Defense Burden and the Effect of Democracy: Evidence from a Spatial Panel Analysis

ABSTRACT

Do democracies spend less on national defense? This paper provides new evidence of the effect of democracy on defense burden based on a Spatial Durbin Model with panel data for 98 countries for the years 1992–2008. While democracy measured by means of an index variable covering the entire range from perfect democracy to perfect autocracy turns out to be insignificant, dummy variables indicating transition to higher levels of democracy reveal a statistically highly significant negative effect of democracy on a country’s defense burden. Allowing for country-specific effects reveals heterogeneity in the effect of democracy across countries. Apart from the effect of democracy, the estimation results indicate strong spatial dependence of military burdens across countries. Moreover, they provide statistical evidence for a peace dividend, for substitution effects in defense spending and for a negative effect on the military burden for countries when they exhibit a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit.     

Route optimization for multiple searchers

We consider a discrete time‐and‐space route‐optimization problem across a finite time horizon in which multiple searchers seek to detect one or more probabilistically moving targets. This article formulates a novel convex mixed‐integer nonlinear program for this problem that generalizes earlier models to situations with multiple targets, searcher deconfliction, and target‐ and location‐dependent search effectiveness. We present two solution approaches, one based on the cutting‐plane method and the other on linearization. These approaches result in the first practical exact algorithms for solving this important problem, which arises broadly in military, rescue, law enforcement, and border patrol operations. The cutting‐plane approach solves many realistically sized problem instances in a few minutes, while existing branch‐and‐bound algorithms fail. A specialized cut improves solution time by 50[percnt] in difficult problem instances. The approach based on linearization, which is applicable in important special cases, may further reduce solution time with one or two orders of magnitude. The solution time for the cutting‐plane approach tends to remain constant as the number of searchers grows. In part, then, we overcome the difficulty that earlier solution methods have with many searchers. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Programming the procurement of airlift and sealift forces: A linear programming model for analysis of the least-cost mix of strategic deployment systems

A linear programming model for analyzing the strategic deployment mix of airlift and sealift forces and prepositioning to accomplish the composite requirements of a set of possible contingencies is described in this paper. It solves for the least-cost mix of deployment means capable of meeting any one of a spectrum of contingencies, or meeting simultaneous contingencies. The model was developed by RAC as part of the U.S. Army's study program and has been used in analyses of deployment systems conducted in support of the U.S. Army, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Results of analyses have influenced the preparation of long-range plans as well as the formulation of the FY67 Department of Defense budget. The paper gives the background and assumptions of the model, describes the model by means of a simple hypothetical example followed by a selected subset of a complete version, and discusses how the model is used.     

Optimal motion planning in rapid‐fire combat situations with attacker uncertainty

This article provides a modeling framework for quantifying cost and optimizing motion plans in combat situations with rapid weapon fire, multiple agents, and attacker uncertainty characterized by uncertain parameters. Recent developments in numerical optimal control enable the efficient computation of numerical solutions for optimization problems with multiple agents, nonlinear dynamics, and a broad class of objectives. This facilitates the application of more realistic, equipment‐based combat models, which track both more realistic models, which track both agent motion and dynamic equipment capabilities. We present such a framework, along with a described algorithm for finding numerical solutions, and a numerical example.     

I DESIRE,THEREFORE I PROLIFERATE

It is rare to find a well-formulated study that describes the behavioral aspects of leadership in the political realm. Even more infrequent is a combined study of individual behaviors as it applies to a large techno-political issue such as nuclear proliferation. India, Argentina, Australia, and France are used as cases for application of a national identity conception model. The model is based on two dimensions, solidarity and status, that when combined, result in a leader's identification with other nations’ abilities to be a player in the nuclear arms community. While the work is behavioral in context, there is no effort to avoid the technological side of proliferation, so as to provide a balanced review of a complex issue.     

Generalized orienteering problem with resource dependent rewards

We introduce a generalized orienteering problem (OP) where, as usual, a vehicle is routed from a prescribed start node, through a directed network, to a prescribed destination node, collecting rewards at each node visited, to maximize the total reward along the path. In our generalization, transit on arcs in the network and reward collection at nodes both consume a variable amount of the same limited resource. We exploit this resource trade‐off through a specialized branch‐and‐bound algorithm that relies on partial path relaxation problems that often yield tight bounds and lead to substantial pruning in the enumeration tree. We present the smuggler search problem (SSP) as an important real‐world application of our generalized OP. Numerical results show that our algorithm applied to the SSP outperforms standard mixed‐integer nonlinear programming solvers for moderate to large problem instances. We demonstrate model enhancements that allow practitioners to represent realistic search planning scenarios by accounting for multiple heterogeneous searchers and complex smuggler motion. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

An integer programming algorithm for portfolio selection with fixed charges

A mean-variance portfolio selection model with limited diversification is formulated in which transaction and management costs are incorporated as the sum of a linear cost and a fixed cost. The problem is a fixed charge integer programming problem solved by hypersurface search using dynamic programming. Fathoming is performed in the forward pass of dynamic programming so that values of the state variable which correspond to infeasible solutions are eliminated from the tables. This logic permits the solution of problems with 20–30 possible investments.     

Nonlinear integer programming for various forms of constraints

A theoretical and computational investigation is made of the performance of a dynamic-programming-based algorithm for nonlinear integer problems with various types of constraints. We include linear constraints, aggregated linear constraints, separable nonlinear constraints and constraints involving maxima and minima. Separability of the objective function is assumed. The new feature of the algorithm is that two types of fathoming or pruning are used to reduce the size of tables and number of computations: fathoming by bounds and fathoming by infeasibility.     

All-integer linear programming — a new approach via dynamic programming

An exact method for solving all-integer linear-programming problems is presented. Dynamic-programming methodology is used to search efficiently candidate hyperplanes for the optimal feasible integer solution. The explosive storage requirements for high-dimensional dynamic programming are avoided by the development of an analytic representation of the optimal allocation at each stage. Computational results for problems of small to moderate size are also presented.