开展系列课程学习指导帮助学生学会学习

在扼要介绍开展系列课程学习指导研究的基础上,重点论述了课程学习指导的目的、意义及主要内容.提出了军事工程院校系列课程学习指导应具有的特色,以及在实施学习指导进程中应把握的几个基本观点.     

On allocating one active redundancy to coherent systems with dependent and heterogeneous components' lifetimes

This article studies coherent systems of heterogenous and statistically dependent components' lifetimes. We present a sufficient and necessary condition for a stochastically longer system lifetime resulted by allocating a single active redundancy. For exchangeable components' lifetimes, allocating the redundancy to the component with more minimal path sets is proved to produce a more reliable system, and for systems with stochastic arrangement increasing components' lifetimes and symmetric structure with respect to two components, allocating the redundancy to the weaker one brings forth a larger reliability. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the theoretical results as well. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 335–345, 2016     

船海复合场景面元化快速电磁建模方法及SAR成像仿真

在微波高频段,海面背景或海上船类目标往往具有电大尺寸和复杂精细的结构,这给船海复合场景的电磁建模带来巨大的计算负担。为简化计算,基于海面电磁散射模型面元化思想和图形电磁学,结合计算耦合场的四路径模型,提出一种电大尺寸船海复合场景电磁散射的快速计算方法。在保证海面与目标复合散射场的计算准确性前提下,提高计算效率。仿真并分析不同雷达参数下动态海面与目标的雷达散射截面,计算结果与实测数据以及精确数值方法结果的良好一致性验证了方法的准确性。将复合散射快速计算方法应用于合成孔径雷达成像仿真,仿真结果验证了方法的有效性。     

一种改进的雷达探测概率计算方法

基于对指挥自动化系统日常积累的雷达情报数据进行处理,提出了一种改进的雷达探测概率计算方法。综合考虑了目标在飞行过程中,RCS随着其与雷达相对位置的变化而变化的因素,对各个高度层上的航迹按距离取样间隔分段,统计各分段内的观测点数和发现点数,从而计算各距离取样间隔内的发现概率,再根据目标相对雷达的俯仰角和方位角对距离取样间隔中心点的探测距离进行修正。     

Does military spending stimulate growth? An empirical investigation in Italy

This paper investigates the effect of military burden on economic growth and extends previous works on the optimal size of government expenditure by exploring how external threat affects the preferences of the households and, in turn, economic growth. Post World War II Italian data are used to estimate nonlinear growth models using time-series semi-parametric methods. The estimates show that total government and civilian burdens are productive, whereas, military burden has significant effects on economic growth through the expenditure for peacekeeping missions, which reduces the insecurity in the home country. This may justify economically the current not negligible budget devoted to peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.     

时间跨度对GPS坐标序列噪声模型及速度估计影响分析

选取全球范围内72个基准站的坐标序列,采用改进的赤池信息量准则、贝叶斯信息量准则对不同噪声模型组合进行噪声分析,得到基准站坐标序列的最优噪声模型及速度参数,探讨时间序列跨度对噪声模型及速度估计的影响。结果表明,基准站坐标序列噪声模型不能由单一的噪声模型表述,其呈现出多样性特征,主要表现为幂律噪声、高斯马尔科夫噪声、闪烁噪声+白噪声特征,且三坐标分量表现出不同的噪声特性;随着时间跨度的增加,坐标时间序列的最优噪声模型、GPS站速度及其不确定度逐渐由发散趋于收敛,随机游走噪声模型的比重有所增加。结果表明10 a以上的时间跨度是较为理想的噪声模型估计尺度。     

Hilbert谱分析和平稳度

提出了本征模式函数IMF成员相应的幅度及频率时间函数的计算方法。由函数的Hilbert谱可获得相关的边缘谱,边缘谱确定了几乎连续的能量分布,从而提供了通过每个频率值测量总能量的方法。根据能量-频率-时间分布,就可以定量确定平稳性,平稳性是物理过程的一个复杂属性,其由平稳度DS和统计平稳度DSS进行度量,同时给出了DS和DSS的计算公式。     

On the effectiveness of top‐down strategy for forecasting autoregressive demands

We investigate the relative effectiveness of top‐down versus bottom‐up strategies for forecasting the demand of an item that belongs to a product family. The demand for each item in the family is assumed to follow a first‐order univariate autoregressive process. Under the top‐down strategy, the aggregate demand is forecasted by using the historical data of the family demand. The demand forecast for the items is then derived by proportional allocation of the aggregate forecast. Under the bottom‐up strategy, the demand forecast for each item is directly obtained by using the historical demand data of the particular item. In both strategies, the forecasting technique used is exponential smoothing. We analytically evaluate the condition under which one forecasting strategy is preferred over the other when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand time series for all the items is identical. We show that when the lag‐1 autocorrelation is smaller than or equal to 1/3, the maximum difference in the performance of the two forecasting strategies is only 1%. However, if the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand for at least one of the items is greater than 1/3, then the bottom‐up strategy consistently outperforms the top‐down strategy, irrespective of the items' proportion in the family and the coefficient of correlation between the item demands. A simulation study reveals that the analytical findings hold even when the lag‐1 autocorrelation of the demand processes is not identical. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Exact expected values of variance estimators for simulation

We formulate exact expressions for the expected values of selected estimators of the variance parameter (that is, the sum of covariances at all lags) of a steady‐state simulation output process. Given in terms of the autocovariance function of the process, these expressions are derived for variance estimators based on the simulation analysis methods of nonoverlapping batch means, overlapping batch means, and standardized time series. Comparing estimator performance in a first‐order autoregressive process and the M/M/1 queue‐waiting‐time process, we find that certain standardized time series estimators outperform their competitors as the sample size becomes large. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

对一种混沌加密图像方法的破译研究

介绍了利用混沌映射系统进行保密通信的理论依据。分析了一种利用混沌动力学方程所形成的混沌序列来对图像进行加密的方案,并用程序语言予以实现。针对这种一维混沌加密算法,在加密方程、参数和初始值完全未知的前提下,运用相空间重构法和穷举法对其进行了破译研究并成功将其破译。总结了加密和破译方法的优缺点,提出了一种抗破译能力更强的加密方案。