Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.     

THE USE OF REGIONAL DIAMOND TRADING PLATFORMS TO ACCESS CONFLICT ZONES

Rough diamonds are one of the easiest minerals to extract from a war zone. Their high value to weight ratio means that a significant investment can be suitably concealed to evade detection. This attribute generally makes researchers assume that diamond smuggling from war zones to international trading centers is impossible to control—that the illicit diamond trade is like a river, which when confronted with an obstacle, will always find an alternative channel. This is true for the multitudes of African middlemen who smuggle varying amounts of diamonds across porous borders. International dealers who purchase diamonds from war zones are, however, much more constrained in their business and must rely on a limited number of routes to access rebel territory. These dealers almost always use operating platforms in a reasonable geographical proximity to the war zone to facilitate access to rebel groups, transfer cash to diamond buying operations, physically remove diamonds from the buying zone and organise their onward transfer to the legal international market. The multitude of networks that could deal with one particular rebel group and their infinite number of international hideouts is constricted to a bottleneck in these regional diamond trading platforms, without which access to rebel groups is either impossible or becomes a highly costly affair. This paper will consider the principle regional mechanisms by which diamond dealers organise, finance, orchestrate and conceal their business dealings with African rebel groups. Conflict diamond dealers interviewed by the author expressed economic rather than political motivation for their business activities, and in this context this paper will analyse why they have chosen regional operating platforms that conform to regional political alliances.     

BORDER CONTROL AND REGIONALISM

The control over shared borders has become increasingly important as a result of the international trend towards the establishment of free trade areas. While opening up for trade, most of the free trade groupings have concomitantly relinquished border control restrictions for the crossborder movement of their own citizens across internal borders, and have tightened controls at external borders. Border controls must not be seen as preventing the crossborder movement of people and goods, but rather as assistance in regulating orderly legal movement. The free movement of goods and people is essential, for example, if SADC wishes to move towards a free trade area, and to grow and prosper. This article will use recent developments in South Africa to demonstrate the challenges facing the country in implementing effective border control. By implication, it also illustrates the challenges facing SADC in implementing its Protocol on Trade and the region's free trade area launched in 2000. The total liberalisation of the SADC market is expected by 2012. In this process, free trade must be effectively reconciled with appropriate border control.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SECURITY POLICIES

This paper analyses public policy choices in the security economy from an economic perspective. It discusses the role of public goods for national and global security and identifies the importance of the first‐ and second‐order indirect effects of insecurity on economic activity, which include the behavioural responses of agents and the government to security measures, akin to such effects in insurance economics. Furthermore, key public policy trade‐offs are outlined, in particular between security and efficiency, globalisation, equity and freedom. The analysis identifies suitable policy options for raising security in the national and international contexts and in view of these trade‐offs. A balance between market and non‐market instruments in achieving security should be aimed for in order to minimise the adverse effects of aiming for higher security. In addition, the public good nature of security implies that international coordination of security policies is important, despite this process being fraught with enforcement problems.     

The perils of special approaches to counterterrorism: the shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes in 2005

The death of Jean Charles de Menezes on the London Underground in 2005 remains a horrifying example of what happens when counterterrorism goes wrong. One of the extraordinary features of the shooting was the remarkable number of special elements, police units, military Special Forces, and unusual procedures and tactics involved in the incident. This article attempts to assess the causal significance of the special dimension in the horrific chain of circumstances. It does so by interrogating numerous explanations for the tragedy and highlighting the role of the special factor. The Stockwell shooting remains very important today because it casts a sharp and somewhat harsh spotlight on the particular pitfalls of special responses, measures and units to the multitudinous threats posed by international terrorism in the twenty-first century.     

Saudi Arabia's defence offset programmes: Progress,policy and performance

This paper discusses the performance of Saudi Arabia's defence offset programmes. The Kingdom is involved in some of the World's biggest defence offset agreements and a review of the problems it has faced and the policies it has introduced provides a useful insight into that part of the international defence market where trade and development meet.

The paper reviews the origins and development of Saudi Arabia's major defence offset programmes. Saudi policies towards defence offsets are outlined before assessing the practical impact of the programmes themselves. The author concludes that Saudi Arabia's offset projects have had only a minor impact on the Kingdom's economy to date and makes a number of policy recommendations which are designed to enhance the utility of the programmes in the Kingdom's drive to enhance and diversify the technological base of its economy.     

关于战时要人警卫的理性思考

随着国际政治、经济、军事的飞速发展，战时要人警卫安全已成为各国警卫部门研究和探讨的一个重要课题。根据战时要人警卫工作的特点和构成要素分析，战时要人警卫必须建立战时警卫联勤机制，强化战时警卫装备保障，锻造平战结合的警卫队伍，创新符合警卫实战要求的战法，以适应战时警卫工作需要。     

运用对抗演练法评估边防战术训练初探

战术对抗演练是战术训练的重要方法，已在边防部队实战技能训练中得到广泛运用。侧重挖掘的是战术对抗演练在边防战术训练中的另一个重要作用，即评估战术训练水平的作用，着重从对抗演练法评估边防战术训练的必要性、运用的基本思路及应注意的问题三个方面进行论述。     

AID,GLENEAGLES AND THE RUN-UP TO THE MILLENNIUM +5 SUMMIT

Africa has emerged as a strategic location for transcontinental narcotics trade. Particularly the West African subcontinent has turned into a cocaine warehousing and trans-shipment hub along the way to the European underground markets. At this juncture, African drug networks (ADNs) began to play a momentous role in global drug trade, and pose a considerable threat to international security, as they operate in more than 80 countries. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Interpol, and Europol perceive ADNs as one of the primary issues in international counter-narcotics policy. These agencies have launched several multilateral initiatives to contain the West African threat. None of these initiatives, however, retarded the expansion of the problem. Indeed, the containment efforts turned out to be quite embryonic. The ADNs eventually entered the Turkish market by the early 2000s. West African drug networks (WADNs) in particular have begun to operate within Turkey extensively, often supplying and distributing drugs. The gravity of the threat became ever more serious by 2012. The upsurge of the new threat has compelled the Turkish drug-law enforcement agencies to adopt new policies and counter-strategies. These policies have to be based upon proper strategic analysis of the threat. This paper seeks to address the need for a threat assessment of ADNs. It investigates the dimensions of the problem, profiles the members of WADNs, their modes of operation, and the factors that compelled them to exploit the illicit Turkish drug markets. The analyses are based upon the scrutiny of 227 narcotic interdictions files and statements from the African individuals in these case files. The paper concludes by presenting policy implications and recommendations for the Turkish security and foreign-policy institutions to cope with this impending threat.     

Trade,conflict and alliances

This study examines the relationship between alliance conflict and international trade. Two schools of thought exist on this issue: some prominent writers suggest that alliance conflict reduces trade between two countries (the externality cost argument), while others suggest that it increases trade between certain countries at the cost of others (the alignment incentive argument). The study empirically tests the two propositions by analyzing the data on trade and conflict during the post‐WWII period. It is found that the relationship between trade and alliance conflict is statistically significant. The externality cost phenomenon occurs to allies, whereas the alignment incentive argument is true of neutrals. In addition, the findings of this study support the fundamental assumptions and major results in the studies of trade and conflict at the dyadic level.     

船舶火灾特性及其预防对策

随着国际贸易不断增多,作为运输重要手段的航运业也呈现迅猛发展态势,与此同时各类船舶火灾事故的数量和财产损失也在不断攀升。这些火灾主要呈现出火灾荷载量较大,蔓延速度快,电气线路复杂,线路铺设混乱,散热、排烟困难,监管盲区较多,人员消防安全意识淡薄等特性。要有效防控船舶火灾,需要加强船员消防安全培训和船舶消防设施的建设,强化船舶消防安全监管和建立＂人、物、机＂一体的火灾监控体系。     

混合排队规则的战术装备维修保障系统分析

首先将战术装备维修保障过程描述为M/M/c/k混合规则的排队过程,其损坏装备到达服从相互独立的泊松分布,维修时间服从相互独立的指数分布。同时考虑系统的到达率和维修率随系统中装备数量的变化,重要战损装备等待维修时的不耐烦性以及重要装备对一般装备的强占性优先权情况,结合战术装备维修保障系统的结构和规模,建立战术装备维修保障M/M/3/12排队模型。列出模型的平衡方程,采用矩阵的分析方法得到重要装备和一般装备的稳态分布表达式,并以队长为指标进行了系统性能的计算。     

新疆高校发展留学生教育的SWOT分析

随着经济贸易的全球化,高等教育国际化已经成为当代高等教育发展的必然趋势。留学生教育已经成为衡量高等教育发展状况的重要指标。本文用SWOT分析法剖析新疆高校发展留学生教育所具有的优势、劣势以及面临的机遇和威胁,为新疆高校制定适合本地留学生教育的未来发展战略提供依据,以推动新疆高校留学生教育的快速发展。     

伊拉克战争对中东地区乃至世界军品贸易的影响

在分析了伊拉克战争对中东地区军品贸易影响的基础上,重点分析了其对世界军品贸易的深刻影响———加剧军备竞赛、刺激军工技术发展、引起军贸格局及产品结构发生变化、国际军控形势更加严峻。     

Strategic intelligence during coin detention operations – relational data and understanding latent terror networks

One aspect of the global “War on Terror” that has received limited coverage in the academic literature is the problem of detained persons as it relates to intelligence. This is a surprising oversight, given the number of detainees that the USA has been responsible for (over 25,000 were in custody in Iraq alone at one time during its peak). The detention environment offers a prime strategic intelligence opportunity for the US intelligence community to study the tactics and organizations of individuals who have been removed from the overall conflict. In this article an easily implemented collection program is recommended to be deployed in US/coalition detention centers. The primary recommendation is to gather relational data on detainee communication, both authorized and illicit, and to use these data to perform network analyses of terrorist groups and their individual members.     

Strategic differences: Al Qaeda's Split with the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham

As part of the next phase of the Global Jihad, al Qaeda has been committed to winning popular support among Muslims. Ayman al-Zawahiri and the al Qaeda inner circle recognise that a global terror movement and civil conflicts in the Middle East, brought about by the Arab revolutions, necessitate different operational methods. As such, they have disavowed the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham for their insubordination and unconstrained tactics, a move that has implications for the Middle East, international relations, the legitimacy of the al Qaeda leadership, and the future of the Global Jihad.     

分布式数据库系统的查询优化策略研究

在分析比较分布式数据库系统和集中式数据库系统查询优化目标不同特点的基础上,归纳出分布式数据库系统的查询优化目标,进而提出查询优化的策略,并在举例中重点讨论了操作执行顺序的不同对查询性能的影响。     

Privatizing the struggle against Somali piracy

Pirate attacks against commercial vessels in the Western Indian Ocean and nearby seas reached an unprecedented level in 2011. Despite concerted efforts by the international community and shipping companies to address this threat by conducting naval patrols and equipping commercial vessels with non-lethal defenses, the frequency of pirate attacks continues to increase. The general ineffectiveness of existing anti-piracy measures has sparked interest in expanding the use of armed private security contractors to protect commercial vessels from pirate attacks. This article argues that armed private security contractors can, indeed, enhance the security of commercial vessels because these actors can provide onsite protection for commercial vessels, which should allow them to respond very quickly to pirate attacks, and because these actors are willing to use deadly force against pirates. However, this article also argues that expanding the use of these actors may increase the degree of violence used during pirate attacks, pose threats to the safety of innocent civilians, and violate a number of domestic and international laws.     

A model of the international arms market∗

Sales of arms are a significant component of international trade and raise a range of pressing policy issues. After a short review of the market, this paper provides a formal model of the trade which allows for competing forward‐looking suppliers whose welfare depends on both the economic benefits from the sales and the security repercussions of recipient behaviour. The recipient's behaviour depends on its military capability, a function of the stock of arms it has acquired. We first examine a myopic recipient, whose behaviour depends on current stocks, then a forward looking recipient for whom questions of the time‐consistency and the credibility of supplier threats to embargo or promises to resupply become crucial. Finally we examine the impact of supplier cooperation of the sort currently being discussed in the UN Security Council.     

UK firms’ experience and perceptions of defence offsets: Survey results 1

Offsets are a growing feature of international trade in defence equipment. This article assesses the economics of offsets and outlines UK offsets policy. There is a lack of empirical work in the field and the article presents the results of a survey of UK firms’ experience of their involvement in offsets against UK imports of defence equipment. There is also a case study of the AWACS offset programme and an evaluation of policy implications.