The Economic Consequences of the Libyan Spring: A Synthetic Control Analysis

Abstract

In 2011 a wave of revolutionary movements, the so-called Arab Spring, spread in the Middle East and North Africa. Libya was one of the most affected countries, ending Gaddafi’s dictatorship after an international intervention and a civil war. This paper assesses the effects that this revolution had on Libyan economy. The analysis is made by means of the synthetic control method. Our estimates for the 2011–2014 period show (i) a cumulative loss in the growth rate of per capita real GDP of 64.15%; (ii) a cumulative loss in per capita real GDP of 56,548 dollars; and (iii) a cumulative loss in the aggregate real GDP of 350.5 billion dollars.     

A Territorial Conflict: Trade-offs and Strategies

We study a war scenario in which the winner occupies the loser’s territory. Attacking a territory increases the chance of winning, but also causes harm, which in turn decreases the territory’s value (i.e. the reward of winning). This paper highlights the effects of this trade-off on the equilibrium strategies of the warring states in a contest game with endogenous rewards. Providing both static and dynamic models, our analysis captures insights regarding strategic behavior in asymmetric contests with such conflict.     

Cinematic representations of the Mexican Narco War

This essay provides an overview of the eras of Mexican cinema followed by an analysis of 10 Spanish-language narco cinematic representations, an overview of the eras of American cinema followed by an analysis of 10 English language narco cinematic representations, and a conclusion that compares and contrasts the Mexican and US narco war cinematic experience. Due to divergent national trajectories – Mexico is engulfed in narco violence and corruption while the United States is not – more differences than similarities exist between these national cinematic genres. Dark spirituality themes are also increasingly evident in more recent narco war films.     

Factors influencing the modernization of military-investment economic appraisal systems

Budgetary restrictions resulting from the present international economic crisis have tightened the need to improve efficiency in defense spending, leading to the armed forces having to undertake their duties with fewer resources. Previous reports on the subject have looked into the determining factors and effects of military spending but very few studies have analyzed the determinants for the modernization of the methodology for assessing efficiency. Thus, using a multiple regression statistical model, we have analyzed the appraisal systems in place in 28 countries to identify factors that influence the development of economic assessment of military expenditure. Our findings have revealed three factors that may favor the improvement of appraisal systems with regard to military expenditure: the quality of governance, size of the armed forces, and unemployment levels.     

Economic impact of the ministry of defence’s budget: methodological design and results for the Spanish economy

This article analyses the economic impact of the expenditure budget of the Spanish Ministry of Defence (MoD) and its Autonomous Agencies (AA), distinguishing direct, indirect and induced effects. The input–output methodology is used to find intersectoral effects on the rest of the economy. The article quantifies the economic impact in terms of production, gross value added (GVA), employed population, tax revenue, and also in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Spain in 2010. The results show that the activity of the MoD and AA generates 1.2% of the country’s GDP and 1.7% of total employment in that year.     

Mixed rules in multi‐issue allocation situations

Multi‐issue allocation situations study problems where an estate must be divided among a group of agents. The claim of each agent is a vector specifying the amount claimed by each agent on each issue. We present a two‐stage rule. First, we divide the estate among the issues following the constrained equal awards rule. Second, the amount assigned to each issue is divided among the agents in proportion to their demands on this issue. We apply the rule to two real‐world problems: the distribution of natural resources between countries and the distribution of budget for education and research between universities.     

A characterization of optimal base‐stock levels for a multistage serial supply chain

In this article, we present a multistage model to optimize inventory control decisions under stochastic demand and continuous review. We first formulate the general problem for continuous stages and use a decomposition solution approach: since it is never optimal to let orders cross, the general problem can be broken into a set of single‐unit subproblems that can be solved in a sequential fashion. These subproblems are optimal control problems for which a differential equation must be solved. This can be done easily by recursively identifying coefficients and performing a line search. The methodology is then extended to a discrete number of stages and allows us to compute the optimal solution in an efficient manner, with a competitive complexity. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 32–46, 2016     

The concept of logistics derived from Clausewitz: All that is required so that the fighting force can be taken as a given

This article assesses the existing literature on logistics in war, concluding that there is no satisfactory conceptual definition of logistics. It proposes a concept of logistics derived from Clausewitz's theory of war to fill that void. This is presented as a derivation because Clausewitz's distinction between (1) the use of the fighting forces (tactics and strategy) and (2) all other activities in war that were required so that forces could be taken as a given. The latter, left unnamed by Clausewitz, corresponds to a concept of logistics that proves to be an analytical peer to Clausewitz's categories of politics, tactics and strategy.     

Crime facilitation purposes of social networking sites: A review and analysis of the ‘cyberbanging’ phenomenon

There have been growing claims in media circles and law-enforcement settings that street gangs and criminal groups are turning to Internet-based social networking sites for various reasons ranging from the showcasing of their images and exploits to the suspected recruitment of members. The present study investigates whether such a trend is, in fact, in place. The presence of street gangs on these Internet sites is referred to as cyberbanging. While there is some anecdotal evidence suggesting that gangs are turning to social networking sites, there is little available research on exactly how street gangs and criminal groups use the Internet. Our main argument is that gang culture is in many ways an individualized phenomenon and this feature ties in directly with recent assessments of the Internet as a setting that is governed by a process of networked individualism. This theoretical link between the individualized gang setting and the presence of gang members on social networking sites helps us understand why recruitment is improbable even in a context where people are openly diffusing their image and exploits to a growing number of Internet users. The empirical segment of this research adds to this general outlook. Based on a keyword search of over 50 street gang names, the three main social networking sites (Twitter, Facebook, and MySpace) were monitored for street gang presence. Results illustrate that gang presence on social networking sites is linked primarily to promoting a general gang or street culture through individual displays. In regard to the visitors to such sites, there is no evidence that they are being tricked or manipulated in any way. They are, however, showing their curiosity in regard to such groups and, for those who share their comments and opinions, signs of support are evident. Thus, whereas criminal gangs are not proactively using the Internet to convert anyone into being gang members, social networking sites are creating a new venue for people who share or are sensitive to the values underlying street gang lifestyle to come together. These sites essentially create a new convergence setting for gang members to interact with a wider number of people who would probably never have been exposed to their lifestyles and exploits through physical interactions. The study's conclusion extends these findings toward further research in this area, as well as outlining the more relevant implications for law-enforcement monitoring of this growing phenomenon.