基于竞赛图的海上编队协同作战冲突排序方法

海上编队协同作战中的冲突消解顺序问题能影响编队作战效能。为了确定冲突消解的顺序问题,采用基于综合集成权重的竞赛图方法来表示多种冲突的有序关系,定量化给出了各冲突严重程度的排序结论,不仅为指挥员的决策提供了依据,而且提出了一种有序替代具体数值的定量化分析方法。结果证明,该方法简单、有效。     

一种基于辩论的协作型CGF分层协商模型

针对作战仿真对人类行为表示(HBR)的准确性要求,建立真实反映战场行为的冲突消解模型是非常重要的.根据已有研究的不足和冲突行为分析,提出了基于辩论的协作型计算机生成兵力(CGF)分层协商模型,在给出相关定义的基础上,研究了冲突下的协商行为过程,实现了基于效用理论的论据强度定量评估算法,算法用于实现首选议题的选取和共同信...     

基于演化博弈的结构化无人集群协作控制方法

针对无人集群作战中的分工合作问题,提出了一种基于演化博弈的结构化集群协作控制方法.分析无人集群分工合作需求,基于演化博弈理论,构建结构化集群分工合作模型;在此基础上,理论推导模型的演化动力学过程及博弈均衡解,得出集群分工合作的形成条件;最后,以集群火力打击任务为想定,仿真规则图及一般拓扑上的集群策略演化过程,仿真结果与理论推导相印证,证明了模型方法的合理性与可行性,为相关理论向实际应用转化提供了初步和有意义的探索.     

装备研制协同创新演化博弈分析

在装备研制阶段,创新群体往往不是完全理性的,博弈结果也不能通过一次性的静态博弈来实现,需要进行多次的动态博弈最终形成创新群体的稳定策略。通过设置参数、明确策略集合,构建了装备研制阶段协同创新演化博弈模型,得出群体协同创新的演化稳定策略;最后,通过进行参数分析,从4个方面得出相关的对策建议。     

武器装备预先研究协同创新演化博弈分析

协同创新已是当今世界科技创新活动的新趋势,成为整合资源、提高创新效率的有效途径。在分析装备预先研究和协同创新主体理性的基础上,确认了演化博弈的适用性,通过设置承研单位的可共享创新资源参数、创新资源学习利用吸收转化能力参数、知识技术外溢风险参数、军队提供的政策与资金支持参数,构建了武器装备预先研究协同创新博弈的复制者动态模型,得出了承研单位群体的演化稳定策略,分析了各参数对协同创新动态演化的影响,并由此提出相关的对策建议。     

基于布尔网络的指挥控制关系网络演化冲突检测研究

指挥控制组织内部各个实体之间的无冲突的协同配合对使命任务的完成具有重要作用,然而指挥控制组织的内部冲突往往是隐性的,不易被发现。利用生物群落中种群数量演化分析方法,提出一种基于布尔网络的指挥控制关系网络演化模型,通过指挥控制关系网络演化稳定结果的检测,来分析和检验指挥控制组织的合理性,并用一个示例分析和说明该方法的有效性。     

面向多样性与随机性的无人集群合作演化建模及仿真

针对无人集群协同作战中个体策略选择的多样性,以及外部环境扰动带来的策略更新随机性问题,提出了一种基于公共物品博弈的无人集群合作演化机制。分析无人集群自主协同中的多样性与随机性需求,引入公共物品博弈构建基于Moran规则的无人集群合作演化模型;理论推导与解析分析多样性与随机性对集群稳态频率和合作水平的影响;最后,仿真验证理论推导的正确性,并分析参数变化对集群合作行为的影响,据此给出无人集群作战中有效应对多样性与随机性的合理建议。相关成果为揭示无人集群作战中的多样性与随机性机理,实现相关理论向现实应用的转化提供了理论支撑与仿真依据。     

基于协商的Agent资源冲突消解算法研究

针对分布式规划系统中Agent计划的资源冲突问题,研究了资源冲突的分类;基于Agent协商理论,从资源最优配置的角度,论证了最优的协商策略,提出了可重复利用的不可分享型资源的冲突消解算法,较好地解决了Agent分布式规划中出现的一类资源冲突问题。算例表明,给出的冲突消解算法是有效的。     

复杂网络节点重要度评估及网络脆弱性分析

提出一种基于节点状态演化级联失效模型的节点重要度评估和网络脆弱性分析方法。故障传递演化的内在机理是基础复杂网络变得脆弱的根源。在负载网络级联失效模型的基础上,提出一种能够实时跟踪节点负载状态,继而根据节点状态来重分配节点负载的重分配模型。提出基于节点状态演化的节点重要性评估和网络结构脆弱性分析方法,通过脆弱性分析结果找出网络的健壮性参数,并对此节点重要性评估方法进行失效分析。通过仿真实验验证方法的有效性。     

军民融合产业创新集群的形成

在军民融合发展战略与创新驱动发展战略深入推进进程中,军民融合产业创新集群成为军民融合产业发展的重要创新形式,其形成问题研究更是对其发展与演化具有重要影响。以军民融合产业创新集群的内涵着手,通过刺激—反应模型与演化博弈模型,分析其形成过程与促进措施。研究表明,军民融合产业创新集群作为复杂适应系统,创新主体的适应性能力及其内在关系是集群形成的关键所在;为使合作创新行为成为演化博弈的稳定策略,从合作创新能力系数和合作创新成本、拥有的创新资源以及政府资金支持三个方面剖析集群形成的促进作用,对军民融合产业创新集群的发展与演化研究奠定基础。     

The 1958 Anglo-American Mutual Defence Agreement: The Search for Nuclear Interdependence

Written on the 50th anniversary, this article focuses on the negotiations between Britain and the United States which led to the 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement and the beginning of the ‘special nuclear relationship’ which has lasted down to the present day. It is argued that the eventual success of the negotiations had a lot to do with the key roles of Eisenhower and Macmillan but that a transatlantic ‘advocacy coaltion’ of nuclear scientists, defence and intelligence officials also played an important part at the operational level in achieving and subsequently shaping the kind of relationship which developed. Attention is also given to the longer term significance of the agreement, especially in terms of the arguments about its impact on nuclear proliferation.     

Religion and American Foreign Policy, 1945–1960: The Soul of Containment. by William Inboden

This article predicts that the nuclear weapon states may opt sooner for nuclear elimination than generally expected. This delegitimation of nuclear weapons is due to five factors whose importance has grown since the mid-1990s: nuclear proliferation, the risk of nuclear terrorism, the nuclear taboo, missile defence, and the increased importance of international law. The article starts with categorizing nuclear weapons policies: nuclear primacy, maximum deterrence, minimum deterrence, existential deterrence, and post-existential deterrence. The nuclear weapon states will probably shift their policies from nuclear primacy (US), maximum deterrence (Russia), minimum or existential deterrence (UK, France, Israel, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea) to post-existential deterrence (or elimination), taking one step at a time.     

Cover for Thor: Divine Deception Planning for Cold War Missiles

In the late 1950s, as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) replaced bombers, the development of Soviet ICBMs prompted fears of strategic vulnerability in the West. The Eisenhower administration's decision to deploy Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs) on the territory of NATO allies sought to redress the perceived vulnerability until American ICBMs were ready. British deception planners considered how to enhance the threat posed by the IRBMs. An outline plan codenamed ‘Celestial’ was intended to persuade the Soviets that the otherwise vulnerable missiles could not be readily neutralised. This article explores this deception and how such planning also sought to convey accurate information alongside disinformation. It also suggests that deception planners appear to have given little heed to the potentially counterproductive consequences of such an operation.     

THE ORIGINS OF AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIAN NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

This article explores Russia's increasing reliance on nuclear weapons from three perspectives. First, it seeks to demonstrate that the phenomenon is not exclusively limited to Russia and represents a broader trend, which is ultimately rooted in the nature of the contemporary international system or, more precisely, the uncertainties of the transitional period between the Cold War system and a new emerging one. Second, it analyzes the role assigned to nuclear weapons in Russia's doctrinal documents, in particular the emergence of a new mission—limited-use of nuclear weapons to deter or, if deterrence fails, to de-escalate large-scale conventional conflicts. Discussions of the new doctrine, which have begun recently, suggest that this new mission will likely remain unchanged. Finally, this article looks at the apparent discrepancy between Russia's nuclear modernization programs and the roles assigned to nuclear weapons in the military doctrine, as well as the causes of that discrepancy.     

提高潜艇核安全性的措施

本文根据对潜艇处于水下状态发生辐射事故时的辐射影响的分析,得出当燃料元件包壳破损率和蒸汽发生器传热管泄漏量即使在允许限值内,主辅机舱空气放射性浓度有可能超过允许水平,而直接影响艇员的健康,并针对这一点提出了相应的改进措施。     

Nuclear Incoherence: Deterrence Theory and Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Russia

Russian reliance on its non-strategic nuclear arsenal has been an ongoing concern for security experts. What is the Russian de facto employment doctrine for this arsenal? This article argues that Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) have no defined mission and no deterrence framework has been elaborated for them. This study disentangles Russian thoughts and deeds about regional nuclear deterrence and the role of NSNW in it. Situating the Russian case in the comparative context, the article argues that establishing a coherent theater nuclear posture and streamlining it with the national level deterrence strategy is a demanding and frequently unfulfilled task. It is likely to remain as such for both current and prospective nuclear states that consider an asymmetrical deterrence posture.     

核电站运行诊断系统探讨

根据国外核电站诊断系统的现状,简要叙述其基本组成及工作过程,分析了运行诊断系统在核动力方面的应用前景,提出了加强核电站运行诊断系统应用有效性的几个问题。     

Chinese Theater and Strategic Missile Force Modernization and its Implications for the United States

The People's Republic of China (PRC), no longer content with its longstanding ‘minimalist’ nuclear posture and strategy, is enhancing the striking power and survivability of its theater and strategic missile forces and rethinking its nuclear doctrine in ways that may pose serious challenges for the United States. Although the modernization of Chinese nuclear and missile forces may ultimately result in greater strategic deterrence stability, this change will not come about immediately or automatically. Indeed, it is entirely possible that China's growing missile capabilities could decrease crisis stability under certain circumstances, especially in the event of a US–China conflict over Taiwan.     

核动力装置人机系统可靠性数字仿真研究

对核动力装置人机系统进行了可靠性数字仿真研究,将人的因素和设备的安全性、可靠性、维护性及其它参数进行综合平衡,研制出可靠性较高的系统,并在其使用维护中获得最佳的有效性.     

NUCLEAR ATTRIBUTION AS DETERRENCE

Recently, post-explosion nuclear forensics, or nuclear attribution, has gained a new spotlight within the nuclear weapons scientific and policymaking community. Academics are beginning to ask whether post-explosion forensics might create a replacement for an international nonproliferation regime, or at least offer a fallback option to deter states and individuals from selling nuclear materials. This paper examines current attribution technology from unclassified literature and finds the technology to be well developed but not foolproof, such that nuclear attribution currently provides little deterrent value. If current capabilities were publicized more thoroughly and if the post-explosion process of assessing the evidence were internationalized, states and intermediate actors might be deterred more effectively. Developing a nuclear fingerprint database is also discussed. While useful, its impact on deterrence would be minimal.