改革开放前毛泽东先行探索社会主义的经验教训——纪念毛泽东诞辰120周年

毛泽东早在20世纪50年代,就开始对适合中国国情的社会主义建设道路进行了一系列开创性探索。他基于中国经济文化落后的基本现状,对“什么是社会主义”、“如何建设和发展社会主义”等问题进行了艰苦探索,并提出许多富有创造性的思想。毛泽东探索的过程是极其艰辛的,其中既有成功的经验,也有失败的教训。今天总结这些经验教训,对于我们更好地坚持和发展中国特色社会主义,具有重大的历史意义和现实意义,同时这也是坚持贯彻习近平“两个不能否定”的基本要求。     

基于时间序列图书借阅的预测与分析

以武警工程大学图书馆2009～2012年的读者借阅流量为基础,基于年、月等时间序列,分别建立了相应读者借阅流量的分布图,对分布规律进行了分析总结,为今后图书馆的管理决策提供了理论依据。     

测时差定位的误差分析及表征方法

测时差无源定位具有很高的测量精度,但是时差定位在不同的定位区域定位误差差异非常大,更为重要的是误差区域分布形状复杂,用传统的误差半径和误差面积都很难表征具体点误差在军事上的意义.引入了概率椭圆来表示目标的概率分布,可较好地表征不规则的误差分布,有很强的军事应用价值.并给出了目标处于不同位置时的概率椭圆算法.     

空舰导弹火控系统精度分析研究

介绍了一种空舰导弹火控系统动态精度试验的试验方法、误差分析理论和方法.用导弹火控系统的数据测量设备获取火控系统输出射击诸元参数实际值,再测量载机和靶船的位置和运动参数,经真值解算模型解算出射击诸元参数标准值.将实际值与标准值进行比较与分析,即可得知空舰导弹火控系统的动态精度是否满足要求.此方法已成功地应用于导弹火控系统精度飞行试验中.     

Sink the Bismarck (with luck?)

This paper describes a stochastic simulation of one of the key naval operations in World War II, and shows how the result of that operation might have differed considerably from the historical outcome. The simulation demonstrates that it is never possible to predict with confidence the results of military operations involving a few high‐value units.     

Determinants of southeast asian military spending in the post-cold war era: a dynamic panel analysis

This study examines the demand of military expenditure among Southeast Asian countries since the end of the Cold War. By using a dynamic panel approach, I find that military spending in the region has been jointly determined by economic, strategic and socio-political factors. In particular, surging foreign debt burdens and the rise of China – two regional issues that gained prominence in the post-Cold War period – show their significance as determinants along with other generalist variables. The results therefore ask for the development of even-handed and region-sensitive approaches to studying military build-up in the region of Southeast Asia.     

A PRODUCTIVITY AND EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF THE SECURITY AND DEFENCE TECHNOLOGICAL AND INDUSTRIAL BASE IN SPAIN

This study analyses the performance of the productivity of the main industrial subsectors composing the security and defence technological and industrial base (SDTIB) in Spain from 1996 to 2009. Accordingly, we have used the non-parametric data envelopment analysis and bootstrapping techniques to compute Malmquist productivity indexes that allow us to split productivity growth into efficiency change and technical progress. The results obtained show productivity improvement in the SDTIB as a whole due mainly to advances in technology and to a lesser extent to the contribution of technical efficiency. The bootstrap approach yields further evidence, as for many cases, productivity growth or decline, is not statistically significant. This is the first time a study of this kind has been carried out on the production process of this sector in Spain.     

模糊BCC模型及其在武器装备方案选择中的应用

在模糊环境下,为了选择最适合我军作战需求的武器装备方案,首先基于可信性理论和模糊期望值模型,建立了一类新的模糊期望值BCC（简记为EBCC）模型;然后利用期望值的线性性质,把所建立的EBCC模型转化为其等价形式;最后,利用EBCC方法构建了武器装备方案选择问题的综合评价模型,以雷达装备方案选择为例,从相对有效性评价和EBCC期望有效决策单元的排序两个方面,验证了方法的：正确性和可行性,为武器装备方案选择提供科学依据．     

罐顶板声发射检测及其稳定最不利点有限元分析

罐顶板的缺陷检测对于评估立式拱顶罐的使用状况有着重要的意义,它的应用有助于更好地掌握立式拱顶罐的安全状况与可靠程度。将声发射法应用于罐顶板材料的检测,并对相关的设备仪器及操作流程进行介绍。为了给检测结果提供对照和参考,利用有限元分析法对拱顶瓜皮板的稳定最不利点进行了初步分析和定位。分析结果表明：顶板中上部肋板围成的区域可能会产生稳定最不利点,该部位应作为检测时重点关注的区域。