基于BP神经化贝叶斯网络的空袭目标毁伤效果评估

针对空袭目标毁伤因素的复杂多样性,以及贝叶斯网络在评估时对先验知识获取和对网络节点限制方面存在的不足,提出一种BP神经化贝叶斯网络的评估方法,解决空袭目标的毁伤问题。分析了空袭目标毁伤的影响因素,并进行了知识表示;分析了贝叶斯网络结构处理多个父节点问题时存在的几个缺陷,建立了空袭目标毁伤评估的BP神经化网络结构,给出了"BP神经化模块"的决策方法。通过实例分析,结合Netica仿真,验证了该评估方法的准确性,操作简单、有效性好。     

基于完全博弈的Ad hoc网络风险评估

利用博弈论原理,从Ad hoc网络节点资产、攻击的检测率和误检率等方面对攻防双方不同策略进行综合量化,建立了攻防博弈下的Ad hoc网络风险评估模型。给出了纳什均衡求解算法和网络风险评估算法,通过求解攻防双方最优策略组合,得到攻防平衡状态下的网络风险评估值。通过仿真实验,证明网络风险值与攻击检测率、误检率和节点资产之间的关系符合实际情况,且评估算法操作简单,较其他评估模型更加客观准确,对提升Ad hoc网络安全具有一定参考价值。     

节点重要度的网络抗毁性评估方法

为准确评估网络抗毁性,提出了一种改进的节点删除法来评估网络节点重要度,以节点删除对网络拓扑造成的边数和全网效率下降程度为节点重要度衡量指标。综合考虑了节点的连接度以及节点在网络拓扑中的位置,克服了以往节点删除法不适用于网络被分割情况的不足。最后,在节点重要度评估的基础上建立了网络抗毁性测度指标。实验分析验证了该方法的有效性。     

基于谱测度的地域通信网节点重要性评估

针对已有测度无法准确评价网络抗毁度和节点重要性的问题,提出了一种基于网络邻接矩阵谱特征的抗毁测度。抗毁测度的值越大,网络中替代路径就越多,网络的抗毁能力越强。在此基础上,给出了一种节点重要性评估方法,如果节点失效后网络抗毁测度下降越多,则该节点在网络中的重要性越大。     

给定任务和模式下指挥体系节点重要性评估方法

针对一般节点重要度评估方法没有考虑指挥体系网络与外界的交互以及自身运行机制的问题,研究了指挥节点的重要度评估方法,在一般网络结构重要度分析基础上,综合作战任务和指挥模式对节点的需求,提出了作战任务对节点依赖度以及指挥模式对节点依赖度的计算方法,最后设计了评估算法并给出具体算法流程,案例分析结果证明该算法合理、有效。     

Evaluating Nodes Importance in Regional Communication Network Based on Spectral Measure

针对已有测度无法准确评价网络抗毁度和节点重要性的问题,提出了一种基于网络邻接矩阵谱特征的抗毁测度.抗毁测度的值越大,网络中替代路径就越多,网络的抗毁能力越强.在此基础上,给出了一种节点重要性评估方法,如果节点失效后网络抗毁测度下降越多,则该节点在网络中的重要性越大.     

基于加权网络模型的指挥节点重要度评估方法

指挥节点重要度评估是研究指挥网络可靠性和抗毁性的重要内容。通过定义加权网络节点重要度贡献矩阵,提出了一种利用节点重要度评价矩阵确定加权网络关键节点的相对重要度的方法,该方法能充分考虑节点的位置信息、邻接节点的重要度贡献关系;结合作战任务对社区的依赖度,设计了节点全局重要度评估算法,并利用该算法对典型网络节点重要度进行了分析,结果表明算法有效、可行。     

动态模糊Petri网下的Ad hoc风险评估

Ad hoc网络具有无中心、无基础设施等特点,其安全面临严峻挑战。对Ad hoc网络安全进行评估,可为其安全性能提升与走向实际应用提供参考。对Ad hoc网络安全进行分析,提出了基于模糊Petri网的评估模型。通过引入变迁阈值和变迁支持度的策略,可自动灵活调整指标权重与指标体系结构,提高评估模型的准确度、灵敏度和适应性;充分利用Petri网和矩阵并行运算特点,给出了模糊规则的推理算法,提高了计算速度。     

针对侵爆弹的毁伤效能评估方法

基于侵爆弹毁伤特征,提出针对侵爆弹的毁伤效能评估通用方法,建立了评估模型和计算流程,并以侵爆弹打击机库为例,整合并提出了相关算法,开发了软件工具,进行了毁伤效能评估案例分析。案例分析中,研究对比了侵彻速度、入射角度、目标尺寸、投射精度等因素的影响,表明了弹体威力参数以及目标参数与毁伤结果间的关系。提出的方法较为明确地给出了毁伤效能评估的内涵定义、评估内容、评估技术要点,对于侵爆弹打击其他坚固目标的毁伤效能评估具有较强的指导意义和参考价值。     

基于复杂网络的卫星重要度评估

利用复杂网络对卫星重要度评估展开研究。将卫星抽象成复杂网络中的节点,分析了该网络拓扑结构的动态特征;基于卫星的运动学模型及可视性判定模型,给出了网络拓扑结构的确定方法;分析了网络节点、节点连接边及相邻节点的计算指标,在此基础上建立了基于灰色关联度(GRD)的节点重要度评估模型。仿真结果表明,文中模型可以有效评估卫星的重要程度,为作战决策人员提供理论支撑和技术支持。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.