Budgetary Trade-Offs Between Defense,Education and Health Expenditures: The Case of Turkey

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate empirically the existence of a budgetary trade-off between military, education and health expenditures in Turkey for the time period 1925-1998. Development economists, peace and defense economists and political economists have extensively investigated the existence of a trade-off between military, education and health spending since the 1970s. However, the literature review reveals that it is hard to establish a general theory of budgetary trade-off between military, education and health spending and make this applicable for all cases. This is mostly due to economic, social, political, and historical differences among the countries Moreover, it is likely that different research techniques, different time periods analyzed may produce different results. As a result of this, researchers have found a variety of outcomes regarding the trade-off between defense-education and health expenditures. This study presents a brief literature review within the framework of trade-offs between defense-education and health expenditures and also concentrates on theoretical model development. The discussion will center on developing a multi-variable single equation regression model and presenting estimable forms of equations.     

Budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in Turkey

This paper investigates the budgetary trade-off structure of security (defence+internal security) expenditures in Turkey for the period 1983-1998. A modified version of Todaro's distributive share index of social welfare is used to quantify the impacts on the growth of primary budget expenditures of Security, Education, Health, General Administration, Infrastructure, and Social Services. We find that defence expenditures dominate overall security expenditures and are less affected in times of bottlenecks in the economy. A systematic pattern of negative budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in terms of other components is not identified. We also analyse the expenditures of the Defence Industry Support Fund in an attempt to find the cost of the modernisation program to the economy.     

Nuclear Subsidies and Proliferation: Clarifying the Link

ABSTRACT

In March 2015, the South Australian state government established a royal commission to investigate the financial, social, technical, diplomatic, and nonproliferation benefits and risks of expanding its nuclear industry, including activities related to uranium mining; enriching, reprocessing, and fabricating nuclear fuels for both domestic use and export; producing nuclear power; and storing radiological waste, including foreign spent reactor fuel. Given its enormous uranium reserves and current mining activities, some Australians have argued that Australia could benefit financially by expanding the mining sector and by adding value to its uranium exports by enriching the material and fabricating it into reactor fuel assemblies. Others have maintained that Australia can realize significant economic benefits by recycling and storing foreign spent fuel and producing carbon-free nuclear power. In the end, the commission recommended that Australia consider opening up a high-level waste repository to take in foreign spent fuel. It did not recommend any other nuclear activities at this time. The following viewpoint is based on testimony I delivered to the commission on the nuclear weapon proliferation implications of the proposed activities. If Australia wants to avoid the temptation of selling nuclear goods to states that might use these goods to make bombs, it should only consider new nuclear activities that can be entirely financed by the private sector and turn a profit without having to resort to foreign sales. This policy would also enable Australia to set an important, new international nonproliferation standard.     

A minmax search for the critical level of a system: The asymmetric case

We consider a system composed of k components, each of which is subject to failure if temperature is above a critical level. The failure of one component causes the failure of the system as a whole (a serially connected system). If z_i is the critical temperature of the ith component then z^* = min{z_i: i = 1,2,…, k} is the critical level of the system. The components may be tested individually at different temperature levels, if the temperature is below the critical level the cost is $1, otherwise the test is destructive and the cost is m > 1 dollars. The purpose of this article is to construct, under a budgetary constraint, an efficient (in a minmax sense) testing procedure which will locate the critical level of the system with maximal accuracy.     

Reviews

A. Hamish Ion and E.J. Errington (eds.), Great Powers and Little Wars: the Limits of Power. Westport, CT: Praeger, 1993. Pp.246, select biblio, index. $49.95. ISBN 0275–93965–0

John M. Rothgeb, Jr., Defining Power: Influence and Force in the Contemporary International System. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993. Pp.205. $39.95 (hbk); $18.70 (pbk). ISBN 0312–086–822 and 061–056

Brian L. Job (ed.), The Insecurity Dilemma: National Security in Third World States. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1992, Pp.257. $37. ISBN 1–55587–267–0

Edwin G. Corr and Stephen Sloan (eds.), Low‐Intensity Conflict: Old Threats in a New World. Westview Studies in Regional Security, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1992. Pp.310, maps, figures, index. $55 (hbk); $18.85 (pbk). ISBN 0–8133–8593–8 and 8594–6     

The Cultural Revolution in Counter-Insurgency

Michael C. Fowler, Amateur Soldiers, Global Wars: Insurgency and Modern Conflict.Westport, CT: Praeger, 2005. Pp.183. $49.95/£28.99, HB. ISBN 0-275-98136-3.

Roger Trinquier, Modern Warfare: A French View on Counterinsurgency, first published in France as La Guerre Moderne (1961), trans. by Daniel Lee, foreword by Bernard Fall, introduction by Eliot Cohen. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2006. Pp.95. $74.95/£41.95, HB. ISBN 0-275-99267-5. US$29.95/£16.95, PB. ISBN 0-275-99268-3.

David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice first published 1964, foreword by John A. Nagl. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2006. Pp.107. $74.95/£41.95, HB. ISBN 0-275-99269-1. $0.00/£0.00, PB ISBN 0-275-99303-5.

Richard H. Shultz, Jr. and Andrea J. Dew, Insurgents, Terrorists and Militias – The Warriors of Contemporary Combat. New York: Columbia University Press, 2006. Pp.316. $29.50/£19, HB. ISBN 0-231-12982-3.

Robert M. Cassidy, Counterinsurgency and the Global War on Terror: Military Culture and Irregular War. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2006. Pp.211. US$49.95/£28.99, HB. ISBN 0-275-98990-9.

US Army and US Marine Corps, Counterinsurgency FM 3-24, MCWP 3-33.5 of 15 December 2006. Pp.282 <http://usacac.army.mil/CAC/Repository/Materials/COIN-FM3-24.pdf>.     

The Economic Consequences of the Libyan Spring: A Synthetic Control Analysis

Abstract

In 2011 a wave of revolutionary movements, the so-called Arab Spring, spread in the Middle East and North Africa. Libya was one of the most affected countries, ending Gaddafi’s dictatorship after an international intervention and a civil war. This paper assesses the effects that this revolution had on Libyan economy. The analysis is made by means of the synthetic control method. Our estimates for the 2011–2014 period show (i) a cumulative loss in the growth rate of per capita real GDP of 64.15%; (ii) a cumulative loss in per capita real GDP of 56,548 dollars; and (iii) a cumulative loss in the aggregate real GDP of 350.5 billion dollars.     

Book reviews

John Lawrence Tone, The Fatal Knot: The Guerrilla War in Navarre and the Defeat of Napoleon in Spain. Chapel Hill and London; The University of North Carolina Press 1994. Pp.vii + 239, 1 map, biblio., index. $34.95 (cloth). ISBN 0–8078–2169–1.

Robert Holland (ed), Emergencies and Disorder in the European Empires after 1945. London: Frank Cass, 1994. Pp.x + 256; index. £32 (cloth); £15 (paper). ISBN 0–7146–4516–8 and 4109 X

Deborah L. Norden, Military Rebellion in Argentina: Between Coups and Consolidation. Lincoln, NE: University of Nebraska Press, 1996. Pp.242, index, $35/$17.50 (paper). ISBN 0–8032–8369–5.

William M. Minter, Apartheid's Contras: An Inquiry into the Roots of War in Angola and Mozambique. London and Atlantic Highlands, NJ: Zed Books Ltd; Johannesburg: Witwatersrand University Press, 1994. Pp. xii +308, 3 maps, biblio., index. $69.95/£39.95 (cloth); $29.95/£16.95(paper). ISBN 1–85649–266–4 and 266–4.     

Meeting the growing safeguards burden

ABSTRACT

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces challenges in fulfilling its safeguards mandate as a result of an expanding safeguards burden and a relatively static budget. This dilemma has been exacerbated by the additional burdens of implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Iran, but would not go away if implementation of the JCPOA were to end. There are three main areas of opportunity for the Agency: (1) budgetary expansion tied to changes in staffing policies, (2) changes in safeguards approaches, and (3) technological innovation. Barriers and limitations are associated with each approach, and advancing any of them will face a difficult political environment in Vienna.     

Health Insurance,Health Conditions,and Veteran Health Care Utilization

Abstract

The utilization of health care services by veterans has received much attention in recent years. However, the impact of the large array of factors affecting the veterans’ demand for health care services remains understudied. These factors include individual socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the availability of various sources of health insurance, and the prevalence of medical conditions. We use public data to analyze how veterans’ utilization of health care services varies with these factors. We also analyze how the reliance on VA services varies when alternative sources of health insurance are available to veterans. Based on the estimated relationships, we use a micro-simulation model to forecast future health care utilization, both inside and outside of VA.     

Military and Veterans’ Health,Health Care,and Wellbeing

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) need to bridge a gap in their understanding of service members’ health outcomes and the issues involved in treatment, such as cost. In addition, clinicians and policy analysts must overcome existing knowledge barriers. Clinicians need to be aware of policy changes that will affect their patient load in numbers and in treatment needs. Policy analysts need to be aware of issues relevant to clinical treatment, such as quality and timeliness of care. Given the need for services and support to military personnel and families, and the fact that the fastest growing expenses in defense are health care costs, a multi-disciplinary line of research will help lawmakers understand the most efficient and effective resource use across the health care services.     

Book reviews

Frank Zimmer, Bismarcks Kampf gegen Kaiser Franz Joseph Konigsgratz und seine Folgen. Graz, Vienna, Cologne: Styria Verlag 1996. Pp.203,49 illus., 1 map. OS 350/DM 49. ISBN 3–222–12377–2.

Saul Zadka, Blood in Zion: How the Jewish Guerrillas drove the British out of Palestine. London and Washington: Brassey's, 1995. Pp.227, chron., illus., index. £19.95. ISBN 1–85753–136–1.

Theodore L. Gatchel, At the Water's Edge: Defending against the Modern Amphibious Assault. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1996. Pp.xvi+217, notes, biblio, index. $36.95. ISBN 1–55750–308–7.

Max G. Manwaring and William J. Olson (eds.) Managing Contemporary Conflict: Pillars of Success. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996. Pp.269, no index. $65 (cloth); $25 (paper). ISBN 0–8133–8969 and 9978–5

Chris Seiple, The US Military/NGO Relationship in Humanitarian Interventions, Carlisle Barracks, PA: The

Richard L. Millett and Michael Gold‐Biss (eds.) Beyond Praetorianism: The Latin American Military in Transition. University of Miami: North/South Center Press; Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1996. Pp.xv +317, index. $24.95. ISBN 1–5745–000–9.

Rudolph C. Barnes Jr, Military Legitimacy: Might and Right in the New Millennium. London and Portland, OR: Frank Cass, 1996. Pp.199, select biblio., index. £27.50/$39.50, ISBN 0–714–4624–5.     

Book reviews

G. C. Peden, British Rearmament And The Treasury: 1932–1939. Edinburgh: Scottish Academic Press, 1979. Pp. 227; £6.00.

B. Mitchell Simpson (Ed.), War Strategy and Maritime Power. New Brunswick, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press, 1978. Pp. 356; $19.50.

Paola E. Coletta, Admiral Bradley A. Fiske and the American Navy. Lawrence, Kansas: The Regents Press, 1979. Pp. 306; $25.00.

James L. George, Problems of Sea Power as We Approach the Twenty‐First Century. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1978. Pp. 365; $11.75, clothbound and $5.75 paperback.

Donald C. Daniel (Ed), International Perceptions of the Super‐Power Military Balance. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1978. Pp 198;£13.50.

D. Frei (ed.), International Crises and Crisis Management. Farnborough: Saxon House, 1978. Pp. 154; £10.00.

Yaacov Ro'i (Ed.), The Limits to Power: Soviet Policy in the Middle East. London: Croom Helm, 1979. Pp. 376; £10.95.

E. J. Feuchtwanger and R. A. Mason, (Eds.), Air Power in the Next Genera‐tion. London: Macmillan Press, 1978. Pp. 151; £10.00.

J. David Singer (Ed.), The Correlates of War: I Research Origins and Rationale. New York: The Free Press; 1979. Pp. 405; £13.45.     

Allocating the U.S. Department of Defense Budget: Revisiting the ‘Incremental/Fair Share Model’

Abstract

This article examines the ‘incremental/fair share model’ that was proposed by Alex Mintz in 1988 concerning the budget allocation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Although Mintz was unable to confirm the correctness of his model, this study demonstrated it to be statistically significant. In the statistical analyses, I used the two-stage least squares method and Durbin’s h-test to better scrutinize the model’s adequacy. Few previous studies have addressed the allocation of the U.S. defence budget; consequently, the incremental/fair-share model should constitute a starting point for further research on the U.S. defence budget allocation.     

Special Air Service Books to Choose From

Barry Davies, Joining the SAS: How to Get In and What It's Like.Miami: Lewis International Inc., 1998. Pp.214, photos, index. $22.95. ISBN 0–966771–4–2.

Peter McAleese and John Avery, McAleese's Fighting Manual: The Definitive Soldier's Handbook.London: Orion, 1998. Pp.179, illus. £18.95. ISBN 0–75280–063–9.

Steve Crawford et al.The SAS Encyclopedia: The Definitive Guide to the World's Crack Regiment.Miami: Lewis International Inc., 1998. Pp.288, photos, maps, index. $29.95. ISBN 0–9666771–0–2.

Barry Davies et al.The Complete Encyclopedia of the SAS.London: Virgin Publishing Ltd, 1998. Pp.288, photos, maps, no index. $39.95. ISBN 1–85227–707–6.     

Plunder or Trade?

Plunder and trade are theoretically and historically entwined in complex ways. This paper examines when rational players will choose one or both by employing a model of plunder within an evolutionary game theoretic framework. Evolutionary stable strategy equilibria are derived and the replicator dynamics are examined for simple two-by-two symmetric games. Not only are positive defense allocations necessary for trade, implying that all trade is of a contested nature, but the defense technology must also exhibit sufficient effectiveness relative to the plunder technology. A continuum of possible exchanges is proposed that is based on the effectiveness of enforcing property claims. For high levels of transactions costs, plunder dominates. As transactions costs decline, mutual trade emerges as one possible exchange mechanism. All market exchange entails some cost of enforcement; it is contested. Insufficient enforcement of property claims produces mutual plunder as the dominant exchange mechanism. Some implications are suggested for institutional evolution. C7 K4 N4     

Book Reviews

Patrick Finney (ed.), The Origins of the Second World War. London: Arnold, 1997. Pp.xvi + 461, index. £15.99. ISBN 0–340–67640‐X.

Maria Emilia Paz, Strategy, Security, and Spies: Mexico and the US as Allies in World War II. University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997. Pp.xii + 264, 10 illus., biblio., index. $55 (cloth); $19.95 (paper). ISBN 0–271–01665–5 and 01666–3.

Norman J.W. Goda, Tomorrow the World: Hitler, Northwest Africa and the Path toward America. College Station, Texas A&;M University Press, 1998. Pp.xxvi + 307, 2 maps, biblio., index. $39.95. ISBN 0–89096–807–1.

Michael J. Hogan, A Cross of Iron: Harry S. Truman and the Origins of the National Security State, 1945–1954. Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Pp.xii + 525, biblio., index. £25; $34.95. ISBN 0–521–64044‐X.

Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1999. Pp.viii + 270, index. $35. ISBN 0–801403201–4.

Eric Arnett (ed.), Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in South Asia after the Test Ban, SIPRI Research Report No.14. Oxford: Oxford University Press/Stockholm Int Peace Research Institute, 1998. Pp.viii + 98, index. £12.99. ISBN 0–19–8294115.

T.V. Paul, Richard J. Harknett and James J. Wirtz (eds.), The Absolute Weapon Revisited: Nuclear Arms and Emerging International Order. Ann Arbor, Michigan: The University of Michigan Press, 1998. Pp.vi + 312, index. $47.50/£36. ISBN 0–472–10863–8.     

Conventional force restructuring and arms control: A trailer for forthcoming attractions in this theatre

F. Barnaby, The Automated Battlefield. New York: The Free Press, 1986. Pp.185; $18.95.

R. Berg and A.D. Rotfeld, Building Security in Europe: Confidence ‐Building Measures and the CSCE. New York: Institute for East‐West Security Studies, 1986. Pp.iii + 181; paperback; NP.

A. Pierre (ed.), The Conventional Defense of Europe: New Technologies and New Strategies (Europe/America series No.5), New York and London: New York University Press, 1986. Pp.xii + 185; $19.50.     

Quality control chart design under Jidoka

We consider design of control charts in the presence of machine stoppages that are exogenously imposed (as under jidoka practices). Each stoppage creates an opportunity for inspection/repair at reduced cost. We first model a single machine facing opportunities arriving according to a Poisson process, develop the expressions for its operating characteristics and construct the optimization problem for economic design of a control chart. We, then, consider the multiple machine setting where individual machine stoppages may create inspection/repair opportunities for other machines. We develop exact expressions for the cases when all machines are either opportunity‐takers or not. On the basis of an approximation for the all‐taker case, we then propose an approximate model for the mixed case. In a numerical study, we examine the opportunity taking behavior of machines in both single and multiple machine settings and the impact of such practices on the design of an X – Q C chart. Our findings indicate that incorporating inspection/repair opportunities into QC chart design may provide considerable cost savings. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Book reviews

Norman Cigar, Genocide in Bosnia: The Policy of “Ethnic Cleansing”. College Station, Texas: Texas A&M University Press, 1995. Pp.xiv + 247; app., map, notes, cartoon.

Maria Jose Moyano, Argentina's Lost Patrol: Armed Struggle, 1969–1979. New Haven: Connecticut Yale University Press, 1995. Pp.xiii + 226, biblio., abbreviations, 10 figures, 1 map, tables, index; $25/£16.95. ISBN 0–300–01622–6.

Donald E. Schulz and Deborah Sundloff Schulz, The United States, Honduras, and the Crisis in Central America, Westview Thematic Studies in Latin America, Boulder, Co: Westview, 1994. Pp.368, map, figure, select biblio., abbreviations, index. $52.50/£37.50; (cloth) $17.95/£11.95 (paper). ISBN 0–8133–1324–4 and 1323–6.

Joseph H. Alexander and Merrill L. Bartlett, Sea Soldiers in the Cold War: Amphibious Warfare 1945–1991. Annapolis, Maryland: Naval Institute Press, 1995. Pp.iii + 178, 1 map, 29 illus, biblio, index. $32.95. ISBN

Gary P. Cox, The Halt in the Mud: French Strategic Planning from Waterloo to Sedan. Westview Press, 1994. Pp.258, maps, notes, biblio, index. £33.50. ISBN 0–133–1536–0.