基于威力场的超视距协同空战态势评估方法

针对非参量法模型将动态优势与静态优势孤立,传统表现形式无法直观、形象体现具体编队的超视距协同空战态势的问题,将威力场的概念应用于超视距协同空战态势评估。根据超视距协同空战特点,从战斗机攻击能力、通信能力、探测能力、生存能力、电子干扰能力、协同能力和全向告警能力等方面构建威力势模型。仿真结果表明此方法能够克服非参量法模型的缺点,能够全面、直观、形象地对超视距协同空战的态势进行评估,且可以有效提高战场决策者的效率和决策的质量。     

基于协同攻击区模型的多机最优攻击占位决策

目前的导弹攻击区描述方法仅适用于单机,当编队协同作战时,多机的导弹攻击区合成范围无法有效获取,限制了编队作战效能的提高。针对多机最优攻击占位问题,设计了基于目标转弯角的目标机动攻击区描述方法,并建立协同攻击区模型;设计协同攻击区评价指标,分析载机占位优势;通过双机协同攻击占位仿真实验,验证了通过协同攻击区模型,能制定出多机最优攻击占位决策,有效扩大导弹允许发射范围,提高作战任务成功率。     

电子对抗条件下空战综合优势评估模型

针对空战中飞行机动与电子对抗之间的协同攻击决策问题,通过建立符合空战仿真需求的超视距基本战术动作库和运动模型,将机载火控雷达威力区、电子对抗干扰压制区和干扰条件下的空空导弹攻击区、允许脱离时间等要素有机结合,建立了电子干扰条件下空战态势与空战能力协同的综合优势评估方法.作战推演结果表明,建立的空战综合优势评估方法较全面合理地反映了现代空战的特点,能够满足现代空战机动决策需求.     

信息支援条件下协同空战态势评估研究（英文）

针对现有空战态势评估方法表现形式不够直观、模型简单的问题,提出一种将威力场与遗传神经网络相结合的态势评估方法,并将其应用于信息支援条件下的协同空战态势评估。分别从攻击能力、探测能力、电子干扰能力、生存能力、通信能力、告警能力、协同能力以及决策能力等方面构建威力势模型。利用遗传算法优化BP神经网络,并将其应用于编队作战能力评估。最后利用具体算例进行仿真验证,结果表明该方法是正确可行的。相比于传统态势评估方法,该方法在信息支援条件下的超视距协同空战态势评估中具有全面性、直观性、准确性等优势。     

信息支援条件下协同空战态势评估研究

针对现有空战态势评估方法表现形式不够直观、模型简单的问题,提出一种将威力场与遗传神经网络相结合的态势评估方法,并将其应用于信息支援条件下的协同空战态势评估.分别从攻击能力、探测能力、电子干扰能力、生存能力、通信能力、告警能力、协同能力以及决策能力等方面构建威力势模型.利用遗传算法优化BP神经网络,并将其应用于编队作战能力评估.最后利用具体算例进行仿真验证,结果表明该方法是正确可行的.相比于传统态势评估方法,该方法在信息支援条件下的超视距协同空战态势评估中具有全面性、直观性、准确性等优势.     

海上编队雷达网近程协同抗ARM方法与仿真

根据反辐射导弹（ARM）攻击时捕捉目标的局限性,提出了海上编队雷达网利用编队内各平台之间的间距优势来协同抗ARM的方法,建立了海上编队雷达网在近程距离内协同抗ARM的能力评估模型和对抗行为模型。其中,能力评估模型可以对海上编队雷达网抗ARM的能力进行评估。舰艇编队在面临ARM威胁时,通过对上述两个模型结合使用,可以对ARM实施有效诱偏。仿真试验结果表明,所建立模型具有一定的可行性和正确性。     

自适应蚁群算法的多机协同空战目标分配方法

对目标超视距空战将是今后空战的主要形式和发展趋势,多机协同多目标攻击中的关键问题是空战决策.首先建立了空战态势评估方法,结合蚁群算法思想,提出了一种新型的目标分配算法模型,并进行了算法实验.实验结果表明基于自适应蚁群算法解决多机协同空战的目标分配问题是有效的,特别是问题规模较大时更显示出其较快的收敛速度和较高的精度.     

有人机/无人机协同空地攻击效能评估的综合指数模型

研究了未来有人机/无人机协同空地攻击的典型作战模式,然后根据混合编队的作战过程和特点,提出了一种建立有人机/无人机协同空地攻击效能评估的综合指数模型;同时确定了综合指数模型中各分系统和分项能力的评估模型。最后以6种有人机和6种无人机的协同空地攻击效能评估为例计算并检验了模型的可用性。     

超视距反舰导弹打击水面舰艇编队计算模型

对水面舰艇编队采用超视距反舰导弹进行饱和攻击时,需要计算所需导弹数量。文章通过交战模型原型和损伤积累目标毁伤规律的分析,逐步建立超视距导弹对水面舰艇编队攻击作战的概率计算模型,以确定发射导弹数目与目标毁伤程度之间的关系。     

基于机动识别的空战意图威胁建模与仿真

针对目前超视距空战态势评估模型的不足,改进了超视距情况下态势威胁的计算方法,建立了一种基于机动识别和态势预测的意图威胁模型。综合能力威胁、态势威胁、意图威胁和协同因子提出了一种新的空战威胁评估方法。基于机动识别和态势预测的意图威胁评估的结果较好地预测未来时刻敌机的运动,对未来时间内的潜在威胁进行估计,使我方能够准确地对敌做出目标分配。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

SIM—LISP:一个通信网络管理专家系统外壳的设计与实现

本文介绍了笔者为开发名为OONMES的网络管理专家系统所实现的一个简单专家系统工具SIM-LISP。SIM-LISP是一个用C/C++语言来实现的模拟LISP语言的可调用函数集,它短小精巧,速度快,可以完成针对网管专家系统的事实或规则知识的表示、匹配、合一和推理等基本操作,并有与知识对象的连接功能,是网管专家系统内核实现的支撑环境。     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

Al Qaida on the US invasion of Afghanistan in their own words

This article consists of selected translations from captured interviews and dairies of Al Qaida members. The time period covered is from mid-2001 to early 2002 and concerns their operations in Afghanistan. The material clearly conveys a range of emotion, from confident to despondent, as well as efforts to contest the US actions. The first several pages give the reader context and some possible “lessons learned,” but the story(ies) are best told by the Al Qaida members themselves. All names are pseudonyms.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.