Maintaining peace in a neighbourhood torn by separatism: the case of Satun province in southern Thailand

While separatist-related conflict has re-emerged in southern Thailand, there is one predominantly Muslim border province that has remained outside of the conflict. Satun province has been conspicuously unaffected by the Malay-Muslim separatist movement, despite its shared history and ethnic origins with the conflict-affected provinces. In contrast to Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat, the process of state penetration in Satun was gradual and comparatively less coercive, leading to relative stability and encouraging political and economic integration. This comparative study analyzes the history of cooperative state–minority relations and political stability in Satun province, and draws important lessons directly applicable to the unrest in neighbouring provinces.     

Security sector stabilisation in counterinsurgency operations: the case of Afghanistan

This article argues that the debate on security sector reform (SSR) needs to be taken further by taking into consideration the fact that, even though the SSR concept was not originally developed as an element in stabilising states undergoing an insurgency, it is very much being used for exactly that. When conducting counterinsurgency with a focus on the creation of stability, the baseline will ultimately have to be security sector stabilisation (SSS) as a precondition for complete SSR implementation. However, the two must be connected to avoid them undermining each other. This is important if a comprehensive approach to programme implementation and especially sustainability is to guide the programme, and not just isolated ‘train and equip’ stand-alone projects that do not solve either the initial need for stabilisation or the long-term need for accountable security forces. Currently, in Afghanistan the surge for security by the international military is in danger of overtaking the other elements of the SSR, thereby undermining the primary end state and thus risking laying the wrong foundation for the long-term process of SSR.     

证据推理方法中不完备信息影响因素分析

不确定条件下的不完备信息分析是多属性决策中的主要内容之一,Yang提出的证据推理方法可以较好地处理这类信息。研究了证据推理方法中不完备信息的影响因素,包括规则中的不完备信息,规则的权重以及规则的一致性,并以此为基础分析了评估结果中不完备信息的取值范围,得出了初步结论:评估结果中不完备信息的信度必然小于作为输入的规则中不完备信息中的较大者,但不一定大于其中的较小者。进一步分析了规则一致性的逻辑意义和几何意义,指出规则的一致性实际描述了规则之间的冲突程度。     

Explaining the impact of militancy on Iran–Pakistan relations

ABSTRACT

Sectarian militants have for years launched attacks from Pakistan across the border to Iran. Finding sanctuary in a neighbouring country can make the difference between success and failure for militants. Conventional wisdom holds that a lasting transnational militancy challenge would typically create serious interstate conflict. Militancy has triggered armed encounters between Iran and Pakistan. This article argues that despite some tension militancy has resulted in deeper cooperation in the ambivalent dyad. Both states’ overarching security concerns, having exhausted other options, the believed involvement of third-party states, and economic potential, have moderately alleviated negative pressure caused by militancy.     

纳卡冲突无人机效能分析及启示

大量无人机和巡飞弹的参战成为亚美尼亚与阿塞拜疆在纳卡地区持续四十多天的冲突的焦点,引发世界各国对无人机作战应用的关注。本文回顾了冲突过程,对比了两国战损情况,介绍了主要参战无人机的技术指标与性能优势。无人机在冲突中能够实时获取高清战场图像,发挥情报侦察优势,对重点军事目标进行精准而有效的打击,发挥了较高的作战效能;同时,采取灵活高效的诱饵探测、饱和攻击以及心理威慑等战术,能够进一步提升无人机作战能力。通过分析纳卡冲突中无人机在性能、体系运用方面的不足,本研究提出应根据不同作战需求,在低烈度战争中发挥无人机性价比优势,现代空中作战开展近距支援作战,面向未来战争要在目标识别等方面发展智能信息处理技术,结合无人机不同功能构建新型无人机战术与作战体系,以实现无人机智能化作战。     

面向验证的启发技术设计

采用有效的人工智能技术提高验证效率正成为解决验证复杂性的手段之一。本文针对STG（State Transition Graph）中状态枚举数据量大的问题,提出隐含遍历的状态映射策略。并根据状态存储和电路结构特征,重点研究了HASH表状态冲突处理、函数域限定、函数不相交分解和混合搜索等启发技术策略。     

基于蒙特卡洛法的无人机飞行冲突解脱安全评估

冲突解脱技术是无人机与有人机共域飞行的前提保障。针对目前缺少对冲突解脱技术安全评估的方法,提出运用蒙特卡洛法对飞行冲突进行仿真模拟,得出冲突解脱算法的安全效率。提出基于改进蚁群算法的冲突解脱技术,实现无人机的飞行冲突解脱;利用蒙特卡洛法,对飞行冲突过程进行大规模仿真,计算冲突解脱效率,与基本蚁群算法进行对比,并从安全角度对结果进行分析。提出的思路可为未来无人机空域运行安全评估体系的构建提供一种理论参考。     

Walking a tightrope: the International Criminal Court and conflict prevention in Africa

Many African countries gained political independence in the 1960s. This era of independence came with promises and great expectations of economic, political and social development. Fifty years later, it is certain that the promises and expectations of independence have not been easily realised. Perennial violent conflicts have continued to ravage many countries in Africa, causing the catastrophic breakdown of law and order. Therefore, one of the major issues in conflict resolution discourse in Africa is how to develop functional mechanisms for the prevention of violent conflicts. This article examines the capacity of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to act as a mechanism for conflict prevention in Africa. Notwithstanding the doubts and uncertainties associated with the impact of law on conflict transformation, this article argues in the main that the ICC contributes to conflict prevention in Africa by expressing global norms of international law, challenging the culture of impunity in some countries, contributing to general deterrence, speedily intervening in some violent conflicts, and contributing to building some records of atrocities by identifying who did what.     

The African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis: conceptual breakthrough or anti-imperialist phantom?

The creation of an African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crisis (ACIRC) is a sign of Africa's willingness to take its destiny into its own hands. Presented as a reaction to the slowness of the development of the African Standby Force (ASF), it is also a response to some of the ASF's conceptual weaknesses. This decision reflects a wish to establish an instrument better equipped to deal with the challenges Africa is facing. Departing from the (sub)regional logic of the ASF results from a desire to take into account the transnational nature of threats, while its enlarged mandate is meant to offer Africa the capacity to intervene in all kinds of conflicts, including by undertaking peace enforcement activities. But the obstacles on the road towards the actual creation and mobilisation of this capacity should not be underestimated. These include material difficulties, but also political tensions, between ‘small’ and ‘big’ states as well as between the African Union and subregional organisations. The risk then is high that the ACIRC, whose announcement came as a reaction to France's intervention in Mali, ends up joining the ranks of the many ‘anti-imperialist’ phantoms haunting the history of the Organization of African Unity/African Union (OAU/AU). Confronted by events considered ‘neocolonial’ initiatives, African actors have indeed traditionally reacted by launching grand projects that never got off the ground. However, by actually establishing this new instrument, they may also demonstrate that times have definitively changed.     

The Kashmir conflict in South Asia: voices from Srinagar

This article looks at the Kashmir conflict in South Asia, which has been going on since 1947, when India and Pakistan became independent from British colonial rule. After looking at some historical background, the article looks at both the external dimension as well as the internal dimension of the conflict. The external dimension tends to focus on Indo-Pak relations over Kashmir and the internal dimension looks at India's repressive state policies within the state of Kashmir. This article uses Mary Kaldor's “New War” thesis as a theoretical framework to understand the situation and pays special attention to the conflict's very complex and multifaceted nature. The article argues that although the levels of violence have differed from time to time in the region since 1947, today the conflict seems to have less to do with Indo-Pak relations or the external side of things and has more to do with the internal dimension and India's undemocratic ways within Kashmir. Today, Kashmir is one of the most militarised conflict zones in the world. The stationing of the Indian military and paramilitary forces in the region has only exacerbated the situation since it is the security personnel who cause much of the problem. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act gives these security forces extraordinary powers in the region, which they often abuse. The armed forces have no real understanding of the local culture or sympathy for local religious sentiments. Poverty, corruption, administrative failure, police brutality, identity politics and human rights abuses are some of the key features associated with this conflict. Methodologically, a number of interviews were carried out with the local people in the region recently. From the data gathered through the interviews, it is very obvious that the people still feel very oppressed and that the situation is still very volatile, fraught with uncertainty. Finally, after making an assessment of the situation, the article tries to suggest methods of peaceful building and conflict management as the way forward.