The Randomization of Terrorist Attacks

The purpose of this article is to explore the economic theoretical foundations of the idea that rational terrorist organizations deliberately randomize their attacks (by type, timing, location, and targets) to generate uncertainty and intimidation. A choice theoretic framework is applied to the analysis of the terrorist organization's behavior to determine whether welfare (utility) gains from the randomization of terrorist attacks are plausible and feasible. The randomization of attacks can appear to promise higher amounts of political influence for each resource input but it turns out that randomization cannot manufacture a situation where higher amounts of political influence are obtained for each resource input.The results imply that, rather than randomization and instability, the rational terrorist organization is more likely to prefer stability. The findings and implications provide a theoretical explanation for the non-randomness of terrorist attacks.Thismay be one small step towards explaining the patterns – non-randomness – in the time-series of terrorist incidents.     

反舰导弹“双一”攻击最大攻击角计算方法

针对反舰导弹"双一"攻击作战中航路攻击角的制订缺乏定量依据、飞行航路中转弯角影响考虑不足等问题,研究最大攻击角计算方法。从反舰导弹飞行航路的航路点数量、转弯角、航路点间距、航程等方面对约束条件进行建模;提出了以攻击角最大、航程最短为目标函数的双目标规划方法;分析了航路点间距、航路点转弯角之间的关系。最后仿真计算了航路点数量确定与变化两种情况下的最大攻击角。结果表明:随着航路点数量的增加,反舰导弹最大攻击角迅速增大,但对反舰导弹的航程提出了更高要求;若过度追求大攻击角,将难以发挥反舰导弹的射程优势。     

Generalized programming by linear approximation of the dual gradient: Equality constraints

A modified generalized programming procedure is presented for solving concave programming problems with equality constraints. The procedure constructs convenient linear approximations of the gradient of the dual and finds points where the approximating functions vanish. In the quadratic programming case, the procedure is finitely convergent. Global convergence is established for the non-quadratic case. Illustrative numerical examples are included.     

Properties of an approximate hazard transform

The calculation of the exact reliability of complex systems is a difficult and tedious task. Consequently simple approximating techniques have great practical value. The hazard transform of a system is an invertible transformation of its reliability function which is convenient and useful in both applied and theoretical reliability work. A simple calculus for finding an approximate hazard transform for systems formed by series and parallel combinations of components is extended so that it can be used for any coherent system. The extended calculus is shown to lead to conservative approximations. A first order version of the extended calculus is also discussed. This method of approximation is even more simple to use, but is not always conservative. Examples of its application indicate that it is capable of giving quite accurate results.     

A stock redistribution model

Multi-depot supply systems are subject to stock distribution imbalances; i. e., the fraction of total system stock located at a depot may be too small to support the fraction of system demand expected to be placed on it. In the supply system of concern, a cutomer is always satisfied if there is stock anywhere in the system. Stock redistributions to correct imbalances may reduce both transportation costs and customer waiting times. A model for determining optimum redistribution quantities is formulated, and a practical method of solution for the two depot case is described. Selected numerical illustrations are given.     

BTT控制系统半实物仿真方案 设计及试验结果分析

BTT控制系统半实物仿真试验以BTT试验器为背景,配合BTT控制技术研究可全面验证导弹控制系统设计。给出了半实物仿真试验方案、方法及试验结果分析,试验结果表明BTT控制系统设计满足最小侧滑(近似零侧滑角)倾斜转弯的技术指标要求,半实物仿真试验方法正确。     

营房实力综合数据分析技术

在营房系统中,营房实力主要包括个人基本情况及住房情况、家属住房情况两大类的知识。营房住房标准分为:按标准住房、超标准住房、未达标准住房、无住房。结合营房实力数据的基本特点,充分利用了先进的数据仓库技术,在数据挖掘和商业智能服务等方面作了深入的探讨,通过营房实力知识对数据进行归类统计,提出了基于知识的统计系统,建立了营房住用多维数据模型和个人住房情况多维数据模型,实现了对营房住用情况和个人住房情况等营房数据的多维分析。     

Computational analysis of MMAP[K]/PH[K]/1 queues with a mixed FCFS and LCFS service discipline

This paper studies a queueing system with a Markov arrival process with marked arrivals and PH‐distribution service times for each type of customer. Customers (regardless of their types) are served on a mixed first‐come‐first‐served (FCFS) and last‐come‐first‐served (LCFS) nonpreemptive basis. That is, when the queue length is N (a positive integer) or less, customers are served on an FCFS basis; otherwise, customers are served on an LCFS basis. The focus is on the stationary distribution of queue strings, busy periods, and waiting times of individual types of customers. A computational approach is developed for computing the stationary distribution of queue strings, the mean of busy period, and the means and variances of waiting times. The relationship between these performance measures and the threshold number N is analyzed in depth numerically. It is found that the variance of the virtual (actual) waiting time of an arbitrary customer can be reduced by increasing N. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 399–421, 2000     

A continuous-review inventory system with lost sales and variable lead time

Using a system-point (SP) method of level crossings, we derive the stationary distribution of the inventory level (stock on hand) in a continuous-review inventory system with compound Poisson demand, Erlang as well as hyperexponentially distributed lead times, and lost sales. This distribution is then used to formulate long-run average cost functions with/without a service level constraint. Some numerical results are also presented, and compared with the Hadley and Whitin heuristic. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 259–278, 1998     

仿生机器人运动建模与控制研究进展

综述了几何方法在仿生机器人运动建模和控制中应用的最新成果,探讨了在统一框架下处理多种机器人运动问题的可行性.