Predicting intensive care unit bed occupancy for integrated operating room scheduling via neural networks

In a master surgery scheduling (MSS) problem, a hospital's operating room (OR) capacity is assigned to different medical specialties. This task is critical since the risk of assigning too much or too little OR time to a specialty is associated with overtime or deficit hours of the staff, deferral or delay of surgeries, and unsatisfied—or even endangered—patients. Most MSS approaches in the literature focus only on the OR while neglecting the impact on downstream units or reflect a simplified version of the real‐world situation. We present the first prediction model for the integrated OR scheduling problem based on machine learning. Our three‐step approach focuses on the intensive care unit (ICU) and reflects elective and urgent patients, inpatients and outpatients, and all possible paths through the hospital. We provide an empirical evaluation of our method with surgery data for Universitätsklinikum Augsburg, a German tertiary care hospital with 1700 beds. We show that our model outperforms a state‐of‐the‐art model by 43% in number of predicted beds. Our model can be used as supporting tool for hospital managers or incorporated in an optimization model. Eventually, we provide guidance to support hospital managers in scheduling surgeries more efficiently.     

Optimal refueling strategies for a mixed-vehicle fleet

The problem treated here involves a mixed fleet of vehicles comprising two types of vehicles: K₁ tanker-type vehicles capable of refueling themselves and other vehicles, and K₂ nontanker vehicles incapable of refueling. The two groups of vehicles have different fuel capacities as well as different fuel consumption rates. The problem is to find the tanker refueling sequence that maximizes the range attainable for the K₂ nontankers. A tanker refueling sequence is a partition of the tankers into m subsets (2 ≤ m ≤ K₁). A given sequence of the partition provides a realization of the number of tankers participating in each successive refueling operation. The problem is first formulated as a nonlinear mixed-integer program and reduced to a linear program for a fixed sequence which may be solved by a simple recursive procedure. It is proven that a “unit refueling sequence” composed of one tanker refueling at each of K₁ refueling operations is optimal. In addition, the problem of designing the “minimum fleet” (minimum number of tankers) required for a given set of K₂ nontankers to attain maximal range is resolved. Also studied are extensions to the problem with a constraint on the number of refueling operations, different nontanker recovery base geometry, and refueling on the return trip.     

基于约束满足的多目标对地观测卫星成像调度

EOS(对地观测卫星)成像调度需要根据用户提出的成像任务需求确定卫星成像序列,是一个复杂的组合优化问题。考虑到成像侧视约束条件,建立EOS成像调度的多目标有向无环约束图模型。在此模型的基础上提出了基于SPEA2(strength pareto evolutionary algorithm 2)的多目标成像调度算法,采用约束控制技术设计遗传算子处理成像约束。经过三个实际的多目标成像调度问题测试,表明该算法可以有效地解决EOS成像调度问题。     

油库安全事故致因机理及安全评价方法研究

首先基于油库安全和事故状态分析,将油库安全事故的影响因素分为人的行为、物的状态、管理和环境四个要素,提出油库安全事故致因新模式,即两种安全模式和一种事故致因模式,以从源头上控制油库事故的发生。其次,依据致因模式,建立了油库安全状况评价指标体系,包括人员、装(设)备、材料、环境、方法,有助于评判油库安全状况。最后,依据安全事故新模式和安全评价指标体系,提出了油库安全保障体系,包括安全教育、安全技术培训、安全法规、安全监督、安全预案与救援、安全设施建设等体系。     

中继卫星调度问题的CSP模型

中继卫星在地球同步静止轨道上运行,既能直视中、低轨道用户航天器,又能直视地面站,是沟通用户航天器与地面站的桥梁。中继卫星调度问题是一类非常重要的调度问题。基于约束满足理论,通过分析中继卫星调度问题的特点与约束条件,建立了中继卫星调度问题的CSP模型。利用卫星工具箱STK进行模拟仿真,对CSP模型进行了求解。结果表明,所建立的CSP模型是合理的。     

An Optimal Method to Schedule Dynamic Maintenance Task with Subject Taken into Account

The task of maintenance organization is very heavy at wartime.The usability of armaments may be greatly improved by efficient task scheduling.In order to recover the battle effectiveness of units in battlefield as fast as possible,dynamic maintenance scheduling models with subject taken into account were built on the basis of analysis the feature of maintenance task.Maintenance task scheduling problem is very complicated.So it is decomposed into two sub-problems:static maintenance task scheduling and dynamic maintenance task scheduling problem with subject taken into account.Corresponding mathematic models were built to these sub-problems and their solutions were proposed.Dynamic maintenance task scheduling with subject taken into account is on the basis of static maintenance task scheduling.With the task changing in battlefield,dynamic task scheduling can be realized by repeatedly call of static maintenance task scheduling with subject taken into account.The experimented results show that dynamic maintenance task scheduling method with maintenance subject taken into account is valid.     

Maintenance and flight scheduling of low observable aircraft

In this article, we focus on relatively new maintenance and operational scheduling challenges that are faced by the United States Air Force concerning low‐observable (LO) or stealth aircraft. The LO capabilities of an aircraft degrade stochastically as it flies, making it difficult to make maintenance scheduling decisions. Maintainers can address these damages, but must decide, which aircraft should be put into maintenance, and for how long. Using data obtained from an active duty Air Force F‐22 wing and interviews with Air Force maintainers and program specialists, we model this problem as a generalization of the well‐known restless multiarmed bandit superprocess. Specifically, we use an extension of the traditional model to allow for actions that require varying lengths of time, and generate two separate index policies from a single model; one for maintenance actions and one for the flying action. These index policies allow maintenance schedulers to intuitively, quickly, and effectively rank a fleet of aircraft based on each aircraft's LO status and decide, which aircraft should enter into LO maintenance and for how long, and which aircraft should be used to satisfy daily sortie requirements. Finally, we present extensive data‐driven, detailed simulation results, where we compare the performance of the index policies against policies currently used by the Air Force, as well as some other possible more naive heuristics. The results indicate that the index policies significantly outperform existing policies in terms of fully mission capable (FMC) rates. In particular, the experiments highlight the importance of coordinated maintenance and flying decisions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 62:60–80, 2015     

CREAM追溯法在油库人因安全事故分析中的应用

深入探讨油库人因安全事故发生的根原因，对油库人因安全事故的分析评估和油库人因安全事故进行定量化预测及隐患排查具有重要意义。基于认知可靠性和失误分析追溯方法建立了适用于油库人因安全事故根原因分析和追溯的失误模式及后果一前因追溯表，并应用于油库人因安全事故实例分析中，证明了该方法应用于油库人因安全事故根原因分析的实用性和有效性。     

Capacitated lot‐sizing and scheduling with parallel machines,back‐orders,and setup carry‐over

We address the capacitated lot‐sizing and scheduling problem with setup times, setup carry‐over, back‐orders, and parallel machines as it appears in a semiconductor assembly facility. The problem can be formulated as an extension of the capacitated lot‐sizing problem with linked lot‐sizes (CLSPL). We present a mixed integer (MIP) formulation of the problem and a new solution procedure. The solution procedure is based on a novel “aggregate model,” which uses integer instead of binary variables. The model is embedded in a period‐by‐period heuristic and is solved to optimality or near‐optimality in each iteration using standard procedures (CPLEX). A subsequent scheduling routine loads and sequences the products on the parallel machines. Six variants of the heuristic are presented and tested in an extensive computational study. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Instant transportation solutions

This paper presents direct noniterative methods for solving such known problems as shoploading and aggregate scheduling. There is given a simple optimal rule for the shop-loading problem which is quite surprising. The crucial point in solving this problem is what not to assign rather than what to assign. The development of those methods was possible since the discussed problems can be converted into a special transportation model where the given cost coefficients c_ij assume a form cij = ui + uj.     

Sensor radiation interception risk control in target tracking

This paper is mainly on the problem of radiation interception risk control in sensor network for target tracking. Firstly, the sensor radiation interception risk is defined as the product of the interception probability and the cost caused by the interception. Secondly, the radiation interception probability model and cost model are established, based on which the calculation method of interception risk can be obtained. Thirdly, a sensor scheduling model of radiation risk control is established, taking the minimum interception risk as the objective function. Then the Hungarian algorithm is proposed to obtain sensor scheduling scheme. Finally, simulation experiments are mad to prove the effectiveness of the methods proposed in this paper, which shows that compared with the sensor radiation interception probability control method, the interception risk control method can keep the sensor scheduling scheme in low risk as well as protect sensors of importance in the sensor network.     

一种用于SpaceWire网络的混合路由机制设计*

针对星上系统总线多元性导致的星载网络接口和协议不能标准化的发展瓶颈,本文基于SpaceWire总线协议,通过将静态路由(时间触发)与动态路由(事件触发)机制结合,实现了控制数据和载荷数据共用网络。静态路由完全遵循SpaceWire-D协议,在保证确定性传输的同时,通过启发式调度算法首次实现了多时间窗并行调度,并提出利用最大公约数法设计时间窗,以提高网络吞吐量；动态路由通过对随机事件和载荷数据分配优先级,实现传输路径冲突时对紧急任务的优先处理。最后在OPENT中搭建网络系统仿真模型,对所提出的路由机制进行了仿真。实验结果表明,静态路由时段网络吞吐量较现有调度算法有明显提高,动态路由实现了紧急事件优先传输。     

卫星数传调度模型研究

卫星数传调度问题是一个具有多时间窗口、多资源约束的优化问题。针对该问题,建立了卫星数传需求模型、任务模型和调度模型。在建模过程中,采用了框架模型形式,把问题中的主要约束封闭于每个数传任务中,这在降低调度模型复杂度的同时,也降低了调度算法设计难度。还提出了调度算法设计思想,并设计了一基于灵活度的调度算法。仿真表明,所建立的模型及算法对解决卫星数传调度问题是可行的。     

潮流与风对单点系泊系统运动稳定性的影响研究

应用时域仿真的方法研究了风与潮流作用下单点系泊系统的非线性动力学特性。以三阶操纵运动方程为基础,引入定常的风力、潮流作用力和二阶波浪力,建立了系泊系统三自由度运动微分方程,据此建立了系泊系统的多自由度计算机仿真模型。风与潮流联合作用的情形下,对一艘单点系泊油轮的动力学行为进行了数值仿真研究。以潮流速度和系缆长度为分岔控制参数,在参数平面上给出了油轮系泊运动的Hopf分岔集,它将参数平面分为两个系统动力学行为本质不同的区域。研究表明,与潮流(顶流)单独作用的情形相比,顶风条件增加了油轮静止系泊位置的Liapunov稳定性。     

Spares stocking policies for repairable items with dependent repair times

This paper analyzes the problem of determining desirable spares inventory levels for repairable items with dependent repair times. The problem is important for repairable products such as aircraft engines which can have very large investment in spares inventory levels. While existing models can be used to determine optimal inventory spares levels when repair times are independent, the practical considerations of limited repair shop capacity and prioritized shop dispatching rules combine to make repair times not independent of one another. In this research a simulation model of a limited capacity repair facility with prioritized scheduling is used to explore a variety of heuristic approaches to the spares stocking decision. The heuristics are also compared with use of a model requiring independent repair times (even though that assumption is not valid here). The results show that even when repair time dependencies are present, the performance of a model which assumes independent repair times is quite good.     

应用于流水时序调度的归一化定时数据流图理论

流水时序调度是专用数字信号处理器高层综合中的一个困难而急待解决的问题 ,文中提出了一种有着鲜明物理意义的归一化定时数据流图 ,基于节点移动研究了合法流水调度变换的内部机理 ,从而证明从任一合法的初始流水调度出发 ,通过合法的节点移动可以搜索到设计空间中任何一个合法的流水调度。一个合法、完备的变换集 ,为寻优搜索的算法应用于流水调度解决了理论和算法实现问题。文中还给出了一些实验结果。     

Scheduling patients in an ambulatory surgical center

This paper presents a deterministic approach to schedule patients in an ambulatory surgical center (ASC) such that the number of postanesthesia care unit nurses at the center is minimized. We formulate the patient scheduling problem as new variants of the no‐wait, two‐stage process shop scheduling problem and present computational complexity results for the new scheduling models. Also, we develop a tabu search‐based heuristic algorithm to solve the patient scheduling problem. Our algorithm is shown to be very effective in finding near optimal schedules on a set of real data from a university hospital's ASC. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Stochastic scheduling subject to machine breakdowns: The preemptive‐repeat model with discounted reward and other criteria

We consider the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a single machine subject to random breakdowns. We focus on the preemptive‐repeat model, which addresses the situation where, if a machine breaks down during the processing of a job, the work done on the job prior to the breakdown is lost and the job will have to be started from the beginning again when the machine resumes its work. We allow that (i) the uptimes and downtimes of the machine follow general probability distributions, (ii) the breakdown process of the machine depends upon the job being processed, (iii) the processing times of the jobs are random variables following arbitrary distributions, and (iv) after a breakdown, the processing time of a job may either remain a same but unknown amount, or be resampled according to its probability distribution. We first derive the optimal policy for a class of problems under the criterion to maximize the expected discounted reward earned from completing all jobs. The result is then applied to further obtain the optimal policies for other due date‐related criteria. We also discuss a method to compute the moments and probability distributions of job completion times by using their Laplace transforms, which can convert a general stochastic scheduling problem to its deterministic equivalent. The weighted squared flowtime problem and the maintenance checkup and repair problem are analyzed as applications. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004