武器装备采办风险管理评价指标体系研究

武器装备风险评价指标体系的构建是评价和监控武器装备采办风险的基础工作。本文在系统研究国内外有关采办风险评价指标体系的基础上,结合我国采办工作实际情况,阐述了构建武器装备采办风险评价指标体系的基本原则;运用故障树思想和模糊层次分析法相结合的方法,提出了一套适用于我国武器装备采办风险管理的评价指标体系;进一步给出了使用评价指标体系应注意的问题。     

基于TRL的技术成熟度模型及评估研究

当前,因武器装备采办项目中应用的技术成熟度不高而导致费用超支、进度拖延等问题已引起发达国家的普遍关注,美国、英国、加拿大等发达国家纷纷依据本国的国防采办流程,开展武器装备采办项目技术成熟度评估,以减少项目开发风险。在对技术成熟度、技术就绪水平(TRL)和技术就绪评估(TRA)、技术成熟度影响因素等问题展开深入研究基础上,探索技术成熟度的评估方法,以期能够应用到武器装备项目研制的立项论证、转阶段评审、检查验收等环节中。研究表明,基于TRL的技术成熟度模型及评估研究可以实现对各个环节技术状态的准确把握,对武器装备研制项目成功推进具有一定的理论与现实意义。     

基于集对分析和LS-SVM的装备研制风险综合评价

【】为了有效防控武器装备的研制风险,确保武器装备项目的顺利推进,提出一种基于集对分析(SPA)理论与最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)方法的装备研制风险综合评价方法。在该方法中,首先,根据武器装备研制的具体特点,建立了装备研制风险评价指标体系。然后,在此基础上,引入SPA分析理论中的联系度和集对概念构建了训练样本和测试样本。最后,使用获取的样本对LS-SVM进行训练和测试,得到装备研制风险评价模型,并据此给出评价结果。案例分析表明,所提出方法过程简便,定性定量结合,形式易于理解,评价结果也更加贴近实际,对于提升装备研制项目风险管理和决策水平,具有重要的实际意义。     

大中型综合仿真训练系统工程研制的风险探讨

采用综合仿真训练系统替代武器装备对使用和管理人员进行培训、考核已成为现代武器装备训练中的常用方法之一。文中以大中型综合仿真训练系统为研究对象,分析了工程研制中可能存在的风险因素,给出了风险评估模型及有效的风险控制方法,对武器装备工程研制中的风险管理与控制有一定的参考价值。     

武器装备采购项目管理组织结构选择的一种量化方法

建立武器装备采购项目管理制度是当前我国装备采购制度改革的重要内容，而武器装备采购项目管理的组织机构选择则是必须首先解决的问题。基于此，文章建立了武器装备采购项目管理组织结构选择模型，给出了一种针对武器装备采购项目特点来选择项目管理组织结构的量化方法，并通过对问卷调查数据的统计分析对该方法进行了验证。     

基于成本估算风险的武器装备激励价格合同模式

武器装备研发成本超支是各国军队面临的共性难题,其原因主要是在武器装备研发阶段通常采用成本补偿合同,且在合同签订前武器装备承制单位(承制单位)过于乐观,对实际成本需求估计不足。通过采用激励价格合同模式,基于成本估算概率特性,结合项目成本风险等级,将承制单位成本估算概率映射为不同利润水平或损失等级,建立了基于成本估算风险的武器装备激励价格合同模式,促使承制单位在武器装备研发前提供更为客观的成本建议,降低成本超支风险,同时,提高军方武器装备研发项目的管控水平。     

武器装备科研项目的技术风险及防范

武器装备科研是国防科技与武器装备发展的基础,是提高一国战斗力的重要环节。随着现代科技的迅猛发展及其在军事上的不断应用,武器装备科研费用也迅速增长,费用已经成为世界各国武器装备发展的关键制约因素,因此,如何防范武器装备科研中的各种风险,特别是防范武器装备科研中的主要风险——技术风险,减少武器装备科研的成本,使有限的装备经费发挥最佳的效益,已成为各国普遍关注和重视的问题。一、技术风险的内涵与形成原因在经济学中,风险是一个中性词,美国学者A·H·威雷特在1901年对风险问题有一些研究,他认为:“风险是关于不愿发生的时间…     

武器装备模块化科研生产网络中的契约关系及最优设计

武器装备模块化科研生产网络是指以武器装备的可模块化为前提,用契约将武器装备的模块集成商和模块供应商连接起来的一种开放式的网络组织,具有降低交易成本、增强厂商核心能力、降低投资和技术风险以及更好地应对突发因素等优势。武器装备模块化科研生产网络中,系统主承包商充当模块集成者,武器装备的各个模块(分系统和零部件)则以市场契约的方式分包给相关模块供应商完成,武器装备模块集成商和模块供应商之间,以及有关模块供应商相互之间形成了互补互惠的契约网络。由于面临着信息的不完全性和非对称性问题,因而必然存在道德风险、逆向选择等机会主义行为,并由此影响武器装备模块化科研生产网络的运行效率。因而,有必要通过最优契约的设计来有效防范道德风险、逆向选择等机会主义行为和规避不确定性风险。文章构建了一个契约模型,并通过模型求解得出最优契约解,最后就武器装备模块化科研生产网络的最优契约设计给出了若干结论和启示。     

谋求高技术武器装备投资的高效益

要打赢未来高技术条件下的局部战争,我军必须拥有一定质量和数量的高技术武器装备。投资高技术武器装备的科研生产,具有高投入、高风险和高效益的特点。如何在减少高技术武器装备投资的投入和风险的同时,谋求这种投资的高效益,是摆在我军面前的一个迫切需要研究并解决的课题。本文认为,要谋求高技术武器投资的高效益,必须慎重选择发展项目,合理使用有限的资金;充分发挥高技术武器装备的效能,提高高技术武器装备的使用效费比;借鉴外军采购方法,降低高技术武器装备的采购成本。     

武器装备建设方案的组合分析方法

在武器装备建设顶层设计中,将若干备选的装备项目构建成武器装备建设方案是一项非常重要的工作.使用组合分析的理论对此问题进行了研究.首先,按照装备种类由备选的装备项目组合出多种武器装备建设方案,作为决策分析的对象.然后,选择满足任务程度、满足任务风险、建设费用和建设风险作为指标评价每种方案的优劣.最后,按照不同的决策目的和重点,对建设方案进行排序和选优.所附算例说明了方法的适用性.     

An Unlikely Alliance: Portuguese and South African Airpower in Angola, 1968–1974

The war that Portugal was obliged to fight in Africa began in 1961 and immediately stretched the resources of its armed forces. Nowhere was this thinness more apparent than in policing the vast territory of Angola. The east and southeast of Angola were particularly vulnerable, as the area was a vast, sparsely populated region characterised by enormous featureless plains or chanas covered in tall grass and broken by an extensive river system and mountainous forests. The only military solution to policing these immense spaces was aviation and specifically the helicopter that could carry troops into battle, protect them with a gunship and bring them home when the operation was concluded. The immediate problem for the Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa or FAP) in Angola and elsewhere was a scarcity of helicopters. The solution was an alliance with South Africa, which had a strong inventory of Alouette IIIs, to help in policing the east. This move was likewise in the interest of South Africa, as its threat came from Zambia through south-eastern Angola. This article examines the strategic and tactical development of this unusual, cross-cultural alliance and the symbiotic relationship that resulted in destruction of the enemies of both in Angola.     

国内外结构钢焊条研究的现状与发展

本文主要介绍了国外焊条的现状和发展趋势,包括焊条的高韧性、高效率、低尘低毒和耐吸潮性能,为国内的焊条研究提供了参考依据。     

A Sign of Victory?: ‘Scottish Swords’ and Other Weapons in the Possession of the ‘Auld Innemie’

Many late medieval documents, notably inventories of arms and armour, of Englishmen contain references to ‘Scottish swords’ and other weapons. What did the compilers of these documents mean when they described a weapon as ‘Scottish’? How did such weapons come to be in the possession of these men? This article will attempt to explain this phenomenon drawing on primary documentary sources and surviving material culture from Glasgow Museums’ collections and others, as well as artworks from the period.     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Cyberpower in Strategic Affairs: Neither Unthinkable nor Blessed

Abstract

This article explores the effect of connectivity on strategic affairs. It argues that the effect on war's character is potentially, although not yet shown in practice, considerably large. Its effect upon the distribution of power among states in the international system is small, contrary to the claims of ‘cyberwar’ alarmists. All told, however, its effect upon strategic affairs is complex. On the one hand, it represents a significant advance in the ‘complexification’ of state strategies, understood in the sense of the production of intended effects. On the other hand, strategists today – still predominantly concerned with the conflicts and confrontations of states and organised military power – are generally missing the power which non-traditional strategic actors, better adapted to the network flows of the information age, are beginning to deploy. These new forms of organization and coercion will challenge the status quo.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.