数据同化系统中的集合时间局地化鲁棒滤波方法

针对传统的卡尔曼滤波方法对不确定因素不具备鲁棒性问题,在集合鲁棒滤波的基础上,提出一种从观测角度构建优化数据同化的方法,称之为放大观测协方差矩阵的集合时间局地化鲁棒滤波,并推导了新方法的算法准则和递归公式。利用非线性系统Lorenz-96模型,基于性能水平系数、驱动参数、观测数目和集合数目变化的条件,对新方法和集合卡尔曼滤波方法的鲁棒性和同化精度进行比较。结果表明:集合卡尔曼滤波方法的均方根误差大于时间局地化鲁棒滤波的;在观测数或集合数较少的情况下,集合卡尔曼滤波出现了滤波发散问题,而鲁棒滤波的均方根误差波动较小;相较于传统的集合卡尔曼滤波算法,观测角度构建的时间局地化的H_∞滤波方法对系统参数的变化更具鲁棒性,滤波精度更高。     

SINS/GPS 组合导航系统的修正自适应滤波方法

模型误差和噪声是导致SINS/GPS组合导航计算发散的主要原因.提出了一种适用SINS/GPS组合导航计算的残差监控加权修正自适应卡尔曼滤波方法,利用滤波残差的均值和方差不断对卡尔曼滤波的状态噪声方差阵和测量噪声方差阵进行实时修正,提高了滤波器对模型不确定性和噪声变化的适应能力和鲁棒性,显著改善了组合导航系统的定位精度.通过SINS/GPS组合导航系统仿真,验证了方法的可行性.     

SINS/DVL/AST水下组合导航中的鲁棒信息融合方法

捷联式惯导系统由于自主性强等优势成为自主式水下航行器长航时、长航程导航的主要手段。针对水下环境中外部多导航传感器如多普勒计程仪提供的测速信息和水声单应答器提供的位置信息容易受到非高斯噪声污染的问题,提出基于马氏距离算法的联邦鲁棒卡尔曼滤波算法。在联邦鲁棒卡尔曼滤波算法中,通过马氏距离算法引入膨胀因子,对量测噪声协方差阵进行膨胀,以实现非高斯条件下水下组合导航系统鲁棒性的提升。同时基于子滤波器的滤波性能对信息分配系数进行自适应调整以确保水下组合导航系统的高精度。基于江试试验实测数据进行水下组合导航半物理仿真试验,试验结果表明:相比于传统的联邦卡尔曼滤波算法,联邦鲁棒卡尔曼滤波算法可在非高斯条件下实现更高精度、更加稳定的组合导航；能够满足水下组合导航系统对容错性和鲁棒性的要求。     

高超声速飞行器组合导航系统研究

为提高高超声速飞行器的导航精度,在SINS/GPS位置、速度组合导航模型基础上增加了GPS姿态信息,推导了姿态算法中姿态角误差与平台误差角的关系。通过理论分析说明了其可消除数学模型误差,提高系统的姿态精度,并以此建立了SINS/GPS组合导航系统姿态、位置、速度观测方程。通过仿真验证了该算法的有效性,结果表明SINS/GPS姿态、位置、速度组合导航可以有效提高高超声速飞行器导航定位精度。     

基于UKF算法的SINS/GPS全组合导航系统研究

将UKF算法用于低成本的SINS/GPS全姿态组合导航系统中,提出了一种GPS测量姿态角的方法,推导了姿态角误差与平台失准角的关系,建立了系统的非线性误差模型,设计了UKF滤波器。仿真结果表明,通过将UKF算法用于SINS/GPS全姿态组合导航系统中,系统的可观测性得到了改善,提高了导航精度。     

Unscented粒子滤波算法在合成孔径声纳组合导航中的应用

研究了基于捷联惯导(SINS)、多普勒声速剖面仪(ADCP)的水下组合导航方法。建立了基于四元数的SINS/ADCP误差模型。针对一般粒子滤波算法中存在的粒子退化问题,对Unscented粒子滤波算法进行了研究,并应用于SAS导航模型。算法采用Unscented卡尔曼滤波(UKF)引入了最新观测量来产生粒子滤波(PF)的建议密度分布,提高了状态估计的性能。仿真结果表明:在SAS复杂的运动情况下,UPF算法比传统粒子滤波算法具有更高的精度。     

平方根Spherical Simplex UKF在飞船姿态估计中的应用

提出了一种用矢量观测来估计飞船姿态的平方根spherical simplex unscented卡尔曼滤波算法。该算法将spherical simplex unscented变换与unscented卡尔曼滤波结合起来,与采用scaled unscented变换的unscented卡尔曼滤波相比,具有更低的计算量。其平方根形式由于协方差阵的半正定性,拥有更好的数值稳定性。飞船的姿态运动学描述采用了四元数,而用广义罗德里格斯参数来克服卡尔曼滤波过程中的四元数归一化误差。仿真结果表明,该算法比标准扩展卡尔曼滤波具有更低的姿态估计误差及更快的收敛率。     

基于单GPS观测的SINS姿态校正方法

针对车(船)载惯性和GPS组合导航系统(INS/GPS),研究单天线GPS对INS的姿态校正方法。提出一种基于单天线GPS进行捷联惯导(SINS)机动中对准和姿态校正方法,该方法以GPS两个不同时刻的不共线速度向量为参考向量,利用TRIAD算法进行姿态确定,并设计了Kalman滤波器估计姿态四元数。仿真试验表明该方案能较好地校正惯导系统的初始对准误差,并通过实时校正保持长期的姿态精度。     

级联SINS/GPS系统的相关卡尔曼滤波

针对级联式 SINS/ GPS导航系统中组合滤波器的测量噪声与系统噪声的相关问题 ,提出了一种相关程度未知条件下的估计量最优融合算法 ,并由此得到了一个顾及噪声相关性的卡尔曼滤波新算法。通过对一套 SINS/ GPS数据的计算 ,证明了新算法是成功的     

基于磁强计和光纤陀螺的小卫星姿态确定非线性滤波算法

提出了一种小卫星姿态确定的非线性滤波算法,该算法利用三轴磁强计和光纤陀螺作为姿态敏感器。在非线性滤波器的设计中,从两个方面对平方根sigma点卡尔曼滤波方法进行改进。第一,把姿态四元数的矢量部分、光纤陀螺的漂移和噪声组合,得到滤波器的增广状态向量;第二,分别建立向量旋转模型、最优化模型和误差四元数乘法模型来确保非线性滤波过程中四元数的归一化约束。仿真分析结果表明,本文提出的非线性滤波算法能够有效地提高小卫星的定姿性能,与扩展卡尔曼滤波相比,具有较高的精度、稳定性和较快的收敛速度;与无迹卡尔曼滤波相比,收敛性相当,但是精度略优,稳定性和计算效率较高。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Reviews

Douglas S. Derrer, We Are All the Target: A Handbook of Terrorism Avoidance and Hostage Survival. Annapolis, MD: US Naval Institute Press, 1992. Pp. x+135, notes, index. $14.95. ISBN 01–55750–150–5

Ian Knight, Zulu: Isandlwana and Rorke's Drift, 22–23 January 1879. London: Windrow & Greene, 1992. Pp.136, 150 illus., incl 8 colour plates, maps, biblio. £35. ISBN 1–872004–23–7

Ian Knight, By the Orders of the Great White Queen: Campaigning in Zululand through the Eyes of the British Soldiers, 1879. London: Greenhill Books and Novato: Presidio Press, 1992. Pp. 272, 17 illus., 1 map. £18.95. ISBN 1–85367–122–3

Manfried Rauchensteiner and Erwin A. Schmidl (eds.), Formen des Krieges: vom Mittelalter zum ‘Low‐intensity’ Conflict’. Graz : Verlag Styria, 1991. Pp.208. DM35. ISBN 3–22–12139–7

Harold J. Kearsley, Maritime Power and the Twenty‐First Century. Dartmouth: Dartmouth Publishing Company, Limited, 1992. Pp.xv + 203, 13 diagrams, index. £32.50. ISBN 1–85521–288–9     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.