高超声速滑翔目标拦截弹方案设计与弹道规划北大核心

针对高超声速滑翔目标的拦截问题,分析了拦截窗口、拦截方式以及毁伤方式等拦截问题,并提出了拦截弹总体方案及弹道规划需求;开展了拦截弹总体方案设计,设计了一种两级助推的拦截弹方案,确定了推进系统、操纵系统的总体基本参数,并完成了拦截弹气动外形设计与质心定位;构建了拦截弹弹道规划的分析方法和工具,根据设计约束开展了针对HTV-2高超声速滑翔目标的拦截弹道规划研究,采用粒子群算法对弹道进行了求解。结果表明:采用空基拦截的方式可达到预期的最大拦截速度,满足拦截弹拦截滑翔武器的速度约束指标;此外开展了该拦截弹拦截概率评估,确定了针对高超声速滑翔目标可采用分层防御的方式从多个拦截站依次拦截。     

用于拦截弹的弹上控制装置研制

弹上控制装置是拦截弹的重要组成部分,其决定了拦截弹是否可以对目标进行可靠拦截。弹上控制装置既要保证拦截弹运输过程中的安全性,又要确保拦截弹发射后的可靠点火动作。介绍了弹上控制器的设计内容、关键技术和研制过程中遇到的问题,重点介绍了双环境力解保设计方法,并对下一步的工作进行了展望。     

动能拦截弹技术发展现状与趋势

介绍了美国动能拦截弹及其相关技术的发展现状及趋势.美国是最先开发研究动能杀伤器和动能拦截弹技术的国家,现已部署地基拦截弹、标准-3导弹、爱国者先进能力3导弹,并已具备初始作战能力;末段高层防御拦截弹也进入生产和部署阶段;正在开发的助推段拦截弹和多杀伤器技术也已取得很大进展.动能拦截弹已成为当前最先进、最有效的反导武器.     

大气层内姿控反导导弹末端控制技术研究

未来战争是高技术战争,随着战术弹道导弹(TBM)及其技术的发展,TBM已成为现代战争中的核心武器,与此同时TBM的使用也对防空系统构成了严重的威胁,所以有效拦截TBM已成为现代防空作战的重要任务之一。TBM具有高速大机动的特点,因此拦截弹在末制导段的精确制导及复合控制是保证拦截弹最终完成摧毁效果的关键。总结了拦截弹末制导的情况,建立了拦截弹数学模型,设计了直接力/气动力复合控制系统,最后对拦截弹末制导段进行了仿真。结果表明,所设计的制导控制系统具有很强的自适应性和鲁棒性,制导精度满足要求。     

面向空域和机动性的拦截弹能量管理优化研究

研究了拦截弹能量管理优化问题,通过分配拦截弹的第3级双脉冲固体发动机推进剂装药量,使拦截弹的作战空域和机动性综合最优。首先建立了拦截弹质量和动力模型,然后提出了拦截弹空域、全弹和第3级Ⅱ脉冲机动性分别最大的单目标优化模型,以及其综合性能最优的多目标优化模型。最后采用粒子群优化算法,面向拦截弹空域和机动性,对第3级双脉冲装药量分配进行了优化及分析。     

临近空间高超声速目标拦截弹弹道规划

利用弹道规划设计了针对临近空间高超声速飞行器的拦截弹道。分析了临近空间高超声速目标拦截问题,将其定性为临近空间的远程高超声速拦截,并提出弹道规划需求;设计了一种两级助推的拦截弹,建立了考虑地球曲率和自转的拦截弹质点平面运动模型;根据弹道规划需求设计弹道约束,以末速最大、与终点距离误差最小和全程热量最小为指标建立拦截弹弹道规划问题;采用粒子群算法求解弹道,结果表明:符合约束的规划弹道是高抛再入形式,与比例导引弹道和准最佳弹道相比,拦截弹大部分时间飞行在大气层外,有效降低了气动热效应影响和对弹体材料的性能需求,且为末制导段提供良好的初始工作环境。     

中段反导火力单元优化部署研究

针对来袭的弹道导弹进行拦截的问题,分析了中段拦截的交战过程,建立简化的拦截弹的弹道模型。将拦截剩余时间,迎击角和拦截时来袭导弹的速度作为优化指标,依据拦截弹的拦截高度和拦截斜距,选定拦截弹可能部署的位置区域,并采用网格划分方式对该区域进行均匀离散化处理。对不同位置下的拦截弹的射击有利度进行分析,最后得出对于已知来袭目标弹道轨迹时的拦截弹的最优部署位置。为构建中段反导防御体系和多层反导防御体系提供了一种量化的计算方法,对反导作战具有一定的理论指导意义。     

基于仿真的深弹拦截鱼雷作战效能评估分析方法

拦截概率是反映悬浮式深弹拦截鱼雷作战效能的一项关键指标。结合战场态势对拦截概率及其影响因素进行了分析,提出了深弹阵对预定拦截线有效覆盖的问题;分析并提出了有效投影区间的计算公式,建立了拦截概率的理论计算模型;提出了基于仿真的拦截概率点估计和区间估计方法。仿真表明,该方法可为深弹拦截鱼雷的指控自动化设计、训战计划制定及其效果分析提供参考。     

基于几何关系的视线指令制导律研究

针对近程车载防空系统拦截空地导弹的制导问题,设计了一种视线指令制导律.首先建立了地面站、拦截弹和空地导弹三者之间相对运动模型,然后以控制拦截弹位于地面站和空地导弹连线上为目标,根据三者在空间的几何关系设计了一种视线指令制导律,并对拦截的可行性进行了分析.仿真结果验证了所设计的制导律能够有效保证地面站的安全,与比例导引律相比,提高了制导精度,缩短了拦截时间.     

弹道导弹防御中拦截弹最优分层配置

多层弹道导弹防御系统在助推段、飞行中段或再入段不同阶段实施拦截,可有效提高系统拦截概率,不同拦截阶段存在拦截弹最优配比问题。为了解决拦截弹道导弹过程中的最优分层配置的问题,本文分别以单层、双层、三层这三种拦截系统为例,通过公式演算和计算机仿真,得出了分段拦截弹道导弹时、不同拦截阶段的拦截弹之间的数量比与整体拦截成功率之间的关系;并提出了整体拦截成功率的概念。经仿真表明,在整体拦截成功率给定的情况下,使用本文所得出的不同拦截段之间所需拦截弹数目之间的最优比,可以最大限度地降低弹道导弹的拦截成本。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.