Pirates – The Young and the Jobless: The Effect of Youth Bulges and Youth Labor Market Integration on Maritime Piracy

This article examines the impact of youth bulges and the lack of perspective of this cohort associated with the insufficient absorption of the labor market on the emergence of piracy acts. For a large panel data-set on maritime piracy and armed robbery against ships for the period 1990–2015 negative binomial regression results indicate that a large fraction of young people in a country increases the likelihood of piracy attacks originating from that country. Further, the piracy-driving effect is conditional on constrains in the labor market. It increases when the young population is insufficiently integrated into the labor market and becomes insignificant for high levels of labor force participation. The dearth of prospects seems to lower the inhibition to make a living from criminal activity.     

Evasion policies for a vessel being chased by pirate skiffs

Piracy attack is a serious safety problem for maritime transport worldwide. Whilst various strategic actions can be taken, such as rerouting vessels and strengthening navy patrols, this still cannot completely eliminate the possibility of a piracy attack. It is therefore important for a commercial vessel to be equipped with operational solutions in case of piracy attacks. In particular, the choice of a direction for rapidly fleeing is a critical decision for the vessel. In this article, we formulate such a problem as a nonlinear optimal control problem. We consider various policies, such as maintaining a straight direction or making turns, develop algorithms to optimize the policies, and derive conditions under which these policies are effective and safe. Our work can be used as a real‐time decision making tool that enables a vessel master to evaluate different scenarios and quickly make decisions.     

Terror and Internal Migration in Israel

This paper empirically analyses the effect of terror on internal migration between Israeli subdistricts. Using a unique data-set comprising migration flows for the period 1999–2012 and the number of rocket and non-rocket attacks, we test the hypotheses that terror reduces migration into an affected subdistrict and increases migration out of it. According to our results, the effect of terror on migration is asymmetric as we only find evidence for the first hypothesis. This result remains when we use an instrumental variables strategy that corrects for underreporting of the number of rocket attacks. The largest effects of rocket attacks are found for migration into the Southern subdistrict of Ashqelon as well as into other border regions in Northern Israel, while non-rocket attacks also have substantial effects in the more populous centres of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.     

Convoys to combat Somali piracy

As the world becomes increasingly globalized, interruptions to international trade cannot be permitted. Piracy off the coast of Somalia has hampered international trade in the region and poses significant risks to the sailors required to navigate those waters. Over the past three years the global community has attempted, through a number of different naval tactics, to stop these acts of piracy; however, these tactics have proven ineffective. This article looks at historical precedence and military theory to support the concept of using convoys to protect the thousands of cargo vessels traveling round the Horn of Africa every year. This tactic will greatly decrease the number of successful pirate attacks and save countless lives in the process.     

Piracy,state capacity and root causes

By comparing the Somali experience of piracy with the emerging situation in the Gulf of Guinea, I show that increases in the enforcement aspects of state capacity in the Gulf of Guinea states are necessary but not sufficient tools to combat the emergence, growth, and institutionalisation of piracy. Such tools would require state-building measures that would minimise the incentives of individuals to join piracy organisations and they would have to effectively deal with youth unemployment, income inequality, and environmental degradation.     

Nuclear weapons,existential threats,and the stability–instability paradox

Recent scholarship has largely ignored systematic differences in the existential threats that nuclear-weapon possessors pose to other states. This study theorizes that the capacity to pose existential threats shapes nuclear-armed states’ willingness to use military force against one another. We explore three hypotheses regarding how nuclear-based existential threats can deter conflict or encourage it, including under the conditions proposed by the stability–instability paradox. We rely on a statistical analysis of nuclear-armed dyads from 1950 to 2001 and employ the Nuclear Annihilation Threat (NAT) Index to capture variation in the existential threats nuclear-armed states pose to one another. We find that being able to pose an existential threat to another state emboldens potential initiators to use military force but does not deter attacks. The emboldening effects are particularly strong under the hypothesized conditions of the stability–instability paradox. Our study provides unique contributions to ongoing debates over the political effects of nuclear weapons.     

Deterrence in the Gulf War

A recently published collection of captured Iraqi records offers an opportunity to better understand Saddam Hussein's perception of US and Israeli deterrence signals, affording innovative insights into the reasons behind Iraq's restraint from using weapons of mass destruction against Israeli targets during the 1991 Gulf War. This article tests a wide range of suggested hypotheses, and suggests that US and Israeli deterrence played only a minimal role in dissuading Iraqi use of WMD. The article concludes with some thoughts on the practical implications, particularly on the effectiveness of a “no-first-use” nuclear policy.     

分布式多目标跟踪中的数据融合问题——一种新的相容性准则及融合过程分析

用一个新观点讨论了利用分布式传感器网络进行多目标跟踪中出现的信息融合问题。对航迹相容性和假设相容性的判别问题 ,从一个新的观点 ,即“无矛盾原则”出发 ,给出了完整的与前人不同的航迹和假设相容性的判别条件。同时对航迹的融合过程和假设的融合过程做了详细的分析 ,证实两个假设相融合得到多个全局假设是合情合理的     

DES密码旁路立方体分析

将立方体分析和旁路攻击结合,基于8位汉明重泄露模型,首次对DES分组密码抗旁路立方体攻击安全性进行了评估．在黑盒攻击场景下,攻击者首先按照一定规则生成立方体和超多项式,然后利用不同选择明文,计算其在加密过程某比特的高阶差分,判断该立方体对应的超多项式是否合法．对DES加密输出第l轮输出不同字节进行了黑盒旁路立方体攻击实验,结果表明：未经防护的DES密码易遭黑盒旁路立方体攻击;如果攻击者能够精确获取加密第1轮输出某一字节的汉明重泄露,最好的攻击结果为2＾9.35个选择明文可将DES主密钥搜索空间降至2＾15．     

Privatizing the struggle against Somali piracy

Pirate attacks against commercial vessels in the Western Indian Ocean and nearby seas reached an unprecedented level in 2011. Despite concerted efforts by the international community and shipping companies to address this threat by conducting naval patrols and equipping commercial vessels with non-lethal defenses, the frequency of pirate attacks continues to increase. The general ineffectiveness of existing anti-piracy measures has sparked interest in expanding the use of armed private security contractors to protect commercial vessels from pirate attacks. This article argues that armed private security contractors can, indeed, enhance the security of commercial vessels because these actors can provide onsite protection for commercial vessels, which should allow them to respond very quickly to pirate attacks, and because these actors are willing to use deadly force against pirates. However, this article also argues that expanding the use of these actors may increase the degree of violence used during pirate attacks, pose threats to the safety of innocent civilians, and violate a number of domestic and international laws.     

African nations as proxies in covert cyber operations

The growth of the African Internet, and services related to the Internet, has been rapid over the last decade. Following this market expansion, a variety of service providers have started to provide access. A fast-growing market puts pressure on the providers to deliver services first and only then seek to secure the networks. Over time, industrialised nations have become more able to detect and trace cyber attacks against their networks. These tracking features are constantly developing and the precision in determining the origin of an attack is increasing. A state-sponsored cyber attacker, such as intelligence agencies and electronic warfare units, will seek to avoid detection, especially when the attacks are politically sensitive intelligence-gathering and intrusion forays into foreign states' networks. One way for the attacker to create a path that links the attacks and the originating country is by actions through a proxy. The less technologically mature developing nations offer an opportunity for cyber aggression due to their lower level of security under the quick expansion of the Internet-based market. Developing countries could be used as proxies, without their knowledge and consent, through the unauthorised usage of these countries' information systems in an attempt to attack a third country by a state-sponsored offensive cyber operation. If the purpose of the cyber attack is to destabilise a targeted society and the attack succeeds, the used proxies are likely to face consequences in their relations with foreign countries, even if the proxy was unaware of the covert activity.     

基于强化学习的鱼群自组织行为模拟

自组织行为广泛存在于自然界中。为了通过学习的方式模拟鱼群自组织行为,构建了鱼群模拟环境模型、智能体模型和奖励机制,并提出了一种基于赫布迹和行动者-评价者框架的多智能体强化学习方法。该方法利用赫布迹加强游动策略的学习记忆能力,基于同构思想实现了多智能体的分布式学习。仿真结果表明,该方法能够适用于领航跟随、自主漫游、群体导航等场景中鱼群自组织行为学习,并且基于学习方法模拟的鱼群展现的行为特性与基于博德规则计算模拟的鱼群行为类似。     

一种无线传感器网络中的Sybil攻击检测方案

Sybil攻击破坏无线传感器网络中的数据融合、公平资源分配等机制，因此对Sybil攻击的防范与检测具有很重要的意义。将一种基于到达时间差（TDOA）的三维定位引入到Sybil攻击的检测中，算法可以检测存在的Sybil攻击并对Sybil节点进行定位。通过性能分析证明该算法具有开销小、有效性高的特点。     

Survival and effectiveness of a weapon system against a superior force (guerrilla warfare)

Stochastic models are developed for a weapon system which attacks at a certain rate, but withdraws when attacked (guerrilla warfare). The models yield as output the distributions and mean values in closed form of the survival period and number of attacks made. As input are, for the weapon system, attack rate or amount of ammunition and time horizon, and, for the opponent, kill rate and probability of killing the weapon system, given the opponent has been attacked (strike back performance of the opponent). One model allows, however, for strike back also by the weapon system, when attacked by the opponent. This model is then used to determine, when the weapon system should strike back. The models are based on the Poisson and the binomial processes. Consistency among the models is shown and an example is provided.     

SUICIDE TERRORISM AND THE BACKLASH EFFECT

This paper presents a game‐theoretic model of suicide terrorism containing three agents: the terrorist leader; a targeted government; and potential terrorist supporters. Supporters join the terrorist group if they gain more from their participation than from their economic opportunities. Preemptive measures by the government can result in a backlash that encourages recruitment through new grievances. Suicide attacks can also lead to recruitment. Increases in preemption costs and/or economic opportunities can reduce the overall level of terrorism, while increasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks. An increase in the effect of preemption on recruitment, or the propaganda effect of suicide bombings has the opposite effect of increasing normal and suicide attacks, but decreasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks in the terrorist organization’s strategy profile.     

基于规则的域间路由系统异常检测

随着Internet的爆炸性增长,域间路由系统变得越来越复杂并难以控制,许多与域间路由安全相关的事件广泛引起了人们的关注。提出一个基于规则的域间路由监测框架,其中的规则可分为常规异常检测规则和特殊异常检测规则,它们能有效用于检测异常路由和可能的攻击行为,这两种规则的不同在于特殊异常检测规则是由大量路由得到的Internet模型来定义。研究了Internet层次模型与ISP商业关系模型的构造,基于这个框架实现了一个原型系统———ISP-Health,最后给出了检测能力结果。     

How to Fight Terrorism: Alternatives to Deterrence

Deterrence has been a crucial element in fighting terrorism, both in actual politics and rational choice analyses of terrorism. But there are superior strategies to deterrence. One is to make terrorist attacks less attractive. Another to raise the opportunity cost - rather than the material cost - to terrorists. These alternative strategies effectively dissuade potential terrorists. The strategies suggested here build on the "benevolence" system and tend to produce a positive sum game among the interacting parties. In contrast, the deterrence system is based on "threats" and tends to produce a negative sum game interaction.     

八轮MISTY1算法的相关密钥扩大飞来去器攻击

密钥扩展算法对分组密码的安全至关重要,目前各种攻击方法越来越关注密钥带来的影响.通过分析非线性函数FI和密钥扩展算法,并观察轮子密钥的排列方式,寻找到MISTY1算法一个包含290个弱密钥的、可应用于相关密钥扩大飞来去器攻击的弱密钥类.在弱密钥类的基础上,寻找到两条相互独立的相关密钥差分路径,从而构造了一个七轮MISTY1算法的相关密钥扩大飞来去器区分器,进而实现了对八轮MISTY1算法(不带最后FL层)的相关密钥扩大飞来去器攻击.攻击需要263个选择明文,攻击的计算复杂度是270.该攻击是第一个对不带最后FL层MISTY1算法的八轮攻击,且与同类攻击方法相比,攻击算法放宽了所需要的相关密钥的限制条件.     

PARLIAMENT AND DEFENCE OVERSIGHT

Abstract

A tremendous amount of important work has been done recently on operationalising the protection of civilians as a military task. The bulk of the discussion has focused on how militaries should respond to direct attacks on civilians. This is an important issue, but thinking about civilian protection should also include a serious examination of the ways in which the approach of military organisations to the problem of ‘spoiler’ groups can affect the level and dynamics of attacks on civilians – importantly, where armed groups are interested in violent control of civilian populations, attempts to ‘dislodge’ them from areas of control may substantially increase the level of violence against civilians (beyond the dangers to be expected from being near areas where active fighting is taking place). In 2009, the United Nations mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC) supported the Congolese military in operations to dismantle the Hutu-dominated FDLR (Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda, Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda) militia group, at massive human cost. Critics have primarily focused on MONUC's failure to protect civilians from direct attack, consonant with the general discourse on tactics for civilian protection. These criticisms are valid, but in this paper I argue that two crucial additional considerations should be kept in mind: the way that military operations can affect violence against civilians, and the way that moralising the approach to armed groups, even those which have committed serious abuses, can limit military and political options – potentially in ways that increase civilian risk in the name of protecting them.     

From control to parasitism

This article sets out to investigate the current paradoxical roles of border control agencies in order to contribute to the theoretical debate on border porosity and related security issues in West Africa. The colonial demarcation of African borders accounts for their porous nature initially, as borderland populations challenged the unjust scission of their cultural, economic, geographical and geopolitical spaces. However, new forms of porosity also evolved over time, masterminded by new actors. Drawing on the Ghana–Togo border case, and through interviews, observation and documentary analysis, this article argues that border control agencies are partly responsible for the current border porosity and attendant security problems as their jurisdiction has shifted to a multi-layered border parasitism. The article is not, however, an attack on border law enforcement agencies; rather it attempts to explore their roles in shielding the region, already exposed to terrorism and piracy, from further security threats.