基于备件需求预测的两步法理论?

在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。     

Signal‐to‐interference‐plus‐noise ratio estimation for wireless communication systems: Methods and analysis

The Signal‐to‐Interference‐plus‐Noise Ratio (SINR) is an important metric of wireless communication link quality. SINR estimates have several important applications. These include optimizing the transmit power level for a target quality of service, assisting with handoff decisions and dynamically adapting the data rate for wireless Internet applications. Accurate SINR estimation provides for both a more efficient system and a higher user‐perceived quality of service. In this paper, we develop new SINR estimators and compare their mean squared error (MSE) performance. We show that our new estimators dominate estimators that have previously appeared in the literature with respect to MSE. The sequence of transmitted bits in wireless communication systems consists of both pilot bits (which are known both to the transmitter and receiver) and user bits (which are known only by the transmitter). The SINR estimators we consider alternatively depend exclusively on pilot bits, exclusively on user bits, or simultaneously use both pilot and user bits. In addition, we consider estimators that utilize smoothing and feedback mechanisms. Smoothed estimators are motivated by the fact that the interference component of the SINR changes relatively slowly with time, typically with the addition or departure of a user to the system. Feedback estimators are motivated by the fact that receivers typically decode bits correctly with a very high probability, and therefore user bits can be thought of as quasipilot bits. For each estimator discussed, we derive an exact or approximate formula for its MSE. Satterthwaite approximations, noncentral F distributions (singly and doubly) and distribution theory of quadratic forms are the key statistical tools used in developing the MSE formulas. In the case of approximate MSE formulas, we validate their accuracy using simulation techniques. The approximate MSE formulas, of interest in their own right for comparing the quality of the estimators, are also used for optimally combining estimators. In particular, we derive optimal weights for linearly combining an estimator based on pilot bits with an estimator based on user bits. The optimal weights depend on the MSE of the two estimators being combined, and thus the accurate approximate MSE formulas can conveniently be used. The optimal weights also depend on the unknown SINR, and therefore need to be estimated in order to construct a useable combined estimator. The impact on the MSE of the combined estimator due to estimating the weights is examined. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

基于子协方差阵加权的三星时差定位数据综合

为提高三星时差定位系统的定位精度,需要将系统在不同时间得到的多个定位估计结果进行统计综合。本文提出了一种基于子协方差阵加权的定位数据综合算法。该算法根据单点定位精度分析结果,先利用定位误差协方差的二维子阵的逆矩阵作为权矩阵,通过加权最小二乘估计目标空间三维坐标位置中的其中两维,再利用WGS-84地球模型求解另一维坐标。仿真实验表明,相比已有算法,所提新算法可以明显提高定位精度。     

信息熵和判断矩阵的专家聚类赋权法

为了降低专家聚类赋权过程中由排序向量引起的不确定性和判断矩阵引起的矛盾性,提高权值分配的精确性,提出了基于信息熵和判断矩阵相结合的专家聚类赋权法。该方法采用聚类分析原理,对排序向量进行分类,根据分类结果、信息熵值和一致性比率确定专家权重系数。实例分析表明:基于信息熵和判断矩阵相结合的专家聚类赋权法在具体应用中得到的结果离期望值更近,说明该算法有效可行。     

混合指数分布模型的Bayes分析

针对截尾试验数据的情况,给出了二元混合指数分布模型的平均寿命和可靠性函数的严格的Ｂａｙｅｓ点估计,并运用最大熵准则给出了可靠性函数的近似的Ｂａｙｅｓ置信下限估计。     

指数分布下可靠性参数的样条经验 Bayes 估计

基于可靠性参数的验前密度函数的样条密度估计，本文推导出指数分布失效率和可靠性函数的经验Ｂａｙｅｓ估计，并采用数学仿真将其与传统的Ｂａｙｅｓ方法，如Ｇａｍ ｍ ａ 验前分布的情况，进行了比较。仿真结果表明，本文的方法是有效的     

多源情报信息在空中目标敌我识别中的应用

根据部队的实际使用情况,考虑到诸多理论成果的应用现状,提出一种简洁实用的关联识别算法,即根据多信源、多因子的综合判断给出目标的属性。该算法还首次给出了复杂空域的计算方法。     

由新比旧好元件组成的指数寿命系统的特性研究

文中研究了由独立的新比旧好元件组成的指数寿命系统,证明了:(i)对单调系统,它本质上是由指数寿命的元件串联而成;(ii)对系统的寿命是元件寿命的情形,除了一个元件是指数的外,其余元件的寿命分布均在零处退化。     

寿命试验持续时间的预测

工程界中诸多电子元器件的寿命都可以看作或近似看作是服从指数分布的,只有经寿命试验掌握各类电子元器件寿命的分布情况,才能对整个电子系统的可靠度有较充分的认识,从而对整个电子系统中的电子设备进行合理布局,优化控制,使其在实际应用中最大程度地发挥其作用。分别给出服从单参数指数分布的样本在寿命试验的早期结果上预测寿命试验的总持续时间的精确与近似方法的证明,并对两种预测方法在不同情况下的预测结果进行比较。