Impacts of logistics information on sales: Evidence from Alibaba

Facing fierce competition from rivals, sellers in online marketplaces are eager to improve their sales by delivering items faster and more reliably. Because logistics quality can be known only after a transaction, sellers must identify effective ways to communicate logistics information to consumers. Drawing on the accessibility-diagnosticity framework, we theorize that the sales impacts of logistics information depend on its relative diagnostic value. Using data on 1493 items with 505,785 consumer reviews from an online marketplace, we examine how sales are affected by three information sources for logistics services: online word of mouth (WOM) about logistics, self-reported logistics services, and expected delivery time. We use an instrumental variable method to address the endogeneity issue between sales and WOM. We find that, ceteris paribus, consumers give more weight to WOM about logistics and delivery time when they make purchase decisions but less weight to self-reported logistics service. The effects of logistics information on sales are asymmetric for large and small sellers.     

惯性导航在线标定滤波技术

在整个惯性导航标定过程中,滤波性能的好坏会直接影响到在线标定的精度。首先描述了惯性导航的误差累积等系统特性;然后详细介绍了几种典型的滤波算法和鲁棒滤波技术所取得的理论成果及各自优缺点,并阐述了在线标定中的应用情况;接下来分析了在线标定滤波技术的发展趋势,介绍了一种新型滤波方法;最后提出在线标定滤波技术的研究发展方向。     

基于RNN汉语语言模型自适应算法研究

深度学习在自然语言处理中的应用越来越广泛。相比于传统的n-gram统计语言模型,循环神经网络(Recurrent Neural Network,RNN)建模技术在语言模型建模方面表现出了极大的优越性,逐渐在语音识别、机器翻译等领域中得到应用。然而,目前RNN语言模型的训练大多是离线的,对于不同的语音识别任务,训练语料与识别任务之间存在着语言差异,使语音识别系统的识别率受到影响。在采用RNN建模技术训练汉语语言模型的同时,提出一种在线RNN模型自适应(self-adaption)算法,将语音信号初步识别结果作为语料继续训练模型,使自适应后的RNN模型与识别任务之间获得最大程度的匹配。实验结果表明:自适应模型有效地减少了语言模型与识别任务之间的语言差异,对汉语词混淆网络进行重打分后,系统识别率得到进一步提升,并在实际汉语语音识别系统中得到了验证。     

A stochastic assignment problem

There are n boxes with box i having a quota value Balls arrive sequentially, with each ball having a binary vector attached to it, with the interpretation being that if X_i = 1 then that ball is eligible to be put in box i. A ball's vector is revealed when it arrives and the ball can be put in any alive box for which it is eligible, where a box is said to be alive if it has not yet met its quota. Assuming that the components of a vector are independent, we are interested in the policy that minimizes, either stochastically or in expectation, the number of balls that need arrive until all boxes have met their quotas. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 62:23–31, 2015     

Evaluating the potential effects from probabilistic selling of similar products

In this article, we consider an online retailer who sells two similar products (A and B) over a finite selling period. Any stock left at the end of the period has no value (like clothes going out of fashion at the end of a season). Aside from selling the products at regular prices, he may offer an additional option that sells a probabilistic good, “A or B,” at a discounted price. Whenever a customer buys a probabilistic good, he needs to assign one of the products for the fulfillment. Considering the choice behavior of potential customers, we model the problem using continuous‐time, discrete‐state, finite‐horizon dynamic programming. We study the optimal admission decisions and devise two scenarios, whose value functions can be used as benchmarks to evaluate the demand induction effect and demand dilution effect of probabilistic selling (PS). We further investigate an extension of the base MDP (Markov Decision Process) model in which the fulfillment of probabilistic sales is uncontrollable by the retailer. A special case of the extended model can be used as a benchmark to quantify the potential inventory pooling effect of PS. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the overall profit improvement, and the effects from adopting the PS strategy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 604–620, 2014     

基于数据仓库的装备维修经费综合预算管理信息系统设计

针对我军装备维修经费综合预算管理的内容和特点,提出了以综合预算数据库为基础、以预算分析数据仓库为中心、以操作数据存储为支撑、以联机分析处理和数据挖掘为手段的装备维修经费综合预算管理信息系统的结构模型,阐述了综合预算数据库和预算分析数据仓库设计、预算数据分析与数据挖掘模型构建的基本内容,为装备维修经费综合预算管理信息系统开发提供了新的体系框架。     

环境参数在线辨识及其在滑翔段制导中的应用

针对助推滑翔导弹,提出基于飞行环境参数在线辨识的滑翔段数值预测校正制导方法。综合考虑大气密度和气动系数对导弹运动的影响,引入滑翔段综合环境参数,利用扩展Kalman滤波方法对综合参数进行在线辨识。基于在线辨识结果,利用渐消记忆递推最小二乘方法在线建立环境参数预测模型,并利用最新辨识结果进行模型的在线修正。设计了纵向和横向制导律,并基于环境参数在线预测模型进行落点预测,以克服飞行环境扰动对落点预测精度的影响。进行了大气密度非定常扰动下的制导仿真,以及密度和气动参数随机扰动下的Monte Carlo仿真。仿真结果表明:环境参数在线预测模型能准确预报飞行环境参数,制导方法对飞行环境扰动具有较强的鲁棒性。     

On competitive analysis for polling systems

Polling systems have been widely studied, however most of these studies focus on polling systems with renewal processes for arrivals and random variables for service times. There is a need driven by practical applications to study polling systems with arbitrary arrivals (not restricted to time-varying or in batches) and revealed service time upon a job's arrival. To address that need, our work considers a polling system with generic setting and for the first time provides the worst-case analysis for online scheduling policies in this system. We provide conditions for the existence of constant competitive ratios, and competitive lower bounds for general scheduling policies in polling systems. Our work also bridges the queueing and scheduling communities by proving the competitive ratios for several well-studied policies in the queueing literature, such as cyclic policies with exhaustive, gated or l-limited service disciplines for polling systems.     

嵌入式在线航空摄影测量方法

为满足空间数据实时处理的需求,提高航空摄影测量系统在线处理能力,研究一种在线摄影测量的理论与方法,运用嵌入式架构设计一种在线摄影测量系统,使用可编程门阵列(FPGA)方法、高级精简指令集机器组合数字信号处理器(ARM+DSP)方法等嵌入式计算技术建立专门的硬件运行环境,移植并优化现有算法到嵌入式系统中,实现摄影测量数据的在线处理。机载航摄实验结果表明,该方法能够实现对摄影测量数据进行快速稳定的在线处理,验证了运用嵌入式架构的在线摄影测量的可行性,把摄影测量的处理效率提高到了一个更高的水平,同时也进一步拓宽了摄影测量技术的应用领域。     

FPGA、ARM DSP嵌入式技术的在线航空摄影测量方法*

为满足空间数据实时处理的需求,提高航空摄影测量系统在线处理能力,本文研究一种在线摄影测量的理论与方法,基于嵌入式架构设计一种在线摄影测量系统,使用FPGA、ARM DSP等嵌入式计算技术建立专门的硬件运行环境,移植并优化现有算法到嵌入式系统中,实现摄影测量数据的在线处理。机载航摄实验结果表明,本文方法能够实现对摄影测量数据进行快速稳定的在线处理,验证了基于嵌入式架构的在线摄影测量的可行性,把摄影测量的处理效率提高到了一个更高的水平,同时也进一步拓宽了摄影测量技术的应用领域。