Comparisons of renewable warranties

Two types of warranties are commonly applied. There are replacement‐free warranty and pro‐rata warranty. The third warranty is the mixing of the above two. That is it has a replacement‐free stage followed by a pro‐rata stage. In addition to the above classification, warranties can also be a renewable or nonrenewable. No matter which warranty is used, it always incurs certain cost to the manufacturer. Moreover, often manufacturers want to improve the quality of products by burn‐in before delivering them to consumers, and this incurs an extra cost. This article considers the random costs for both burn‐in and renewable warranty, and derives the mean warranty cost. Then the mean costs corresponding to pure replacement‐free warranty, mixing renewable warranty, and pure pro‐rata warranty are compared. Furthermore, the mean costs under the same warranty policy associated with different lifetime distributions of products are also compared. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 91–106, 1999     

Warranty reserves for nonstationary sales processes

Estimation of warranty costs, in the event of product failure within the warranty period, is of importance to the manufacturer. Costs associated with replacement or repair of the product are usually drawn from a warranty reserve fund created by the manufacturer. Considering a stochastic sales process, first and second moments (and thereby the variance) are derived for the manufacturer's total discounted warranty cost of a single sale for single‐component items under four different warranty policies from a manufacturer's point of view. These servicing strategies represent a renewable free‐replacement, nonrenewable free‐replacement, renewable pro‐rata, and a nonrenewable minimal‐repair warranty plans. The results are extended to determine the mean and variance of total discounted warranty costs for the total sales over the life cycle of the product. Furthermore, using a normal approximation, warranty reserves necessary for a certain protection level, so that reserves are not completely depleted, are found. Results and their managerial implications are studied through an extensive example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 499–513, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10023     

Cost analysis of pro rata and free-replacement warranties

This article examines the short run total costs and long run average costs of products under warranty. Formulae for both consumer cost under warranty and producer profit are derived. The results in the case of the pro rata warranty correct a mistake appearing in Blischke and Scheuer [5]. We also show that expected average cost to both the producer and the consumer of a product under warranty depends on both the mean of the product lifetime distribution and on its failure rate.     

Dynamic routing of prioritized warranty repairs

Recent years have seen a strong trend toward outsourcing warranty repair services to outside vendors. In this article we consider the problem of dynamically routing warranty repairs to service vendors when warranties have priority levels. Each time an item under warranty fails, it is sent to one of the vendors for repair. Items covered by higher priority warranty receive higher priority in repair service. The manufacturer pays a fixed fee per repair and incurs a linear holding cost while an item is undergoing or waiting for repair. The objective is to minimize the manufacturer's long‐run average cost. Because of the complexity of the problem, it is very unlikely that there exist tractable ways to find the optimal routing strategies. Therefore, we propose five heuristic routing procedures that are applicable to real‐life problems. We evaluate the heuristics using simulation. The simulation results show that the index‐based “generalized join the shortest queue” policy, which applies a single policy improvement step to an initial state‐independent policy, performs the best among all five heuristics. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

军民融合条件下新型军械装备保修模式研究

针对如何引入承制方优质技术力量支援部队维修保障能力建设这一问题,分析我军现役军械装备维修保障力量、保障模式存在的不足和地方装备维修保障力量的能力特点,明确承制方在军民融合条件下装备维修保障力量中的重要地位.在借鉴国外研究成果的基础上,深入分析和系统设计了我军军械装备的保修模式.结合部队巡检机制,建立了一维免费-按比例收费组合保修的费效模型来验证采购合同中保修条款的合理性.最后进行了案例分析,证明了模型的有效性和实用性.     

Warranty design under buyer and seller risk aversion

This paper provides a framework in which warranty policies for non-repairable items can be evaluated according to risk preferences of both buyers and sellers. In particular, a warranty price schedule is established such that sellers are indifferent among the policies. Given this schedule, a buyer's response is expressed by selecting the price-warranty combination that minimizes disutility. Within this framework, a warranty can be viewed as an instrumet of risk management that can induce more sales and greater profitability. For given utility functions, analytical results for the development of a price schedule are developed. Numerical results illustrate the substitution effects between warranty terms, prices, and risk parameters.     

Stochastic modeling for computational warranty analysis

We examine two key stochastic processes of interest for warranty modeling: (1) remaining total warranty coverage time exposure and (2) warranty load (total items under warranty at time t). Integral equations suitable for numerical computation are developed to yield probability law for these warranty measures. These two warranty measures permit warranty managers to better understand time‐dependent warranty behavior, and thus better manage warranty cash reserves. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Outsourcing warranty repairs: Dynamic allocation

In this paper we consider the problem of minimizing the costs of outsourcing warranty repairs when failed items are dynamically routed to one of several service vendors. In our model, the manufacturer incurs a repair cost each time an item needs repair and also incurs a goodwill cost while an item is awaiting and undergoing repair. For a large manufacturer with annual warranty costs in the tens of millions of dollars, even a small relative cost reduction from the use of dynamic (rather than static) allocation may be practically significant. However, due to the size of the state space, the resulting dynamic programming problem is not exactly solvable in practice. Furthermore, standard routing heuristics, such as join‐the‐shortest‐queue, are simply not good enough to identify potential cost savings of any significance. We use two different approaches to develop effective, simply structured index policies for the dynamic allocation problem. The first uses dynamic programming policy improvement while the second deploys Whittle's proposal for restless bandits. The closed form indices concerned are new and the policies sufficiently close to optimal to provide cost savings over static allocation. All results of this paper are demonstrated using a simulation study. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Warranty costs: An age‐dependent failure/repair model

An age‐dependent repair model is proposed. The notion of the “calendar age” of the product and the degree of repair are used to define the virtual age of the product. The virtual failure rate function and the virtual hazard function related to the lifetime of the product are discussed. Under a nonhomogeneous Poisson process scenario the expected warranty costs for repairable products associated with linear pro‐rata, nonrenewing free replacement and renewing free replacement warranties are evaluated. Illustration of the results is given by numerical and graphical examples. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Optimal maintenance policy for stochastically failing equipment: A diffusion approximation

A system receives shocks at random points of time. Each shock causes a random amount of damage which accumulates over time. The system fails when the accumulated damage exceeds a fixed threshold. Upon failure the system is replaced by a new one. The damage process is controlled by means of a maintenance policy. There are M possible maintenance actions. Given that a maintenance action m is employed, then the cumulative damage decreases at rate r^m. Replacement costs and maintenance costs are considered. The objective is to determine an optimal maintenance policy under the following optimality criteria: (1) long-run average cost; (2) total expected discounted cost over an infinite horizon. For a diffusion approximation, we show that the optimal maintenance expenditure rate is monotonically increasing in the cumulative damage level.     

Replacement models under additive damage

A production system which generates income is subject to random failure. Upon failure, the system is replaced by a new identical one and the replacement cycles are repeated indefinitely. In our breakdown model, shocks occur to the system in a Poisson stream. Each shock causes a random amount of damage, and these damages accumulate additively. The failure time depends on the accumulated damage in the system. The income from the system and the cost associated with a planned replacement depend on the accumulated damage in the system. An additional cost is incurred at each failure in service. We allow a controller to replace the system at any stopping time T before failure time. We will consider the problem of specifying a replacement rule that is optimal under the following criteria: maximum total long-run average net income per unit time, and maximum total long-run expected discounted net income. Our primary goal is to introduce conditions under which an optimal policy is a control limit policy and to investigate how the optimal policy can be obtained. Examples will be presented to illustrate computational procedures.     

Supplier certification and quality investment in supply chains

Global sourcing has made quality management a more challenging task, and supplier certification has emerged as a solution to overcome suppliers' informational advantage about their product quality. This article analyzes the impact of certification standards on the supplier's investment in quality, when a buyer outsources the production process. Based on our results, deterministic certification may lead to under‐investment in quality improvement technology for efficient suppliers, thereby leading to potential supply chain inefficiency. The introduction of noisy certification may alleviate this under‐investment problem, when the cost of information asymmetry is high. While allowing noisy certification always empowers the buyer to offer a menu to screen among heterogeneous suppliers, the buyer may optimally choose only a limited number of certification standards. Our analysis provides a clear‐cut prediction of the types of certifiers the buyer should use for heterogeneous suppliers, and we identify the conditions under which the supplier benefits from noisy certification. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

基于费效分析的装备延伸保修购买决策

保修机制是部队引入承制方装备维修力量的重要途径,延伸保修对装备的寿命周期费用以及承制方保修费用有很大影响。针对军方延伸保修购买决策问题,在对维修策略分析的基础上,综合考虑装备维修费用和可用度,建立了延伸保修购买决策相关模型,结合装备承制方保修成本及军方装备维修费用——效能分析,得到了在不同价格区间内延伸保修购买决策,并给出了特定条件下存在的双赢延伸保修价格区间,最后通过实例验证了模型的有效性。     

Strategic dynamic sourcing from competing suppliers with transferable capacity investment

We study the supplier relationship choice for a buyer that invests in transferable capacity operated by a supplier. With a long‐term relationship, the buyer commits to source from a supplier over a long period of time. With a short‐term relationship, the buyer leaves open the option of switching to a new supplier in the future. The buyer has incomplete information about a supplies efficiency, and thus uses auctions to select suppliers and determine the contracts. In addition, the buyer faces uncertain demand for the product. A long‐term relationship may be beneficial for the buyer because it motivates more aggressive bidding at the beginning, resulting a lower initial price. A short‐term relationship may be advantageous because it allows switching, with capacity transfer at some cost, to a more efficient supplier in the future. We find that there exists a critical level of the switching cost above which a long‐term relationship is better for the buyer than a short‐term relationship. In addition, this critical switching cost decreases with demand uncertainty, implying a long‐term relationship is more favorable for a buyer facing volatile demand. Finally, we find that in a long‐term relationship, capacity can be either higher or lower than in a short‐term relationship. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Supplier‐buyer contracting: Asymmetric cost information and cutoff level policy for buyer participation

We consider the problem of designing a contract to maximize the supplier's profit in a one‐supplier–one‐buyer relationship for a short‐life‐cycle product. Demand for the finished product is stochastic and price‐sensitive, and only its probability distribution is known when the supply contract is written. When the supplier has complete information on the marginal cost of the buyer, we show that several simple contracts can induce the buyer to choose order quantity that attains the single firm profit maximizing solution, resulting in the maximum possible profit for the supplier. When the marginal cost of the buyer is private information, we show that it is no longer possible to achieve the single firm solution. In this case, the optimal order quantity is always smaller while the optimal sale price of the finished product is higher than the single firm solution. The supplier's profit is lowered while that of the buyer is improved. Moreover, a buyer who has a lower marginal cost will extract more profit from the supplier. Under the optimal contract, the supplier employs a cutoff level policy on the buyer's marginal cost to determine whether the buyer should be induced to sign the contract. We characterize the optimal cutoff level and show how it depends on the parameters of the problem. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 41–64, 2001     

Cost analysis of warranty policies

This article analyzes two general warranty policies involving an initial free replacement period, followed by a pro rata period. We examine the short-run total costs and longrun average costs under these policies. Formulas for both consumer costs and manufacturer profits under warranty are derived. We also study the expected number of purchases over the product life cycle under both policies. Bounds for the expected total costs and expected number of purchases are obtained for the case where the failure distribution of the item is new better than used.     

Designing and pricing menus of extended warranty contracts

Extended warranties provide “piece of mind” to a consumer in that product failures which occur after the base warranty expires are rectified at little or no cost. They also provide an additional source of revenue for manufacturers or third‐party providers, such as retailers or insurance providers, and help cultivate consumer loyalty. In this article, we analyze a number of extended warranty contracts which differ in design, including restrictions on deferrals and renewals. With the use of dynamic programming, we compute the optimal strategy for a consumer with perfect information and determine the optimal pricing policy for the provider given the consumer's risk characterization. We also provide insight into when different contracts should be issued. Finally, we illustrate how profits can be dramatically increased by offering menus of warranty contracts, as opposed to stand alone contracts, with the use of integer programming. Surprisingly, risk‐taking consumers provide the greatest benefit to offering menus. These insights can help a company develop a comprehensive warranty planning strategy for given products or product lines. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Acceptance sampling,imperfect production,and the optimality of zero defects

Acceptance sampling is often used to monitor the quality of raw materials and components when product testing is destructive, time-consuming, or expensive. In this paper we consider the effect of a buyer-imposed acceptance sampling policy on the optimal batch size and optimal quality level delivered by an expected cost minimizing supplier. We define quality as the supplier's process capability, i.e., the probability that a unit conforms to all product specifications, and we assume that unit cost is an increasing function of the quality level. We also assume that the supplier faces a known and constant “pass-through” cost, i.e., a fixed cost per defective unit passed on to the buyer. We show that the acceptance sampling plan has a significant impact on the supplier's optimal quality level, and we derive the conditions under which zero defects (100% conformance) is the policy that minimizes the supplier's expected annual cost. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 515–530, 1997     

不完全维修策略的产品保修期研究

以保修期内的保修费用和可用度2个目标作为优化决策依据,权衡厂家和顾客的利益及需求,建立基于改善因子的不完全预防性维修模型,并通过实例确定厂家和顾客共同达到最大满意度的最佳维修间隔期及保修期,验证了模型的实用性。     

TTT transforms and age replacements with discounted costs

The ordinary age replacement problem consists of finding an optimal age at which a unit, needed in a continuous production process, should be replaced in order to minimize the average long-run cost per unit time. Bergman introduced a graphical procedure based on the total-time-on-test (TTT) concept for the analysis of the age replacement problem. In this article, that idea is generalized to the situation of discounted costs. We also study a more general age replacement problem in which we have a form of imperfect repair.