the legitimate acquisition and reasonable exercise by a political community of the right to war as specified in the just war criteria of jus ad bellum. To achieve this purpose, a brief analysis is presented of the intentional participation in World War I of thousands of Polish volunteers forming military units deployed by the Central Powers on the Austrian-Russian front. Considered in light of the standard principles of just war, the military enterprise of the Polish Legions, as they were called, turns out to be a paradoxical instance of warfare which, while being part of a state-to-state aggression, must be deemed compliant with all the principles in question. As a means of explaining this paradox, a modification of the concept of justified intervention is proposed, embracing military efforts aimed at the ultimate defeat of all the (unjustly) warring parties operating within a given territory. In consonance with the classic just war approach, it is also argued that the justification for such an intervention is essentially dependent on its being initiated by, or attributable to, an unquestionable state agent acting in defence of the state’s basic prerogatives.     

How do wars end? A multidisciplinary enquiry

ABSTRACT

The cessation of military confrontations rarely coincides with the end of war. Legal and political matters continue after the last shot has been fired, civilians driven from their homes try to rebuild their houses and their lives, veterans need to adapt to their new role in civil society, and the struggle to define the history and the significance of past events only begins. In recent years, in particular, the changes in the character of contemporary warfare have created uncertainties across different disciplines about how to identify and conceptualise the end of war. It is therefore an opportune moment to examine how wars end from a multidisciplinary perspective that combines enquiries into the politics of war, the laws of war and the military and intellectual history of war. This approach enables both an understanding of how ‘the end’ as a concept informs the understanding of war in international relations, in international law and in history and a reconsideration of the nature of scientific method in the field of war studies as such.