基于排队论的反舰导弹突防概率研究

根据水面舰艇对海导弹攻击中作战指挥的需要,提出了基于排队论中随机服务理论的反舰导弹突防概率解算模型.综合研究了目标舰艇编队采用各种手段进行抗击帮助条件下,反舰导弹突防概率的计算问题,并且结合想定装备参数进行了算例分析.为指挥员实施导弹攻击提供辅助决策和量化支持.     

Warranty claims modeling

A company wishes to estimate or predict its financial exposure in a reporting period of length T (typically one quarter) because of warranty claims. We propose a fairly general random measure model which allows computation of the Laplace transform of the total claim made against the company in the reporting interval due to warranty claims. When specialized to a Poisson process of both sales and warranty claims, statistical estimation of relevant quantities is possible. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing automobile sales and warranty claims data from a large car manufacturer for a single car model and model year. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Bernard Fall and Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare in Indochina

This article assesses Bernard Fall’s concept of Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare in Indochina between 1953 and 1958. It also investigates differences in the conceptualization of Revolutionary Warfare between Fall and proponents of French military doctrine known as la guerre révolutionnaire. The last component of the article considers limits of Fall’s influence on counterinsurgency doctrine.     

一种Turbo码中伪随机交织器的盲识别方法

目前Turbo码的构造中广泛应用的是伪随机交织器,要完成对Turbo码的识别,必不可少地需要得到伪随机交织器的参数。针对伪随机交织器的识别问题,通过引入扩频通信中PN序列盲估计的方法,利用功率谱二次处理法求出交织长度即m序列周期,再用特征分解方法对序列进行估计。仿真实验表明,该方法能够求出m序列的相关参数,完成对伪随机交织器的识别需求。     

Attrition through a partially coordinated area defense

An area defense consists of several groups that act independently, i.e., do not communicate with each other. Each group has a fixed number of defenders and a controller that allocates these defenders optimally against the individual attackers comprising an attack. We analyze the effectiveness of this partially coordinated defense against a simultaneous attack of known size in which all attackers are considered to be equally lethal. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

基于磨损量的数学模型及其数值模拟与分析

通过建立及讨论摩擦片磨损量的数学模型,用随机数学的方法给出了该模型的概率分布,并初步讨论了该分布的一些基本特征,通过数值模拟还给出了其独特的分布特征,如与正态分布的关系与区别,从而也为摩擦片失效分析提供了新的模型与方法.     

基于随机冲击的相关竞争失效可靠性评估

针对电子产品在工程实践中受随机冲击应力的影响及多失效模式的问题,以累积冲击和极限冲击来描述产品的冲击过程,考虑失效模式相关性并建立了随机冲击下产品竞争失效模型。以具有自然耗损和突发耗损特点金属化膜脉冲电容器为对象,进行了可靠性对比分析,验证了模型的合理性和有效性,为遭受复合应力影响的电子产品的可靠性评估提供了一种新方法。     

三维均匀化理论预测多孔混凝土等效弹性模量

应用多尺度渐进展开的均匀化理论,推导三维均匀化理论的有限元解法,求解复合材料等效弹性系数。假设多孔混凝土由光滑均匀一致的球孔与水泥石基质组成,提出改进的随机投放方法,生成三维均匀化理论求解的随机单胞模型。以聚苯乙烯泡沫(EPS)混凝土为数值算例,生成6组不同体积分数的EPS混凝土随机单胞模型,通过三维均匀化理论的有限元法计算得到其等效弹性模量。计算结果表明:随机单胞模型能反映细观的非均质性,三维均匀化理论的有限元法计算得到的等效弹性模量变化趋势比较符合Miled的试验结果。     

要地反巡探测系统漏警率的建模及评估

要地反巡探测系统的设计需根据作战指标确定系统能力,此问题涉及到系统的建模及效能评估。应用随机服务理论,对要地反巡探测系统的搜索过程建立了M/D/C模型。根据M/D/C模型计算公式,以AR320地基监视雷达、地空联合探测的搜索过程为算例,验证了搜索模型的正确性,给出了目标漏警率、搜索波束数量与目标出动强度的关系。此模型扩展性良好,研究结果可对系统的设计和评价有所借鉴。     

基于增强型MAD单特征量地磁匹配导航算法

为了提高基于MAD(mean absolute differences,平均绝对差)算法的单特征量地磁匹配导航系统的定位精度,研究分析了影响MAD算法的地磁匹配定位精度的主要因素,引入RANSAC(random sample consensus,随机抽样一致)鲁棒算法与粗精匹配结合的分层搜索策略来提高匹配精度及缩短匹配时间.仿真试验结果表明,该算法能够在一定程度上提高单特征量的地磁匹配的精度与稳定性,并大大缩短匹配时间.