武器精度截尾SPOT 检验最大风险计算

就正态圆分布的武器命中精度的截尾序惯验后加权检验犯两类错误概率上界的计算问题,指出了目前沿用的计算公式的错误,推导了新的计算公式,并给出了算例,分析了计算结果的合理性;同时,指出了目前截尾点选取方法存在的问题     

利用验前信息的一种序贯检验方法——序贯验后加权检验方法

序贯验后加权检验方法是Bayes 统计观点在假设检验中的运用。本文提出了该方法的一般理论,给出了当总体的分布参数具有验前信息时的序贯检验方法。文中确定了决策区的划分,同时讨论了序贯截尾方案,给出了检验中可能犯两类错误的概率的上界,并将一般理论应用于产品的可靠性检验和再入飞行器随机落点的精度鉴定。由于运用了验前信息,因此能有效地在少量试验之下进行统计假设检验。本文所提供的方法对于昂贵产品试验结果的统计评定具有普遍意义。     

药物效用鉴定的序贯抽样检验方法和条件推导

给出了制定药物效用鉴定的序贯抽样检验方案,对未用的同类药品进行随机抽样,利用抽样结果,对剩下的N-n个样品的性能进行推断,得到判断药品是否失效的抽样方法以及有效的抽样截断方案,在减小抽样量的前提下,准确的判断药物是否有效.并对该序贯抽样性能的优劣与固定样本最优检验方法进行了比较,得到在犯同样错误的前提下,序贯抽样检验的样本量比固定样本最优检验的样本量小的多.     

一种高效的显式模型检验方法

随着软硬件系统规模和功能的不断扩充,状态空间爆炸问题严重影响了模型检验的进一步发展与应用,成为验证大规模系统的瓶颈.在显式模型检验工具Murphi的基础上,针对其可达状态空间组织存在的问题进行改进,提出了基于整型指针与Fibonacci散列的可达状态空间组织方法,实现了一个高效的显式模型检验原型系统,在确保验证正确的同时有效缩短了验证时间,并能在系统规范不可满足的情况下给出反例,有助于系统设计人员快速定位错误.理论分析和实验结果表明了本方法的有效性.     

软件测试的故障模型

故障模型是测试的基础,也是一个测试方法成熟的重要标志.软件的错误表现为2个方面:①计算结果错误;②系统"死机".导致第1类错误的故障相对来说是比较容易检测的.导致系统死机的故障其后果是严重的,这类故障由于一般其检测概率较小,也往往难以检测.死循环故障是最常见的能引起系统死机的故障,但这种故障由于其复杂性难以对其模型化,同时在许多情况下,死循环故障也比较容易暴露.对C 中几种能导致系统死机的典型故障进行了分析,这种故障的检测其意义重大,将这些典型的故障组合在一起,就构成了面向软件系统死机故障的故障模型.     

基于激励机制的装备采办风险总量控制

针对装备采办中的风险总量控制,提出一种激励方式来提高承包商的积极性。在单目标风险控制模型的基础上,建立了多目标风险控制模型,推导出了激励机制下风险控制的最优合同公式。对激励机制中存在的两类错误进行了理论分析和实例验证,得出了两类错误对收益的影响,并在成本控制中得到了应用,有效地提高了装备采办的质量和效率,为军方决策者在装备采办中提供了合理的参考依据。     

基于博弈论的装备采办成本控制问题研究

从武器装备采办的理论需求出发,以博弈论为理论工具,对武器装备采办过程中的生产成本控制问题进行了分析;建立了基于激励的生产成本控制模型,并对成本控制模型的特点进行了分析和解释;针对军方在激励合同执行过程中有可能出现的2类错误,对成本控制模型进行了优化。在非对称信息条件下,优化后的成本控制模型不但能有效减少2类错误的发生,而且可提高军方装备采办效用,减少代理方合同风险。     

基于单发地空导弹测试数据的武器精度检验

在地空导弹命中精度检验问题中,提出了充分利用单发导弹的测试数据进行命中精度的检验。该思想是利用χ2检验法对导弹速度的瞬时误差（系统误差）的方差进行检验,并给出了在测出导弹7、9、11个轨迹点条件下的2类风险临界值表,为武器精度检验提供了一定依据。     

内存泄漏的一种静态分析方法

内存泄漏是C程序中常见的错误.从面向具体错误类型的测试思想出发,结合静态测试的特点,给出了一种静态查找此类错误的方法.此方法已经实现,并将应用于实际的测试过程.     

社会效益是检验人们社会性认识的标准

邓小平思想的一个深刻内涵,就是以社会效益作为检验我们路线、方针、政策等社会性认识是否正确的标准.社会效益标准的提出和运用是对实践标准的具体化.1983年10月,在党的十届二中全会上针对少数人搞精神污染,邓小平同志指出:“不是都拥护实践是检验真理的唯一标准吗?一些同志应当看看他们的错误言论,有害作品,低级表演在人民,在青年中间产生了什么影响,什么后果嘛.”在这里可以看出实践标准和社会效益标准的有机结合.在另一次讲话中邓小平同志明确指出“思想文化教育卫生部门都要以社会效益为一切活动的准则,它们所属的企业也要以社会效益为最高准则.”邓小平建设有中国特色的社会主义理论贯穿着一个重要的思想——社会效益是检验社会认识真理性的标准.     

无人机集群反制技术剖析

无人机集群作战具有作战效能高、战场生存能力强、效费比极高的巨大优势,将给传统防空系统带来巨大挑战。现有反无人机集群技术大多来源于反无人机技术,但反平台与反集群存在显著差异,必须针对无人机集群自身技战术特点,加强对精确/高效/低成本的集群反制技术研究。因此,本文以剖析无人机集群反制技术的可行性为出发点,首先,从反无人机集群作战视角,将无人机集群划分为无自主时空协同型(Ⅰ类)、半自主编组协同型(Ⅱ类)、全自主任务协同型(Ⅲ类)三种类型,明确Ⅱ类无人机集群为主要反制对象;其次,深入分析无人机集群的技术弱点与战术劣势,以此作为无人机集群反制技术可行性的关键切入点;最后,梳理出七大类有效的无人机集群反制技术,并对其可行性进行分析,以期为未来无人机集群反制技术发展方向提供参考。     

Progressive Type‐II censoring and coherent systems

A new connection between the distribution of component failure times of a coherent system and (adaptive) progressively Type‐II censored order statistics is established. Utilizing this property, we develop inferential procedures when the data is given by all component failures until system failure in two scenarios: In the case of complete information, we assume that the failed component is also observed whereas in the case of incomplete information, we have only information about the failure times but not about the components which have failed. In the first setting, we show that inferential methods for adaptive progressively Type‐II censored data can directly be applied to the problem. For incomplete information, we face the problem that the corresponding censoring plan is not observed and that the available inferential procedures depend on the knowledge of the used censoring plan. To get estimates for distributional parameters, we propose maximum likelihood estimators which can be obtained by solving the likelihood equations directly or via an Expectation‐Maximization‐algorithm type procedure. For an exponential distribution, we discuss also a linear estimator to estimate the mean. Moreover, we establish exact distributions for some estimators in the exponential case which can be used, for example, to construct exact confidence intervals. The results are illustrated by a five component bridge system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 512–530, 2015     

Linear estimation of the location and scale parameters from type 11 censored samples from symmetric unimodal distributions

Estimates of the location and scale parameters, linear in the order statistics of a Type II censored or complete sample, from a continuous symmetric unimodal distribution satisfying certain conditions are obtained. Their coefficients are explicit functions of the expectations of the order statistics or population quantiles from the known parameter-free standardized distribution. Linear estimates with simpler coefficients are also obtained. The theorems state the complete sample case, and the singly and doubly censored cases. The more general case, the multiple censoring, is an extension of these cases and is indicated. All the estimates obtained are asymptotically efficient in the strict sense.     

语义树方法及其可靠性和完备性

Ａｎｄｒｅｗｓ在《ＡｎＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｔｏＭａｔｈｅｍａｔｉｃａｌＬｏｇｉｃａｎｄＴｙｐｅＴｈｅｏｒｙ：ＴｏＴｒｕｔｈＴｈｒｏｕｇｈＰｒｏｏｆ》一书中给出的语义树方法是一种能直接适用于句子集的反驳方法,但其中关于语义树方法的可靠性和完备性定理（３２０１）及其证明是错误的。本文通过例子指出并纠正了这一错误,同时对修正后的可靠性和完备性定理给出了详细的证明。     

Determining confidence bounds for highly reliable coherent systems based on a paucity of component failures

A computationally simple method for obtaining confidence bounds for highly reliable coherent systems, based on component tests which experience few or no failures, is given. Binomial and Type I censored exponential failure data are considered. Here unknown component unreliabilities are ordered by weighting factors, which are firstly presumed known then sensitivity of the confidence bounds to these assumed weights is examined and shown to be low.     

基于支持向量机的威胁判断模型

目标威胁判断是防空作战中一项重要内容,在建立目标威胁模型时,首先要挑选特征参数,分析了影响威胁度的若干因素.这里采用Rough理论中知识约简方法选择目标的特征参数;支持向量机是一类新型机器学习方法,由于其出色的学习能力,该技术已成为当前国际机器学习界的研究热点,利用支持向量机建立了威胁判断模型,给出了实例和解决此问题的支持向量机源程序.通过实例与神经网络法的结果进行了比较,结果表明支持向量机比较精确和简单.     

空空导弹导引头角预定精度研究

空空导弹导引头角预定是重要的导弹发射控制参数,其有效的计算精度分析,是导弹可靠截获和跟踪目标的重要保证。基于前置追踪攻击原理,给出了空空导弹导引头角预定的计算模型,建立了机载雷达误差对导引头角预定精度影响的误差分析仿真结构,并对仿真计算结果进行了讨论。     

军机驾驶员通讯用语语音信号及其清晰度影响因素分析

建立了军机驾驶员通讯用语词汇库及与故障相关的通讯用语词汇库,并对其中的主要词汇进行了汉语语音语谱分析。对影响军机驾驶员语音清晰度(可懂度)的有关因素——喉头送话器、座舱噪声、塔台录音进行了较详细的分析,得出主要影响因素为喉头送话器和座舱噪声,指出应改进送话器的方向且不能采用常规的固定参数滤波器来滤除座舱噪声。     

Designing acceptance sampling schemes for life testing with mixed censoring

Mixed censoring is useful extension of Type I and Type II censoring and combines some advantages of both types of censoring. This paper proposes a general Bayesian framework for designing a variable acceptance sampling scheme with mixed censoring. A general loss function which includes the sampling cost, the time‐consuming cost, the salvage value, and the decision loss is employed to determine the Bayes risk and the corresponding optimal sampling plan. An explicit expression of the Bayes risk is derived. The new model can easily be adapted to create life testing models for different distributions. Specifically, two commonly used distributions including the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution are considered with a special decision loss function. We demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to models with Type I or Type II censoring. Numerical examples are reported to illustrate the effectiveness of the method proposed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Stochastic framework for partially degradation systems with continuous component degradation‐rate‐interactions

Many conventional models that characterize the reliability of multicomponent systems are developed on the premise that for a given system, the failures of its components are independent. Although this facilitates mathematical tractability, it may constitute a significant departure from what really takes place. In many real‐world applications, system components exhibit various degrees of interdependencies, which present significant challenges in predicting degradation performance and the remaining lifetimes of the individual components as well as the system at large. We focus on modeling the performance of interdependent components of networked systems that exhibit interactive degradation processes. Specifically, we focus on how the performance level of one component affects the degradation rates of other dependent components. This is achieved by using stochastic models to characterize how degradation‐based sensor signals associated with the components evolve over time. We consider “Continuous‐Type” component interactions that occur continuously over time. This type of degradation interaction exists in many applications, in which interdependencies occur on a continuum. We use a system of stochastic differential equations to capture such “Continuous‐Type” interaction. In addition, we utilize a Bayesian approach to update the proposed model using real‐time sensor signals observed in the field and provide more accurate estimation of component residual lifetimes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 286–303, 2014