脉冲电抗器结构应力测量

为了对高压脉冲放电时电抗器结构受力及电流密度分布规律进行分析,使用电阻应变片对电抗器铜带进行应力测量。利用厚壁筒受压模型对应力测量系统的结果进行计算,设计内置气囊增压法来等效铜带上的应力对测量系统进行标定,并对标定实验数据进行验证。使用半桥补偿电路、屏蔽线及电桥盒共地的方法来减小脉冲电磁干扰及测量回路中寄生电阻和电容带来的电气干扰。实验结果表明:同一测量点处的环向应变峰值比轴向应变峰值大,边缘处的应变大于中心处的,需要在电抗器铜带边缘处加强外包约束。根据应力测量结果推断:铜带边缘处电流密度约为中心处电流密度的1.2倍。     

不确定失效阈值影响下考虑设备剩余寿命预测信息的最优替换策略

为了进一步提升设备维修决策的科学性,通过建立综合设备剩余寿命预测数据与不确定失效阈值的最优维修决策模型,实现了不可维修设备的最优替换策略。构建基于非线性Wiener过程的设备性能退化模型,并采用极大似然法估计退化模型参数;提出一种基于期望最大(Expectation Maximization, EM)算法的不确定失效阈值分布系数估计方法,通过引入虚拟失效阈值数据实现对失效阈值分布系数的同步迭代更新;基于首达时的概念推导出不确定失效阈值条件下设备剩余寿命的概率密度函数,并基于更新报酬理论建立维修决策模型,从而实现设备的最优维修决策。算例分析表明,设备的失效阈值会对维修决策结果产生重要影响,考虑设备失效阈值的不确定性既有助于提升剩余寿命预测的准确性,又可以有效降低设备的寿命周期费用。     

步进加速退化试验及其在电子产品可靠性评估中的应用

为快速评估具有高可靠、长寿命特点的电子产品的可靠性，提出了使用步进加速退化试验技术的方法。文中首先给出了步进加速退化的试验方法及基本假设，然后给出了步进退化数据向恒加退化数据的折算方法，在此基础上提出了基于伪失效寿命的步进加速退化可靠性评估算法，最后利用试验数据对该方法进行了验证。该方法与恒加退化试验相比，在保持样本量不变的基础上，可以极大地缩短试验时间，因此，具有更高的效费比。     

基于磁导率法的零部件硬度电磁无损检测技术研究

传统的机械压痕法虽能测量火炮零部件的硬度,但对其表面有损害,且某些零部件工作面并不允许使用打点测量方式．为解决这一问题,基于硬度与材料磁导率之间的对应关系,设计了一种硬度电磁无损检测系统,采用DDS技术实现参数可控的正弦信号源,以满足磁导率测试所需的激励条件．为了提高检测灵敏度,利用交流电桥拾取由硬度变化引起的检测线圈和参考线圈电压差分信号,并进一步在调理电路中采用正交锁相放大技术对这一微弱信号进行放大和噪声抑制．硬度试验结果表明,该系统能以无损的检测方式有效地区分零部件的硬度值,为火炮定型试验中的硬度测量提供了新途径．     

基于似然比检验的橡胶密封件加速试验机理一致性判别方法

加速退化试验广泛应用于橡胶密封件等长寿命产品的可靠性评估，试验过程中需要将高应力水平下的试验结果外推到正常应力水平。要获得准确的产品可靠性评估结果，需要保证加速应力下的退化失效机理与正常应力下的退化失效机理一致。基于似然比检验原理，提出加速退化试验机理一致性判别方法及流程。针对失效机理一致与失效机理变化两种场合，提出对数线性及非对数线性两类加速模型，并结合混合效应模型描述产品退化过程。利用似然比检验判断加速模型参数是否变化，完成失效机理一致性判别。仿真算例和应用实例表明，该方法能够有效判别橡胶密封件失效机理是否变化，并找到失效机理不变的应力水平边界。     

考虑非线性退化与随机失效阈值的剩余寿命预测

针对广泛存在的非线性退化设备,现有方法尚未考虑随机失效阈值对剩余寿命预测结果的影响。因此,通过对设备性能退化过程进行分析,提出了一种综合考虑非线性退化与随机失效阈值的剩余寿命预测方法。基于Wiener过程构建了考虑个体差异与测量误差的非线性退化模型;基于卡尔曼滤波算法建立状态空间模型以实现对退化状态的在线更新;基于极大似然法估计失效阈值分布系数估计方法,得到随机失效阈值的概率分布;基于随机失效阈值推导出剩余寿命的概率分布,实现对剩余寿命的在线预测。算例研究表明,所提方法可以有效地提升剩余寿命预测的准确性,具备一定工程应用价值。     

基于GA-SVDD的轴承性能退化评估

为解决因机械设备轴承损伤导致机械故障而无法正常工作的问题,提出了一种基于GA-SVDD的轴承性能退化定量评估方法。该方法采用遗传算法优化选择特征参量,并建立SVDD超球体模型,运用SVDD距离评估轴承的性能退化程度。实验分析表明：该方法能够有效地对轴承性能退化过程的细节进行描述,实现对待测样本退化程度的定量评估。     

利用RLC电路合成高压方波脉冲

基于过阻尼RLC电路分时放电,提出了一种新型高压方波脉冲产生方法。理论分析表明过阻尼RLC电路产生的双指数电压波与PFL产生的方形电压波具有类似的上升沿和平顶。电路模拟表明通过人工过零技术可以对双指数电压波进行截尾,从而形成完整的高压方波脉冲。建立了原理验证性样机,由两组RLC电路构成,每组电路包含一台400 nF脉冲电容器和一只三电极场畸变气体开关,两组电路共用一个上升沿调节电感。实验证明样机可以在250 Ω电阻负载上输出幅值17 kV,平顶宽度330 ns~5.8 μs,上升沿100~ 350 ns 的单极性高压方波脉冲。该方法适应性强,对负载变化不敏感,同时具有良好的可调节性,方波上升沿、平顶宽度连续独立可调。     

性能退化与寿命数据融合的贝叶斯方法研究

针对高可靠性航空产品寿命失效数据样本量小,传统评估方法可信度低的难题,提出基于性能退化数据与寿命失效数据融合的可靠性评估方法。然后用失效机理分析、建模方法选择、失效阀值确定、置信区间求解和数据融合5个关键步骤具体阐述了该方法。最后以飞机液压泵为例,使用该方法进行性能退化数据与寿命数据的融合计算。分析表明,该方法充分利用了性能数据和寿命数据,比传统的方法更加合理,评估结果更加精确。     

考虑退化-冲击竞争失效的系统可靠性建模

针对在复杂环境中工作的关键系统,提出一种考虑退化-冲击关联竞争失效的可靠性建模方法。选取Wiener过程和齐次泊松过程分别描述自然退化与随机冲击,通过冲击造成的退化增量表示退化-冲击之间的关联性,基于此建立退化-冲击关联竞争失效的退化模型和可靠性模型;通过定期检测获取系统退化数据,采用极大似然法估计退化模型参数;以陀螺仪为例,通过对比分析和敏感性分析验证了模型的有效性和应用价值。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.