Allocating the U.S. Department of Defense Budget: Revisiting the ‘Incremental/Fair Share Model’

Abstract

This article examines the ‘incremental/fair share model’ that was proposed by Alex Mintz in 1988 concerning the budget allocation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Although Mintz was unable to confirm the correctness of his model, this study demonstrated it to be statistically significant. In the statistical analyses, I used the two-stage least squares method and Durbin’s h-test to better scrutinize the model’s adequacy. Few previous studies have addressed the allocation of the U.S. defence budget; consequently, the incremental/fair-share model should constitute a starting point for further research on the U.S. defence budget allocation.     

非对称相互依赖下的美日军事同盟机制分析——以奥巴马政府“重返亚太”为视角

2012年1月5日,美国国防部发表了《保持美国的全球领导地位:21世纪的防务重点计划报告》,在"重返亚太"战略的战略背景下,重点针对美国未来的军事力量结构、全球部署态势、军事战略目标等进行了重新规划。新军事战略调整对整个国际格局和地区性大国产生深远影响。随着美国重返亚太的战略调整,军事上的相互依赖程度体现在美日同盟之间尤为突出。本文仅从军事战略角度,运用《权力与相互依赖》中部分理论对其调整下的美日军事同盟机制进行分析。     

论美军“作战云”理论的制胜机理

美军"作战云"理论的制胜机理是以云计算技术作为物质基础和技术依托,以"云部署、云聚合、云攻击(防御)、云消散"体现作战过程,以"集中指挥、分布式控制和分散执行"为基本指控方式,以"跨域协同"作为作战协同的基本方式。由于该理论实现了战场信息的有效融合和共享,作战力量的动态聚能和释能,作战任务的临时赋予和即时完成以及不同领域作战能力的互补增效,因此将促使美军的武器装备、力量结构、作战方式及战场形态等发生新的重大变化。     

防空兵群(团)火力配系优化

首先阐明了防空兵群(团)火力配系优化的基本概念,然后,运用作战模拟的有关理论,分别建立了火力单位距目标的最佳配置距离(D)、防空兵群(团)对来袭目标的抗击率(Pk)和被保护目标的安全率(Pa)的优化模型。在此基础上,提出了防空兵群(团)火力配系优化的一般方法。最后通过一个实例,说明了防空兵群(团)火力配系的具体步骤。     

Force deployment and the production of security: Why is the united states in NATO?

Standard economic concepts of production and cost minimization subject to a production constraint are used to derive the conditions of optimal deployment of home and forward military forces for the production of home security. United States' participation in the NATO alliance is then analyzed in the context of a two‐ally (U.S. and Western Europe) optimal force deployment model of NATO. Next, U.S. force‐basing policy is adduced as an enforcement mechanism for the “transatlantic contract.” Lastly, statistical evidence on burden sharing within Western Europe, and the effectiveness of the U.S. contract enforcement policy, is presented.     

美国国家导弹防御(NMD)系统

1 999年 3月 ,美国国会参众两院通过了国家导弹防御系统的法案 ,该法案规定 ,一旦该系统研制成功 ,美国应立即予以部署 ,从而引起国际社会和舆论的广泛关注。简要介绍了美国弹道导弹防御计划的演变 ,国家导弹防御系统的组成、性能特点和基本配置以及拦截试验的基本情况。     

美国2014年《四年防务评估报告》特点

2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。     

U.S. SPACE WEAPONS

Under the administration of President George W. Bush, Pentagon rhetoric has increasingly articulated a more robust vision of space as a future battlefield. This analysis details some of the ongoing spending for research and development programs identified in current U.S. Air Force, Missile Defense Agency (MDA), and Defense Advanced Research and Planning Agency (DARPA) planning and budget documents related to “space control” and “space force projection.” This analysis finds that current support for “space superiority” and “space control” systems remains largely rhetorical—with little actual budgetary support. Unclassified technology development programs included in the six-year Future Years Defense Plan are a decade or more away from deployment. Programs related to offensive counterspace, space-based missile defense interceptors, and space-based strike total slightly less than $300 million in FY 2006 funding. We conclude significantly higher expenditures in research and development would be required to develop and deploy killer micro satellites, space-based missile defense interceptors, and military space planes.     

美国国防部资助的实验室体系架构

美国国防部管理或委托管理的实验室散布在大学、联邦资助的研发中心和直属科研机构中，是美国国防科技创新体系的一支重要力量。文章从科研经费、人员规模、研究特色等方面对这些实验室进行分类介绍和分析，勾勒出其体系架构，以期对我们布局和建设以国防科技研发为核心任务的实验室、中心等科研机构提供参考。     

C4KISR-美军指挥自动化系统的最新发展

当前,美军以"网络中心战"为样本勾勒未来的作战模式,美军军事理论上的转变产生了全新的军事需求,并不断要求C4ISR系统在概念和功能上有所拓展和增强.针对美军目前的作战需求,美军在以往C4ISR系统的基础上提出一个新的概念--C4KISR.基于C4KISR系统的现状,介绍了该系统的演变历程和发展背景,分析了C4KISR系统的功能模式与体系结构,归纳了美军C4KISR系统未来发展的核心技术需求.     

美国国家导弹防御系统

美国国家导弹防御系统已引起了世界的广泛关注。主要阐述该系统的主要组成、功能、特点、进展及系统部署设想     

网络中心战对潜艇作战指挥的影响

网络中心战是由美军提出的一种在信息化战争中的作战模式,通过分析网络中心战的概念框架结构,得出在网络中心战条件下军队应该具备的三种能力.同时潜艇作为信息化海战中的主要作战平台,网络中心战理论的提出改变了潜艇传统的作战模式,对我海军潜艇作战指挥和装备的发展有着重要的参考价值.     

ACHIEVING NUCLEAR BALANCE

One of the most important questions affecting U.S. national security is the future size of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. While there is clear consensus within the U.S. government on the need to reduce the size of the arsenal, there is none on the best path to achieve these cuts; on the type of deterrent necessary to deal with future threats; or on the size of the production complex needed to support that arsenal. Creating a strategic commission to review these questions, as contemplated in the Fiscal 2008 House Defense Authorization bill, is a necessary first step to establish a sensible nuclear policy. The Reliable Replacement Warhead, which has the potential to transform the complex while preserving the current moratorium on nuclear testing, is a program worth exploring further if it stays within congressionally mandated bounds. As Congress considers both programmatic and policy matters related to U.S. nuclear weapons, it is vital that we also renew and strengthen U.S. leadership on nuclear nonproliferation.     

Did Star Wars Help End the Cold War? Soviet Response to the SDI Program

The Strategic Defense Initiative was a U.S. missile defense program that played a very prominent role in the U.S.–Soviet relationships in the 1980s and is often credited with helping end the Cold War, as it presented the Soviet Union with a technological challenge that it could not meet. This article introduces several official Soviet documents to examine Soviet response to SDI. The evidence suggests that although the Soviet Union expressed serious concerns about U.S. missile defense program, SDI was not a decisive factor in advancing arms control negotiations. Instead, the program seriously complicated U.S.–Soviet arms control process. SDI also failed to dissuade the Soviet Union from investing in development of ballistic missiles. The Soviet Union quickly identified ways to avoid a technological arms race with the United States and focused on development of advanced missiles and anti-satellite systems to counter missile defenses. Some of these programs have been preserved to the current day.     

美军联合信息环境计划?

联合信息环境计划（ JIE）是美国国防部为了提高军事网络的效率、效能与安全性，而对其国防信息基础设施进行的整合与重构计划。对美军联合信息环境计划的动因、关键技术和政策挑战、实施路径、对美军的影响等进行了较为全面的介绍。     

Next steps in the creation of an accidental nuclear war prevention center

In early 1983, members of Stanford University's Center for International Security and Arms Control met to discuss ideas on the establishment of a joint U.S.‐U.S.S.R. center to support cooperative efforts to prevent accidental nuclear war. William Perry (former Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering) began the discussion by outlining several measures he felt could help to reduce the risk of nuclear war by accident or miscalculation. Calling attention to the earlier proposals of Senators Gary Hart, Sam Nunn, and Henry Jackson, he endorsed the concept of a joint accidental nuclear war prevention center as a mechanism to support efforts of the two superpowers to prevent or reduce the likelihood of the outbreak of nuclear war. Most notable in this regard was his personal experience of an erroneous warning of a large‐scale Soviet missile attack on the U.S., which resulted from a NORAD computer malfunction. Information exchanges and consultation to clarify circumstances surrounding an accident ‐ or the misperceptions that might result from one ‐ could be facilitated by a number of different types of centers that have been suggested. Perry described one possible configuration for such a center, consisting of two stations, jointly staffed and located in Washington and Moscow.

Members of the Stanford Center met again in June 1983 to examine in more detail the issues raised by this idea and similar ones, and possible next steps involved in implementation. This paper reports on research in progress on this subject. In addition to the Perry contribution, much of the conceptual analysis of the missions of a joint center derives from the work of Alexander George on crisis prevention and crisis management.’ Those elements of the research covering the technical and ‘mechanization’ requirements are contributed by Elliott Levinthal and Ted Ralston. Lastly, the suggested negotiating approach derives from the experiences and thinking of Sidney Graybeal, former U.S. Commissioner of the Standing Consultative Commission (SCC).     

Military and Veterans’ Health,Health Care,and Wellbeing

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) need to bridge a gap in their understanding of service members’ health outcomes and the issues involved in treatment, such as cost. In addition, clinicians and policy analysts must overcome existing knowledge barriers. Clinicians need to be aware of policy changes that will affect their patient load in numbers and in treatment needs. Policy analysts need to be aware of issues relevant to clinical treatment, such as quality and timeliness of care. Given the need for services and support to military personnel and families, and the fact that the fastest growing expenses in defense are health care costs, a multi-disciplinary line of research will help lawmakers understand the most efficient and effective resource use across the health care services.     

计算机应用系统体系结构及部署方法研究

描述了Client/Server和Browser/Server两大体系结构模式及其架构的软件体系思想,并通过实例重点介绍基于.NET平台部署B/S架构的实现方法。     

DoDAF视图下的反导作战军事概念建模与仿真系统设计

反导作战概念模型是保证不同地空导弹武器系统之间指控系统可集成、可互操作性、高效一体化的关键。首先,针对传统建模语言在模型可执行验证方面的不足,在DoDAF视图框架下,提出一种基于统一建模语言（UML）的反导作战军事概念建模方法;其次,结合军事概念模型给出反导作战仿真系统设计的方法。规范建模框架并选择可执行性强的UML语言建立军事概念模型,对反导作战研究及指控系统开发具有一定参考价值。     

A branch and bound algorithm for allocation problems in which constraint coefficients depend upon decision variables

A branch and bound algorithm is developed for a class of allocation problems in which some constraint coefficients depend on the values of certain of the decision variables. Were it not for these dependencies, the problems could be solved by linear programming. The algorithm is developed in terms of a strategic deployment problem in which it is desired to find a least-cost transportation fleet, subject to constraints on men/materiel requirements in the event of certain hypothesized contingencies. Among the transportation vehicles available for selection are aircraft which exhibit the characteristic that the amount of goods deliverable by an aircraft on a particular route in a given time period (called aircraft productivity and measured in kilotons/aircraft/month) depends on the ratio of type 1 to type 2 aircraft used on that particular route. A model is formulated in which these relationships are first approximated by piecewise linear functions. A branch and bound algorithm for solving the resultant nonlinear problem is then presented; the algorithm solves a sequence of linear programming problems. The algorithm is illustrated by a sample problem and comments concerning its practicality are made.