军事能力到装备系统的双层规划模型及其求解算法

阐述了基于能力的军事规划新思路,提出了从军事能力到系统项目的两层规划模型。该模型上层以效果和效果-成本比值最大化为目标,通过资本规模来约束下层决策。下层以各种能力最大化为目标,在成本约束下寻求不同系统项目的最佳组合,并将结果返回上层影响最终的决策。应用了多目标遗传算法来求解该规划模型。算例结果表明,所建立的双层规划模型及其求解算法对于国防资源分配问题是有效的。     

合成分队双层主从决策模型研究

针对合成分队不同指挥层级之间的决策交互优化问题,提出了基于主从决策的双层武器目标分配模型。该模型能够体现上下指挥层级之间交互式决策协调优化的特点:上层目标为主攻方向我方遭受威胁最小,下层目标为对敌打击最大。结合合成分队作战决策的特点和要求,提出了一种求解该模型的改进型粒子群优化算法。仿真结果表明,该模型合理有效,改进的求解算法能够获得满意解。     

网络化指挥控制系统同步特性分析

为解决指挥控制系统模型难以进行数值分析的问题,根据指挥控制过程OODA模型的周期循环特性定义了指挥节点动力学振子,应用捕捉复杂网络同步动力过程的Kuramoto模型描述了网络化指挥控制系统的同步行为特性,并分析了耦合强度与系统同步之间的关系.理论与数值分析表明:对于全连通的网络化指挥控制系统,当信息交互耦合强度超过阚值时系统能达到同步.     

基于PON技术的多站雷达数字光纤传输系统设计

提出一种多站雷达体系雷达数据光纤传输系统的方案设计和实现方法。与传统雷达使用的光纤传输系统不同,而是采用技术较新的基于无源光网络PON的实时数据通信系统,这是无源光网络技术在多传感器实时通信领域的首次应用。在系统设计中利用先进的光电子和在编程技术,实现了点对多点雷达数据光纤传输,提高了信号传输质量,同时系统具有动态接入和扩容的能力。     

分布式装备管理信息系统的数据同步机制研究与实现

根据分布装备管理信息系统的特点,分析了目前现有同步机制中存在的问题,设计和实现了基于ETL技术和XML技术的数据同步机制.该同步机制保证了数据传输的实时性、数据的一致性和完整性,为今后多级之间分布式装备管理数据库的数据同步提供一定的理论依据和借鉴经验.     

战术数据链网络设计优化方法

网络设计优化问题直接关系到战术数据链系统效能的发挥。在分析数据链系统中不同消息类别有不同系统响应时间要求的基础上,提出了一种新的网络设计优化方法。通过建立模型讨论了单个数据链轮询网络的轮询周期、网络成员容量、每个轮询周期内各成员的点名次数等因素间的数学关系。并以Link-11为例进行分析计算。结果表明,该分析方法有效可行,为解决战术数据链网络设计及优化问题提供了一种思路。     

条件证据网络的地面防空体系能力评估

针对地面防空体系能力需求满足度评估中输入的评估信息的不确定性问题,提出了基于条件证据网络的地面防空体系能力需求满足度评估方法。该方法利用专家知识和历史信息进行条件证据网络参数建模,即利用条件信度函数描述下层能力或指标满足需求的程度与上层能力需求满足度之间的关系,在此基础上,利用条件证据网络正向推理得出体系能力满足使命任务需求的信度分布。最后用一个算例,分析了该方法的可用性和有效性。     

基于双层规划的通信干扰兵力部署优化

投掷式通信干扰机是未来通信对抗装备发展的一种趋势,针对其压制无线战术通信的兵力部署优化问题,引入"通信干扰压制概率"和"通信干扰效益"两个指标,建立了基于双层规划的兵力部署优化模型,上层规划以整体通信干扰效益最大化为目标,下层为随机机会约束规划,以通信干扰压制概率满足一定置信水平为约束,以干扰机需求量最小化为目标。采用随机模拟、遗传算法和动态规划相结合的混合智能算法求解双层规划模型,并通过算例分析验证了模型的有效性。     

基于IEEE 1588频率补偿算法的研究

为了满足网络高精度同步亚微秒级的精度要求,研究了一种频率补偿算法。该算法可以动态地对系统中时钟节点的晶振频率进行补偿,以此来解决由于晶振的时漂、温漂以及本身固有的抖动、漂移和偏差导致的时钟晶振频率的不稳定性问题,从而使时钟具有良好的守时性,保证了主从时钟的偏差恒定。仿真分析表明:当主从时钟由于晶振频率不同产生偏差值时,随着频率补偿算法的执行,频率补偿方案的确能够提高晶振频率,减小时钟周期,使从时钟尽量与主时钟保持一致,从而验证了该算法的可行性和有效性。     

一种基于TTE调度表的资源分配算法

时间触发以太网(TTE)通过精确的全局时间同步,使时间触发(TT)消息具有严格的时间确定性。TTE交换机在接收不同的TTE端系统传来的TT消息时,TT消息可能会发生冲突从而使数据包丢失。主要提出一种交换机接收端调度表资源分配算法,在保证整个网络时钟精确同步的前提下,通过预先设计好的任务调度表,使交换机在接收各个端系统发送的TT流量过程中避免了消息的冲突,减少了数据的丢失。     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

The UK,interrogation and Iraq, 2003–2008

The UK’s interrogation operations during the conflict in Iraq (2003–2008) are often portrayed by the media as involving significant amounts of mistreatment. This article demonstrates that these practices are not necessarily representative of the UK’s interrogation operations across this conflict. In doing so it contributes to the limited literature on the practice of interrogation and on the UK’s combat operations in Iraq. The UK’s interrogation capability, and therefore its intelligence-gathering capability, is shown to have rested primarily with the military’s Joint Forward Interrogation Team (JFIT). The JFIT suffered from limitations to the number, training and experience of its interrogators and interpreters. It is argued that maintaining a permanent, higher level of preparedness for interrogation by the British armed forces is desirable.     

Remembering and forgetting Mirambo: Histories of war in modern Africa

ABSTRACT

While the study of organised violence is considered essential to understanding the history of the West, and accordingly imbued with various layers of meaning and remembrance, war is widely regarded as inimical to the modern nation in Africa and stable development more broadly. Using examples drawn from primarily from East Africa, this paper considers the ways in which warfare in the deeper (‘precolonial’) past has been framed and envisioned in recent decades, in particular by governments whose own roots lie in revolutionary armed struggle and who began life as guerrilla movements. While in some cases particular elements of the deeper past were indeed mobilised in pursuit of contemporary political goals, in many other scenarios histories of precolonial violence were beheld as problematic and unworthy of remembrance. This paper highlights the paradox and ambiguity which has attended the memory of key aspects of Africa’s deeper past.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

SIM—LISP:一个通信网络管理专家系统外壳的设计与实现

本文介绍了笔者为开发名为OONMES的网络管理专家系统所实现的一个简单专家系统工具SIM-LISP。SIM-LISP是一个用C/C++语言来实现的模拟LISP语言的可调用函数集,它短小精巧,速度快,可以完成针对网管专家系统的事实或规则知识的表示、匹配、合一和推理等基本操作,并有与知识对象的连接功能,是网管专家系统内核实现的支撑环境。     

Al Qaida on the US invasion of Afghanistan in their own words

This article consists of selected translations from captured interviews and dairies of Al Qaida members. The time period covered is from mid-2001 to early 2002 and concerns their operations in Afghanistan. The material clearly conveys a range of emotion, from confident to despondent, as well as efforts to contest the US actions. The first several pages give the reader context and some possible “lessons learned,” but the story(ies) are best told by the Al Qaida members themselves. All names are pseudonyms.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.