U.S. policy on preventive war and preemption

In the aftermath of September 11, 2001 and Hurricane Katrina, the United States government has spent tens of billions of dollars to improve the nation's ability to respond to a natural disaster or terrorist attack, but the emphasis on immediate first response has left many long-term environmental, political, and technological challenges unaddressed. Although a dirty bomb attack is unlikely to yield the same amount of physical devastation and death as caused by Katrina or a nuclear weapon, the social, psychological, and economic impact would be enormous. At present, however, the United States lacks the technology necessary to decontaminate a large, densely populated urban area under time, political, and economic constraints. This article reviews past cleanup experiences and current decontamination capabilities to consider the long-term implications of a dirty bomb, identifies weaknesses in America's existing response capabilities, notes possible areas of political friction, and considers the implications of the failure to adequately prepare. Having the appropriate decontamination techniques established and long-term plans in place before an incident occurs will significantly improve the government's ability to protect public and environmental security, establish a viable decontamination strategy, allow residents to return to their homes, and get the local economy back on its feet.     

“费太因”式恐怖袭击的主要特点及对策

＂费太因＂式恐怖袭击手段残忍、破坏性大、轰动性强,已经成为恐怖分子实施暴力破坏活动的重要手段。科学地分析＂费太因＂式恐怖袭击的主要特点,为有效打击此类恐怖袭击寻找科学的方法和措施,从而给恐怖分子以沉重的打击。     

Symbolism and Sacrifice in Terrorism

This article compares an ETA shooting incident in the Basque lands with an IRA bombing in Northern Ireland with the aim of examining the often overlooked role of symbolism in ethnic terrorists acts. The study of symbolism is important because it plays a part in impelling the terrorist to act and then in defining the targets of their actions. And one of the most important symbolic acts is that of sacrifice, particularly the blood sacrifice whereby acts of violence link with religion and with man's collective being. The article examines how the importance of symbolism to ethnic nationalist terrorist arises from the particular cultural, social and religious milieu in which they live. This analysis suggests that the terrorist act itself is symbolic of the terrorist cause and should not be only understood in purely rational 'means-ends' terms.     

An Opportunity Structure for Terrorism: Moderate Leadership Departures in Nationalist Movements

Why does terrorist violence escalate from some ethnic groups but not others? According to theoretical insights, many groups endure conditions that should spur on terrorist campaigns, but in reality only some carry them out. In contrast to studies emphasising motivations, this article constructs a framework centred on opportunity structures that contributes to our understanding of the rise of terrorism waged along ethnic lines. It argues that beyond grievances or other motivations, terrorist campaigns develop from communities when moderate political leaders depart from their positions in nationalist movements, causing terrorists to fill the subsequent power vacuum, while little terrorism occurs when leaders do not relinquish the nationalist agenda. This argument is evaluated with evidence from the Tamil and Muslim cases in the context of the Sri Lankan Civil War. Tamil United Liberation Front leaders left the Tamil nationalist movement in the early 1980s, enabling the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s rise to dominate the nationalist agenda for three decades, while the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress did not relinquish the Muslim cause, which in part precluded the normalisation of violence in the community.     

Deterrence of Nuclear Terror

Nuclear proliferation, lax security standards in the storage of fissile materials, and international apathy in the prosecution of terrorists make nuclear terror a serious threat to the United States and its allies, yet no doctrine of retaliation has been established. To decrease the probability of terrorist use of nuclear weapons, a doctrine of retaliation—a negligence doctrine—should be considered. If the United States can distinguish whose fissile material was used for a nuclear terror event, a negligence doctrine would prescribe retaliation against that state. Where the proximate cause—terrorists—is unavailable for deterrent retaliation, deterring an accessible mediate cause—a state that has failed to adequately secure its fissile material—is one of a few effective alternatives. In the absence of such a negligence doctrine, the United States and its allies are increasingly vulnerable to a nuclear terror attack and the ensuing negative consequences.     

Globalization's Bastards: Illegitimate Non-State Actors in International Law

The international system has great difficulty in dealing with illegitimate non-state actors such as transnational terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates. This is due to two main factors: the quality and quantity of influence these illegitimate actors have obtained in an era of globalization, and the fact that international law considers only individual criminals and terrorists as subjects, rather than the entire illegitimate enterprise, and does not adequately link individuals, enterprises and states to more nuanced and complex forms of sponsorship of illegal activities. This work offers an outline for tools that should be embedded in the fabric of international law and agreements, to sustain credibility against illegal non-state actors, to hold accountable  sponsors of illegality and to reinforce the legitimacy of globalization.     

The Race that wasn't

ABSTRACT

Graham Farmelo's new book on the early British nuclear weapon program assembles a fascinating cast of characters in a gripping narrative. It particularly succeeds at illustrating the importance of “atomic energy” imagery in the United Kingdom well before the discovery of fission, and provides nuanced insights into Churchill's handling of issues relating to the atomic bomb and scientific expertise. However, in arguing that the British had a “lead” on the manufacture of atomic bombs that was “lost” to the United States during the early Manhattan Project, the book overstates its case, and in the process misunderstands what it took to make the bomb.     

Precision cyber weapon systems: An important component of a responsible national security strategy?

Given the advances made in conventional weapon capabilities, precision should by now be the accepted and expected norm in cyberspace as well. In this article I argue that developing precision cyber weapon systems, to be used during a lawful conflict, can be an important part of a responsible national security strategy to reduce the amount of violence and physical destruction in conflicts. I first describe a precision cyber weapon system in a military context. I then present three compelling rationales for the development of precision cyber weapon systems based on ethical, operational, and financial considerations. To support the position, I address several arguments that have been levied against their development. Thereafter I present several recommendations for a way ahead.     

How to Fight Terrorism: Alternatives to Deterrence

Deterrence has been a crucial element in fighting terrorism, both in actual politics and rational choice analyses of terrorism. But there are superior strategies to deterrence. One is to make terrorist attacks less attractive. Another to raise the opportunity cost - rather than the material cost - to terrorists. These alternative strategies effectively dissuade potential terrorists. The strategies suggested here build on the "benevolence" system and tend to produce a positive sum game among the interacting parties. In contrast, the deterrence system is based on "threats" and tends to produce a negative sum game interaction.     

PROTECTING CULTURAL MONUMENTS AGAINST TERRORISM

Famous cultural monuments are often regarded as unique icons, making them an attractive target for terrorists. Despite huge military and police outlays, terrorist attacks on important monuments can hardly be avoided. We argue that an effective strategy to discourage terrorist attacks on iconic monuments is for a government to show a firm commitment to swift reconstruction. Using a simple game‐theoretic model, we demonstrate how a credible claim to rebuild any destroyed cultural monument discourages terrorist attacks by altering the terrorists' expectations and by increasing the government's reputation costs if they fail to rebuild.     

Military support and transnational terrorism

Analysing the relationship between the provision of military support and the probability of becoming the target of a terrorist attack, this paper contributes to the literature on the causes of transnational terrorism. We find that deployment of military troops of country X in country Y increases the probability of a terrorist attack on citizens of country X by a terrorist group located in country Y. Exporting weapons to country Y seems to increase the probability of being attacked by the terrorists of this country Y as well. Deploying materials, however, does not seem to significantly influence the probability of attack. Including lagged values for our military support variables ensures that the causality direction is from military support to terrorist attacks. Moreover, these results indicate that while the effect of military deployment on the probability of attack lasts for more than 1 year, the effect is rather short-lived.     

Terrorists and Unconventional Weapons: Is the Threat Real?

For years the government has been concerned about terrorists and unconventional weapons - but is the threat real? The threat is definitely real, but may not be from the source you would expect. The threat is not from biological and chemical weapons as experts seems to think - yes the information is readily available, but production and dissemination are far more complicated than what the public has been lead to believe. Even the threat from radiological devices, otherwise known as 'dirty bombs', is not realistic. The weapon is extremely dangerous to make, very heavy and produces a low mass casualty rate. Instead the threat stems from terrorists acquiring, producing or stealing nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons today are small enough that we would never be able to find them, and they can be remotely detonated.     

舰炮一维弹道修正弹对岸校射方法研究

一维弹道修正弹是近年来兵器领域新研制的一种低成本信息化弹药，目前对其校射方法尚未有成熟的标准。为此，在分析一维弹道修正弹对岸射击工作原理、计算有无控弹试射的基础上，提出舰炮武器系统使用有控一维弹道修正弹的校射新方法，并确定了校射的组数和发数。分别对使用新方法前后的射击效能进行了数值仿真，结果表明本方法能极大地提高舰炮武器系统的射击效能。所提方法对舰炮武器作战效能的提高具有较强的理论价值和一定的参考意义。     

‘Faced with death,even a mouse bites’: Social and religious motivations behind terrorism in Chechnya

This article analyzes the motivations behind individuals who chose to adopt terrorist methods in the Chechen conflicts of the late 1990s and early 2000s. While the seemingly obvious motivation in joining in a ‘religious’ war of jihad would be a strong belief in that religion, the reality is more complicated. The motivations behind these individuals were not only religious, but cultural, social, and political. This indicates that while the methods and ideological rhetoric adopted by Chechen terrorists prove similar to methods adopted by terrorists across the world, the fundamental causes and drive behind these terrorists are actually quite distinct and unique from others.     

New terrorist threat to India's internal security: the danger from Pakistan's “Karachi Project”

The spectacular commando-style terrorist strike on Mumbai in November 2008 exposed India's lax internal security structure. As nearly all the security apparatus broke down during the long spell of attacks, massive public outrage flared up across the country calling for a firmer government response. Shockingly, India has done little to prevent a recurrence and a new security threat faces the country every single day not merely before but even after the Mumbai attacks. In contrast, Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence and the Lashkar-e-Taiba have successfully evaded pressures from both India and the international community and continue their terror campaign against India under the “Karachi Project” with the explicit intention to unsettle South Asia. Classified documents indicated that India is at the forefront of a cataclysmic “nuclear terrorism” threat from a “combination of Pakistan-based terrorists and homegrown radicals.” This article analyses the danger posed by the Indo-Pak radical groups targeting India and India's lack of preparedness to the new security threat from the “Karachi Project.”     

易燃易爆化工单位反恐对策研究

分析了易燃易爆化工单位遭遇恐怖袭击的危害性，着重分析了13种易燃易爆化工单位反恐防范对策，并提出反恐发展建议，欲予易爆易爆危险化学品生产、储存、使用单位反恐工作提供一定借鉴。     

PUBLIC ATTITUDES REGARDING UNDOCUMENTED MIGRATION AND POLICING/CRIME

The incessant bomb attacks by the Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram elements among other popular movements, against the people and government targets, have unmistakably put Nigeria on the global terrorist nations’ map. The grievances of these groups which are political, economic and religious may not be unconnected from the design and operation of the federation; this paper thus examines the constitutional provisions, and political and economic attributes, of the Nigerian federation in the Fourth Republic with a view to discovering why a mechanism put in place with the objective of achieving interethnic unity, democratic stability and socio-economic development has worked to enthrone crisis, violence and disintegrative tendencies in the country. This paper argues that the current reign of terror is a manifestation of a more serious de-linkage and inconsonance between the state and the people, with popular movements providing an alternative platform for spaces, voices and benefits from the streets and away from the state. The paper concludes that the hope for federal renewal lies in the ability of the current handlers of the Nigerian statecraft to marry decentralist constitutional reforms with an agenda for mass-based socio-economic development of the country.     

海警部队参与海上反恐作战的思考

随着各国加强对空中和陆地恐怖主义的防控，恐怖主义把视角转向海上。海上恐怖主义具有事件的突发性、手段的多样性、处置的复杂性等特点。边防海警部队参与海上反恐作战有利于取得海上反恐斗争的胜利，有利于掌握海上反恐主动权，有利于顺应国际海上反恐斗争的形势。针对海上恐怖主义的特点，边防海警部队应做到以下几点：一是平时反恐作战准备应具有超前性，二是参与海上反恐作战应体现实效性，三是参与海上反恐作战应把握全局性。     

Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth

We use the Hsiao–Granger method to test for terrorism–growth causality for seven Western European countries. In bivariate settings, the impact of economic performance on domestic terrorism is very strong. In trivariate settings, the impact of performance on terrorism diminishes. In general, we find that economic performance leads terrorist violence in robust ways only for three out of seven countries. Terrorism is almost never found to causally influence growth in bivariate and trivariate specifications. Our findings indicate that the role of economic performance in determining terrorist violence appears to have been important for some countries, whereas all attacked economies have been successful in adjusting to the threat of terrorism.