基于模糊多属性决策的反装甲目标战场价值评估

信息化战场反装甲目标层出不穷,指挥员决策难度增大。针对反装甲目标信息的复杂性,应用模糊多属性决策理论,提出坦克分队进攻战斗中敌反装甲目标战场价值评估的方法。并通过确定各决策因素指标值和计算加权值,构建价值评估多属性决策模型,快速有效地确定分队本级范畴内的敌反装甲目标的战场价值,有利于分队指挥员迅速果断地实现其作战指挥决策。     

基于Vague集极值记分函数的装甲分队目标威胁评估

为了快速准确地对装甲分队作战单元面临的目标进行威胁度判断,提高信息化装甲分队作战辅助决策水平,建立了基于Vague集的极值记分函数评估模型,且构造了适合威胁评估的记分函数。实例分析表明,该模型可有效地完成目标威胁评估与排序,为分队火力优化控制提供重要数据支持。     

装甲分队目标威胁评估指标体系研究

装甲分队目标威胁评估指标的确定,是实现目标威胁评估与排序的先决条件。依据目标的属性特征,以及装甲分队作战特点,建立了目标威胁评估指标体系,并且利用标度法和线性简化等方法对各指标进行了量化。最后,根据不同作战样式提出了指标权重调节向量,使得威胁评估指标更能反映目标战场战术实际。     

基于GM(1,1)预测与改进Vague集距离的装甲分队目标威胁评估

针对装甲分队目标威胁评估动态指标的变化特性,运用灰色模型(Grey Model,GM(1,1))对装甲分队目标威胁评估动态指标进行了预测;针对现有vague集距离度量法缺失信息较多、违背直觉等不足,通过理论推导提出了vague集新的距离度量公式,然后将其应用到TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Simularity to Ideal Solution)算法中,对装甲分队目标威胁进行了评估与排序,并与非预测方法的评估结果进行了对比,结果表明:采用本文提出的评估算法得出的评估结果更加合理有效,研究成果可为装甲分队火力优化分配提供科学参考。     

模糊多属性决策理论在防空兵作战能力评估中的应用

针对防空兵系统特点,运用模糊多属性决策理论探索防空兵作战能力评估问题。构建了模糊多属性评估算法,结合具体的数学工具建立了模糊多属性评估模型,经过三级模糊综合评估得出评估结论。经实例检验该方法在防空兵作战能力评估中具有较好的应用价值,另外该方法在其他领域也具有较好的推广价值。     

战场目标价值偏好不确定分析模型

根据作战需要对战场目标价值进行分析并确定其先后顺序是炮兵、防空兵作战指挥员及指挥自动化辅助决策系统的一项重要任务.对目标价值分析算法进行了总结,分析了模型的一般结构特征.为解决以往算法中指标权重不确定性带来的问题,根据多属性决策的特点,运用模糊决策理论提出偏好不确定的战场目标价值计算模型.同以往目标价值分析算法相比,该模型具有较好的适应性及可操作性,为炮兵防空兵指挥员的决策行为提供了依据.     

合成旅目标威胁评估指标体系

目标威胁指标体系的确定,是作战指挥员准确评估战场态势进而合理确定作战方案的前提。针对目前评估对象多限于分队级以下单目标而缺乏对分队级以上地面合成部队的评估决策的问题,以合成旅为研究背景,结合现代战争的特点与实际,建立了上下两层目标威胁评估体系,并对各项指标进行合理量化,为战场大规模目标评估奠定基础,为辅助战役级指挥决策提供重要支撑。     

基于模糊多属性的机群空面多目标任务分配

飞机编队在执行空面作战任务时,在进行多目标任务分配之前必须对作战的目标进行有效评估。考虑目标的威胁、政治价值和经济价值等不同属性,建立了多目标分配综合价值评估指标;运用模糊多属性法和G.A.M iller九级量化理论对目标综合价值进行量化,并采用离差最大组合赋权法求出各属性权值,建立单机多目标分配模型。提出基于数据链通信的编队多目标最优分配算法,最后给出仿真实例,仿真结果表明此方法能合理有效地对多目标进行最优分配。     

基于贝叶斯分类器的目标价值等级分析

现代战争作战目标繁多,从目标价值角度对目标的重要程度进行评估,建立了基于朴素贝叶斯分类器的目标价值评估模型,并利用基于无向完全图的贝叶斯分类器,将目标属性间的关系加入到评估模型中,为指挥员和决策机关的作战目标选择提供了科学的依据.     

基于模糊多属性决策的威胁度评估与排序研究

应用模糊多属性决策理论与方法,提出一种对多批目标威胁度大小综合评估和排序的方法。此方法用模糊集和模糊数来定义和表述问题,应用模糊多属性决策方法和模糊算法实现威胁度评估并排序,使结果更能逼近于真实的空中态势状态,有利于现代实战环境中实现作战指挥决策的科学化。     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.