PART III: CHALLENGING THE UNCONVENTIONAL WISDOM ON DETERRENCE

In reply to Ward Wilson's response, the author notes that Wilson's current position about the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is relatively agnostic compared to his original essay and that he now uses a much finer brush to define his qualms about nuclear deterrence. The perfectibility, rather than the existence of nuclear deterrence, is the paramount issue. The author also contends that in remaining fixated on civilian deaths and using Hiroshima and Nagasaki as his litmus test, Wilson fails to adequately consider whether there are other potential nuclear harms—fundamentally different in scale, scope, and moral and existential ramifications—that potentially can terrify societies enough to make nuclear deterrence a perfect or nearly perfect mode of security.     

A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN DEFENCE SPENDING AND GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A REPLY

Hatzinikolaou raises a number of issues related mainly to the econometrics of our paper. These issues are categorized according to the three stages of econometric analysis: specification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. We categorize our reply to his comments accordingly.     

The Pitfalls of Cross-National Comparison in Conflict Research

Professor Joseph Soeters shows admirable ambition in comparing national styles of conflict resolution and is extremely eager to draw historical lessons from such comparative exercises. However, he gets entangled in national mythmaking as he underestimates the complexity of comparative history of this kind. Particularly the establishment of true causal links between national (strategic) cultures and actual tactical behaviour on the ground is far more difficult than he suggests in his recent book chapter and his reply to my article in this journal.     

Grammar but No Logic: Technique is Not Enough – A Response to Nagl and Burton

Abstract

In issue 33/1 of The Journal of Strategic Studies, John Nagl and Brian Burton were provided with the opportunity to respond to the observations we made in our article, ‘Whose Hearts and Whose Minds? The Curious Case of Global Counter-Insurgency’, which appeared in the same issue. Nagl and Burton's reply, however, did not overtly address the points raised in our article, but instead offered a re-statement of the precepts of classical counter-insurgency (COIN). While we certainly recognise the value of counter-insurgency methods in conflicts such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan, Nagl and Burton's reply overlooks our original concerns about the limited utility of neo-counter-insurgency thinking outside these environments and the dangerous political implications it contains. They further ignore our core contention that a narrow preoccupation with theatre-specific technique has profound limitations when offered as a universal panacea to address complex transnational threats.     

“民主社会”与“完满个人”——杜威和斯宾塞教育目的观比较

教育目的对教育活动来说至关重要,正确地认识了教育目的教育活动也就有了方向和动力。杜威和斯宾塞生活的时代相近,他们的教育目的观也存在着明显的相似性。具体表现在二者都受到传统教育目的观的深刻影响,同时在整体上都体现出了鲜明的人道主义色彩。但是,二者教育目的观的思路上存在着明显的差异,杜威认为教育是从个人到进步的社会再从进步的社会到发展的个人如此循环上升的过程,民主社会是基点和归宿;而斯宾塞虽也是从个人出发,但其目的并非指向社会而依旧回归个人,主张为个人完满生活做准备。因此,在具体的教育视角、教学内容、课程形式上二者存在着差异。     

Forces or Force及其他——与杨静教授《浅谈武警执勤用语的翻译》商榷

对杨静教授《浅谈武警执勤用语的翻译——与（武警执勤实用英语）编者商榷》一文中行文规矩,以及提出《武警执勤实用英语》所举一些词语的翻译错误,提出了异议。杨文的商榷中,未指明商榷对象究竟来自哪本教材,且所列举有待商榷的译名和原文大多未注出处;杨文试图纠正问题,但读罢反令人更加迷惑;杨文认为“警卫对象”、“敌对分子”和“会客室”等词语翻译不恰当的说法,并不确当。     

战术数据链网络同步技术的一种改进算法

现有的Link16网络同步算法,假定了询问与应答报文的传播时间相同,导致E值误差较大。提出一种改进算法,待同步JU相继向网内不同NTR发送询问报文,NTR分别发回应答报文。同时NTR间也发送往返计时报文,通过联立计算,提高时间误差的精度。改进算法的仿真分析结果,验证了新同步算法的可行性和有效性。     

Do Distinct (National) Operational Styles of Conflict Resolution Exist?

This article contains a reply to a previously published paper on the use and abuse of the so-called Dutch approach to counterinsurgency. In addition to commenting on this paper, the article constitutes an argument to initiate more comparative studies in the field of military and strategic studies. Only comparative studies will help to better understand the effectiveness of military force in preventing, containing and solving violent conflicts.     

美国危机管理对我国的启示

美国是世界上危机处理经验十分丰富的国家,我国应当借鉴美国的危机管理机构、管理机制和管理经验,建立一套适应我国国情的、行之有效的危机管理机制。     

试论纪伯伦《先知》中的死亡观及其成因

纪伯伦在《先知》中表达出的死亡意识是一个应该关注的问题。他认为,死亡意识是与生命、神以及爱紧密相连的;而对其人生经历、宗教信仰和哲学背景的考察,则是死亡观形成原因必要的梳理。     

Strategic Defense and Attack for Series and Parallel Reliability Systems: Reply to Rejoinder

Kovenock and Roberson's (2012a, b) replication of Hausken’s (2008a) equations and parameter restrictions do not enhance our insight into the defense and attack of reliability systems. This reply intends to fill the remaining understanding gaps.     

Economic Performance And Terrorist Activity In Latin America

We investigate the link between economic performance and terrorism for 18 Latin American countries from 1970 to 2007, taking into account the potentially complex nature of this link. Panel causality analysis findings indicate that during this period, terrorism had no causal effect on economic growth. By contrast, we find that growth reduced terrorism in the less developed but not in the higher developed Latin American economies. We argue that group-specific differences (linked to patterns of economic development) govern this causal heterogeneity. From a series of negative binomial regressions we gain additional support for our findings, while also identifying further determinants of terrorism.     

The Two Techniques of O. Henry＇s

O. Henry is the founder of American modern short story. What makes his sto-ries enjoy mostt popularity is his own styles ---- (1) Reasonable artistic exaggeration. (2)Unexpected ending. In this article I emphatically comment its value in the two stories : TheRomance of a Busy Broker and The Last Leaf. Up to now there is still much in Henry‘s method that we can make use of beneficially.     

Grand Strategy and the Graveyard of Assumptions: Britain and Afghanistan, 1839–1919

This article comprises a reply to those who seek to use the British historical experience in Afghanistan in order to draw parallels with current operations in that country. It argues that, while the conceptual and physical response to the issue of Afghanistan on the part of Empire policy-makers during the period 1839–1919 was characterised by periods of indecision and mistaken assumptions, their grasp of strategic principles allowed the formulation of a series of Afghan policies that would serve to protect and indeed enhance British interests in the region for over a century and which stand in stark contrast to the seemingly incoherent Afghan strategy articulated by the current British government.     

反恐怖劫持事件中不同目的谈判语言的运用策略

在反劫持谈判中,为了能够解除现场的那种僵持、对抗、凝固的情形,谈判者就得运用不同目的的语言来使劫持者向预期的方向前进。从理论上讲,每一名谈判人员都希望通过和平的方式解决劫持事件。因此,我们必须学会运用反恐谈判讨价的语言、拖延的语言、劝降的语言和摊牌的语言,来使劫持事件得到和平解决或为武力解救行动创造良好时机。     

The Maudslay Connection,the Reid Bequest and Forsyth’s Early Percussion Ignition Systems

Abstract

Neal and Back identify that, in 1808, Maudsley, of 78 Margaret Street, was appointed Primer Magazine Maker to the Forsyth Patent Gun Company. Blackmore confirms in a short entry in A Dictionary of London Gunmakers that Henry Maudslay/Maudsley supplied the company with magazine primers. Henry Maudslay was the most influential mechanical engineer of his generation and his factory formed the nursery for many later engineering greats. This connection between Alexander Forsyth and his new company with Maudslay and his company is therefore significant. Determining how these two giants may have interacted and how Maudslay may have influenced the design and manufacture of the new percussion ignition systems is of interest. This interest is increased when we read that Forsyth observes in one of his letters to James Brougham, the day-to-day manager of the business, that ‘Maudsley’s account is most unreasonable in every respect’. In order to understand where Maudslay may have influenced the design and the detail of their manufacture, it is necessary to examine the early evolution of Forsyth’s percussion ignition devices. These are primarily those of the Reid Bequest of 1929 held in the Royal Armouries and those collected by Colonel Colt. As it has been two hundred years since their original creation this requires careful object study to establish the chronology of the objects and obtain an insight into the relationship between Forsyth and Maudslay and their innovations.     

Technical note: Characterization of binomial semivalues through delegation games

Semivalues are allocation rules for cooperative games that assign to each player in a given game a weighted sum of his marginal contributions to all coalitions he belongs to, where the weighting coefficients depend only on the coalition size. Binomial semivalues are a special class of semivalues whose weighting coefficients are obtained by means of a unique parameter. In particular, the Banzhaf value is a binomial semivalue. In this article, we provide an axiomatic characterization for each binomial semivalue. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

公元四百零三年——论陶渊明的归隐

陶渊明是中国诗歌史上最伟大的诗人之一,他在公元403年所作的诗,占了其一生诗作的六分之一强,表达了其归隐的强烈欲望,结合陶渊明一生的主要经历,便可知其归隐的主要原因乃是晋室情结,而他决定归隐的年份即此年.     

Whistleblowing in the Irish Military: The Cost of Exposing Bullying and Sexual Harassment

Whistleblowing has gained increasing media attention over the past 40 years, as incidents of abuse and wrongdoing associated with businesses, religious institutions, the media and politics have come to light. In this article, we investigate the consequences of a military whistleblower’s actions for both himself and the military institution that he was a part of. The case concerns former army officer Dr. Tom Clonan and his findings concerning the bullying and sexual harassment of female personnel in the Irish Defence Forces at the turn of the century. As these revelations came to light over 17 years ago we are able to examine their consequences for the military since that time.