人工智能非单调推理系统的研究

传统的逻辑推理是有局限性的,而非单调推理则具有普遍的意义。非单调推理的TMS存在着许多问题,如:没有处理模糊信息的能力、单状态、热衷于避免矛盾以及效率低等等。这些问题在非单调推理系统FATMS里能得到很好的解决。     

专家系统中引入非单调推理的算法描述

专家系统中常用不精确推理,它们是单调的,单调的推理是有局限性的,而非单调推理则具有普遍的意义。在对不精确推理中的模糊推理、非单调推理分析和研究的基础上,提出了模糊推理和非单调推理有效结合的方法。首先研究了模糊推理与非单调推理的结合,引入模糊数学中贴近度的概念,解决了模糊命题的不相容性。其次提出了一个新的概念——假设正确度,解决了面向从属关系回溯中选择错误效率低的问题。最后给出了模糊非单调推理系统与专家系统一起工作的算法描述。     

模糊非单调推理系统的实现方法

本文首先分析了非单调推理系统的两个主要过程——正确性维持过程和面向从属关系的回溯过程,讨论了模糊非单调推理系统的独特性,然后对模糊非单调推理系统的实现方法进行了探讨,并给出了模糊非单调推理系统与问题求解程序一起工作的计算机程序。     

模糊数学在武警军事决策中的应用

随着计算机科学的发展和人类研究的对象越来越广泛和复杂,人们发现传统的精确方法很难描述复杂系统和人文系统,很难解决以人为主导的军事决策问题。指挥员的决策过程往往不是依据精确的数字,而是依据兵力强弱等模糊概念,继而用这些模糊概念及信息进行模糊推理。模糊数学的应用,可以建立计算机辅助分析系统和军事决策信息库,为武警部队的辅助决策、作战方案、作战效能评估和战场情况预测提供了便捷可行的解决方法。     

弹药保障信息自动识别系统研究

阐述了在弹药管理中应用自动识别技术的必要性和可行性。通过周密的需求分析及论证 ,确定了弹药保障信息条码自动识别系统的总体方案。介绍了二维条码生成系统和应用系统的开发设计过程。经试用后 ,得出该系统可有效解决弹药供应、管理中手工录入登记易出错、效率低的弊端 ,从而实现弹药信息自动识别录入和准确监控。     

模糊规则集在发动机故障诊断中的应用

基于模糊规则集度量,提出了一种故障诊断系统。提取模糊规则分两步实现：（1）由训练样本自适应形成超球子空间,可望解决高维空间的识别问题：（2）计算每个子空间上模糊规则的信任度。对模糊规则的概念进行了拓展,以便解决模糊规则之间的矛盾。仿真研究表明：模糊规则集度量可以用于液体火箭发动机的故障诊断。     

心理战视频信息产品开发系统研究

信息在心理攻击中具有巨大的作用,视频信息在心理战中具有很大优势。对视频心理战的概念、进攻方式进行研究,从提高心理战的作战效果和效率出发,提出了构建心理战视频信息产品开发系统的设想,对系统流程、辅助模块、关键视频处理技术、要注意的问题等进行了讨论。     

基于模糊数的防空C3I系统效能评估

根据模糊数适于量化模糊信息的特点,运用模糊集理论,提出了一种基于模糊数的模糊综合评估方法.通过计算被评估系统效能的模糊数,将问题转化为模糊数的排序问题,并给出了采用该方法对防空C3I系统效能评估的模型及实现步骤.该方法能对防空C3I系统的效能指标进行合理的量化处理,较好地解决了防空C3I系统效能评估问题,通过计算实例验证了该方法的正确性和实用性.     

模糊理论在多传感器信息融合中的应用

利用模糊控制理论能较好解决不确定性问题的特点,将测量信息融合问题融入模糊控制问题中来提高多传感器系统的测量质量;提出模糊融合模型,并介绍了将传感器信息作为模糊控制输入的模糊化问题,以及相应的模糊规则的建立、模糊推理和清晰化处理;提出以相交论域中心作为多传感器的事实来进行兼容度和激励强度的解算;最后进行相应的仿真说明及分析.     

模糊Petri网在故障诊断知识表示和推理中的应用

针对传统的模糊产生式规则知识表示复杂、推理效率低、单一阈值设定不能满足复杂故障诊断需求的问题,给出了模糊产生式规则转换为模糊Petri网的一般方法和故障诊断模型,以及基于双阈值设定的两级故障诊断推理算法,并将其应用于某型柴油机遥控系统故障诊断之中。通过设置双阈值提高了故障诊断的推理速度和推理效率,同时又能对系统的准故障状态进行检测,及时发现潜在故障,排除故障隐患。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.