关于模糊非单调推理系统的研究

传统的逻辑推理是有局限性的,而非单调推理则具有普遍的意义。本文在分析和研究非单调推理、非单调推理系统 TMS 的基础上,指出了 TMS 存在的问题,如:没有处理模糊信息、不精确信息的能力,效率低等等;提出了模糊非单调推理系统 FTMS,在该系统中,引入模糊数学中贴近度的概念解决了模糊命题的不相容性,并用一个新的概念—假设正确度解决了 TMS 面向从属关系回溯中选择错误效率低的问题。     

专家系统中引入非单调推理的算法描述

专家系统中常用不精确推理,它们是单调的,单调的推理是有局限性的,而非单调推理则具有普遍的意义。在对不精确推理中的模糊推理、非单调推理分析和研究的基础上,提出了模糊推理和非单调推理有效结合的方法。首先研究了模糊推理与非单调推理的结合,引入模糊数学中贴近度的概念,解决了模糊命题的不相容性。其次提出了一个新的概念——假设正确度,解决了面向从属关系回溯中选择错误效率低的问题。最后给出了模糊非单调推理系统与专家系统一起工作的算法描述。     

人工智能非单调推理系统的研究

传统的逻辑推理是有局限性的,而非单调推理则具有普遍的意义。非单调推理的TMS存在着许多问题,如:没有处理模糊信息的能力、单状态、热衷于避免矛盾以及效率低等等。这些问题在非单调推理系统FATMS里能得到很好的解决。     

表示结构化知识的神经网络模型

研究和设计了一种高度结构化的神经网络模型ＨＳＮＮ,它能方便地对结构化知识进行表示和处理。文中给出了ＨＳＮＮ的设计过程,并讨论了ＨＳＮＮ在继承、非单调推理和信息检索等方面的应用     

近似推理研究进展及其在CAPP专家系统中的应用

本文介绍了近似推理研究的新进展,包括概率推理,模糊推理,非单调推理,定性推理及作者提出了灰色推理;讨论了近似推理在计算机辅助工艺规划（ＣｏｍｐｕｔｅｒＡｉｄｅｄＰｒｏｃｅｓｓＰｌａｎｎｉｎｇ,ＣＡＰＰ）专家系统中的应用;展望了今后的发展趋势。     

仿真语言自动排序器

连续系统高级仿真语言是一种非过程的程序设计语言,程序的书写顺序与执行顺序无关。为了将仿真语言程序编译成能在计算机上正确执行的程序,必须对源程序进行排序。本文在讨论分析了高级仿真语言动力学段特性的基础上,给出了并行仿真软件PAR-SIM中高级仿真语言PARCSSL编译器的自动排序器的实现算法。     

模糊聚类分析在多目标跟踪中的应用

为了解决在密集的环境中多目标跟踪的难题，本文提出了基于模糊聚类跟踪算法，主要是将人的模糊判断的特点引入到目标跟踪系统中，得以简单程序完成复杂的相关判别。利用模糊聚类方法的特点解决噪声背景下跟踪相关问题。仿真实验的结果表明，在杂波密度高的情况下，模糊聚类算法有它一定的优越性。     

基于熵权的仿真可信度模糊综合评估方法研究

为有效解决可信度评估过程中的模糊性问题,应用了一种熵权与三角模糊数相结合的模糊综合评判方法.首先阐进了信息熵与模糊数的相关理论以及评估过程中的基本步骤,并利用熵权代替传统权值,结合模糊综合评判进行仿真系统的可信度评估;最后以某型武器视景仿真系统为例,进行综合可信度评估.计算结果表明,该方法具有一定的合理性和可行性.     

用于海军决策支持辅助的基于模糊逻辑知识的系统

本文叙述了一种用于决策支持辅助系统的模糊逻辑方法以及以运动物体速度相当慢的海军领域内人的专门知识的优点。我们研究跟踪过程中的机动辅助功能。传统的方法是使用简化假设建立数学模型。但是,跟踪过程不能严格确定,在性质上它是一个近似推理过程。在本文中我们提出一种由基于模糊逻辑知识系统提供的一种新方法。该方法的要点是描述操作人员的行为特征,以便将其结合到模糊逻辑决策辅助系统中。 已经实现了模糊逻辑开发环境。通过仿真获得了很满意的结果,证明这种模糊逻辑方法是合理的。     

基于案例推理和模糊诊断的兵器故障诊断专家系统

讨论了基于案例的推理和模糊诊断矩阵在兵器故障中的应用 ,建立了兵器故障诊断WDDS -E系统模型和模糊诊断矩阵模型。详细说明了系统的工作原理和设计过程 ,并给出了应用实例     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.