一种修正的冲突证据融合方法

对于冲突证据,D-S证据理论无法使用甚至无法得出正确的结果,进而引发了专家学者的研究。针对该问题,提出了一种新的冲突证据融合方法,建立了多传感器综合可信度的计算模型,根据综合可信度得到多传感器的合成结果,采用D-S证据理论对合成结果进行组合,既解决了高冲突问题,又解决了低冲突问题。最后通过仿真验证了该方法的有效性。     

冲突与融合：民族教育的文化解析

各民族文化与教育在发展过程中都面临着冲突与融合的问题。本文从多元文化视角下民族教育的内涵入手，通过对文化冲突的深入剖析，总结了民族教育中文化冲突的表现形式，得出了要通过多元文化整台教育的理念以及改革学校教育来融合民族教育中的文化冲突。     

公安边防部队处置无直接利益冲突群体性事件对策研究

无直接利益冲突群体性事件有5个特点,即间接性、特定性、辐射性、关联性、暴力性.引发无直接利益冲突群体性事件的原因主要有4个方面：一是我国正处于社会转型期,贫富差距突出,矛盾多发;二是基层公共权力机关公信力下降和利益诉求渠道阻塞;三是法律意识淡薄和社会认同感降低;四是心理匿名感和信息的快速传播.研究应对无直接利益冲突群体性事件对策具有重要的现实意义.     

The importance of predecessor centers of sovereignty and processes of state formation in explaining secession

A range of theories have sought to explain and predict secession with varying degrees of success. Arguing that a disproportionate focus upon the seceding group as the unit of analysis has frustrated the development of a comprehensive theoretical framework that is universally valid, this article highlights the role of predecessor institutions of governance and the failure of states to successfully incorporate these as an important, but neglected, causal factor in the study of secession. The inclusion of pre-state institutions of governance and processes of state formation not only results in a more complete, and therefore accurate, explanatory account of secession, but also explains why some regions have been more prone to secession than others.     

In pursuit of accountability during and after war

ABSTRACT

This article aims to identify and elaborate the causes and ramifications of applying transitional justice, in particular accountability measures, to situations of war. It focuses on the correlations between peace and justice – and hence an important perspective on the question ‘how do wars end’. The article seeks to understand some of the main challenges associated with pursuing accountability for crimes committed in contemporary forms of conflict, including civil wars and abuses committed by major powers in armed conflict.     

Grievance and the Kashmiri diaspora

Grievance theories that emphasize injustice as the primary cause of secessionist violence offer valuable insights into the motivations of sponsors and participants. However, they face a difficulty in explaining the participation and support of geographically dispersed populations of co-ethnics (diaspora) that is not shared by rival theories that instead emphasize self-interest. This article uses the Kashmiri diaspora in Britain to examine how appeal to nationalist factors of shared identity, mutual sympathy and common understandings might allow grievance theories to effectively explain diaspora support. It concludes that, while a hybrid grievance-nationalist model might offer a more accurate and nuanced explanatory account of secessionist violence, it does so at the cost of conceptual clarity. Finally, the article addresses the implications for states and strategies to reduce the mobilization of diaspora in order to deny secessionists’ valuable assistance.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Setting a place at the table: ending insurgencies through the political process

This article argues that, under certain conditions, allowing insurgents into the political process – through elections or government posts – can be a useful tool in the peace process and can help end insurgencies. However, bringing insurgents into the political process is unlikely to end insurgencies on its own, particularly if insurgents, the government, or the population believes that force is still a viable means of defeating the opponent and changing the status quo. The article begins with a brief overview of the causes of insurgency and on conflict resolution for internal wars. The article then considers two examples of insurgents that have entered the political process – the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in Northern Ireland and Hezbollah in Lebanon – and the differing degrees of success in transforming these insurgents to non-violent participants in the political process. It concludes by suggesting how insurgents can be brought into the political process as part of conflict resolution and the implications for Afghanistan.     

Changing civilian support for the Maoist conflict in India

Prolonged domestic political conflicts change over time. The Maoist conflict in India which began in the late 1960s is one such conflict. Over time, the ‘old’ Maoist conflict has become a ‘new’ Maoist conflict. Important changes have occurred both in the macro and micro processes of the conflict. Some of these changes include the strategic relocation of the Maoist bases, a shift in the class character of the conflict, the nature of civilian support, and the rebels' methods of operation. While in the 1960s, the conflict was involved in land redistribution with the aim of annihilating class enemies, the recent conflict focuses on caste identities. In addition, it is intrinsically linked with territorial control and local political competition. This has automatically led the Maoists to become involved with local criminal networks and also local business networks based. This involvement has led to financial resources for the conflict. Furthermore, it has forced the local population to become linked with the conflict. Studying these changes is important, especially for counterinsurgency policies.