自动武器可靠性寿命分布规律研究

本文对两种具有代表性的自动武器收集其生产验收寿命试验的故障记录,经处理得出寿命子样,再用皮尔逊检验进行分布函数检验,从中发现自动武器寿命分布服从指数分布,为研究自动武器可靠性指标及其验收方法提供了理论依据。     

逐步增加Ⅱ型截尾样本下k/N(G)系统可靠性指标的置信区间

在逐步增加Ⅰ型截尾样本下,研究k/N(G)系统可靠性指标的区间估计问题。假设部件寿命服从指数分布,利用极大似然法和Bayes方法,首先给出了部件失效率的Bayes近似置信区间,其次推导出了系统可靠度和平均寿命的Bayes近似置信区间的计算公式。最后给出随机模拟例子,并对置信区间的精度进行了讨论。     

存在工作历程产品的加速寿命试验统计分析

加速寿命试验(ALT)可在较短时间内获得产品的寿命及可靠性信息.利用ALT对产品的剩余寿命进行评估时,常常将已工作过的产品进行抽样并投入试验,在这一类样本的ALT数据统计分析时如何处理初始工作时间,成为ALT应用中的一个重要问题.工程实际中评估此类样本的剩余寿命时常常忽略初始工作时间,将其视为"用后如新"或"无记忆性"产品.但此假设必须以产品寿命服从指数分布为前提,而大部分机电产品的寿命服从Weibull分布,因而该方法在应用时必然会产生较大误差.针对这一问题提出了一种新的基于时间折算的ALT数据统计分析方法,并利用Monte Carlo仿真对其估计特性进行对比研究,结果表明此方法能有效评估存在初始工作历程产品的剩余寿命,估计精度优于原方法.     

基于IC质量等级提高电子元器件可靠性的方法

随着科技的发展,电子元器件在航空、航天领域的应用越来越广泛。近期,特别是当前国家重点型号的研制过程中,大量使用新型、新研电子元器件,已经成为装备的一个组成部分,电子元器件的质量已经与装备的安危密切相关并引起了各方人士的重视。一个电气系统就是由各种基础产品(各种元器件)构成的。由于电子元器件的数量、品种众多,其性能、可靠性、费用等参数对整个系统性能、可靠性、寿命周期费用等技术指标的影响极大。例如:某型导弹的惯导系统在进行振动试验的过程中,陀螺电源信号发生器的波形出现抖动,针对这一故障,研制单位进行了一系列的试…     

基于维纳过程金属化膜电容器的剩余寿命预测

金属化膜电容器是惯性约束聚变激光装置能源系统最重要的元器件,对个体电容器的剩余寿命进行有效的预测对整个装置的可靠性水平有着重要的影响.为有效地预测个体电容器的剩余寿命,提出了融合单个电容器性能退化数据与先验性能退化数据信息的预测方法.采用Wiener过程对其性能退化过程进行建模,并根据先验退化数据信息构造参数的先验分布...     

基于指数分布假设的直接序列扩频系统抗窄带干扰技术研究

在扩频信号加信道噪声近似服从高斯分布条件下,利用均匀DFT滤波器组性质,得到变换域谱线幅度平方服从指数分布的结论。通过假设检验方法,可对直接序列扩频系统接收信号中的窄带干扰进行检测和抑制。理论分析和数值仿真结果表明,算法能有效抑制常见的单音、多音干扰以及窄带高斯干扰。     

屏蔽数据下三部件串联系统部件可靠性的Bayes估计

在系统失效原因被屏蔽的情形下,讨论三部件串联系统中部件可靠性指标的Bayes估计问题.当部件寿命服从指数分布时,分别在平方损失和LINEX损失下得到了部件未知参数、可靠度函数和失效率函数的Bayes估计.最后通过数值模拟对估计结果进行了分析.     

寿命型产品定数截尾可靠性鉴定试验方案研究

相对于定时截尾可靠性鉴定试验方案来说,寿命型产品定数截尾试验方案方面的研究较少。首先从理论上证明了,寿命服从指数分布的产品,无论对定数截尾试验中的故障产品是否用新产品替换,其鉴定试验方案的设计公式完全相同。之后推导出了同时能满足检验上限、检验下限、生产方风险、使用方风险要求的定数截尾鉴定试验方案设计公式,并用GB5080.7中的数据验证了公式的正确性。给出了指数寿命型产品定数截尾试验中的接收概率公式,并推论出了同一产品在不同试验方案的鉴定结果可能完全相反。最后建议,应在鉴定试验前尽可能知晓产品的可靠性水平,从而可有目的地选择或设计试验方案,以求产品高概率通过鉴定试验。     

电子设备备件储备标准制定模型研究

电子设备的寿命一般服从指数分布。本文以指数分布的备件储备标准制定模型为研究对象，分析了模型中各参数变量的相互影响关系，总结了该模型的特点，并应用于备件的标准制定工作中，有助于实际工作的开展。     

指数寿命可靠性增长评估中增长因子的确定方法

对于延缓纠正模式的可靠性增长试验,阶段内产品的寿命服从失效率为常数的指数分布,而阶段间的可靠性有阶跃增长,通常考虑以增长因子进行阶段间的信息传递,增长因子的确定成为关键.首先分析常用的ML-Ⅱ确定方法的局限性,提出改进的ML-Ⅱ方法,并对阶段末的可靠性作出Bayes评估.最后仿真示例表明了改进方法的有效性.     

验前分布的稳健性

研究Bayes统计分析中运用验前信息的稳健性 ,给出了正态分布期望值验前分布和指数寿命型分布失效率验前分布的稳健性分析。所论方法对于飞行器系统试验的精度分析和可靠性评估 ,具有较普遍的意义     

BP神经网络在电子设备可靠性验证中的应用

讨论了借助MATLAB的BP神经网络解决电子设备在寿命分布未知和小样本试验数据时的可靠性评估方法, 并给出了一个应用实例, 该方法可以提高可靠性评估置信度, 并能节省试验时间和费用, 特别适用于大型复杂电子设备。     

A class of distributions generated from distributions of exponential type

A class of exponential type distributions with special exponential parameters is defined. It is assumed that the exponential parameters vary according to some (known) probability law. It has been shown in this paper that the compound distribution can be easily represented in form involving moment generating function of the mixing distribution. The results obtained in this paper provide an efficient and simple method of obtaining compound failure time distribution with known mixing distributions (uniform, exponential, gamma).     

Determination of burn‐in parameters and residual life for highly reliable products

Today, many products are designed and manufactured to function for a long period of time before they fail. Determining product reliability is a great challenge to manufacturers of highly reliable products with only a relatively short period of time available for internal life testing. In particular, it may be difficult to determine optimal burn‐in parameters and characterize the residual life distribution. A promising alternative is to use data on a quality characteristic (QC) whose degradation over time can be related to product failure. Typically, product failure corresponds to the first passage time of the degradation path beyond a critical value. If degradation paths can be modeled properly, one can predict failure time and determine the life distribution without actually observing failures. In this paper, we first use a Wiener process to describe the continuous degradation path of the quality characteristic of the product. A Wiener process allows nonconstant variance and nonzero correlation among data collected at different time points. We propose a decision rule for classifying a unit as normal or weak, and give an economic model for determining the optimal termination time and other parameters of a burn‐in test. Next, we propose a method for assessing the product's lifetime distribution of the passed units. The proposed methodologies are all based only on the product's initial observed degradation data. Finally, an example of an electronic product, namely contact image scanner (CIS), is used to illustrate the proposed procedure. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

A probability model for initial crack size and fatigue life of gun barrels

With constant firing, metal fatigue produces cracks in a gun barrel. The useful life of the barrel comes to an end when a crack develops to a critical size. The theory of Fracture Mechanics suggests a formula for crack size growth rate. This formula can be used to determine the life of a barrel, depending on the initial and critical crack sizes and other factors. The initial crack size turns out to be a dominant factor. Unfortunately, accurate measurements are not generally available on the initial crack size. In this paper, we propose a simple probability model for the initial crack size and this, in turn, leads to a probability distribution of the life of the barrel. This last distribution is the well-known exponential distribution with a location shift. The simplicity of this final result is one of the factors that make the model appealing.     

An asymptotically optimal inspection policy

An inspection model in life testing situations is discussed. The system under study is assumed to consist on n independent components all of which fail independently in an exponential fashion. Failures can be discovered only through inspection. The experimenter is assumed to lack the knowledge of the parameter of the exponential distribution. A stochastic sequential inspection policy is suggested which uses the data collected through experimentation to estimate the unknown parameter. It is shown that this policy is asymptotically optimal. Some numerical demonstrations are included.     

两个单周期的备件存储模型

在工作寿命和修理时间之一服从一般的连续型分布,另一个服从指数分布的情形下讨论了单周期的备件存储问题,通过适当地划分系统的状态,利用Markov更新过程的理论进行了分析,建立了概率型模型,并由模型得到了最佳备件数的求法。     

基于贝叶斯模型的装备剩余寿命预测研究

为了解决武器装备日益复杂及维修工作日趋繁重的问题,运用贝叶斯模型预测装备修理后的剩余寿命,为合理安排其修理计划提供依据。替代传统的指数分布,用威布尔分布描述系统寿命特征,并运用极大似然方法和贝叶斯方法估计威布尔分布的两个未知参数,给出其置信区间。在此基础上,对先验样本和后验样本两种不同情况,分别运用贝叶斯模型预测装备修理后的剩余寿命,并给出实例。结果表明了该方法的有效性。     

M/M/1 queues with interdependent arrival and service processes

We study via simulation an M/M/1 queueing system with the assumption that a customer's service time and the interarrival interval separating his arrival from that of his predecessor are correlated random variables having a bivariate exponential distribution. We show that positive correlation reduces the mean and variance of the total waiting time and that negative correlation has the opposite effect. By using spectral analysis and a nonparametric test applied to the sample power spectra associated with certain simulated waiting times we show the effect to be statistically significant.     

Designing acceptance sampling schemes for life testing with mixed censoring

Mixed censoring is useful extension of Type I and Type II censoring and combines some advantages of both types of censoring. This paper proposes a general Bayesian framework for designing a variable acceptance sampling scheme with mixed censoring. A general loss function which includes the sampling cost, the time‐consuming cost, the salvage value, and the decision loss is employed to determine the Bayes risk and the corresponding optimal sampling plan. An explicit expression of the Bayes risk is derived. The new model can easily be adapted to create life testing models for different distributions. Specifically, two commonly used distributions including the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution are considered with a special decision loss function. We demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to models with Type I or Type II censoring. Numerical examples are reported to illustrate the effectiveness of the method proposed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004